Series Preview/Know Your Foe: Houston Astros @ Atlanta Braves

Last stop on this road trip...and last non-AL West series the Astros will play in the regular season.

Summarized by AI ⓘ

What is the story about?

Having lost the first two series on this nine-game road trip, Houston hopes for better tidings as face-off against Atlanta in Cobb County

Braves Standings:

65-81(4th in the NL East) 21.0 Games Back, 11.0 Games Back of the last NL Wild Card
Home Record: 35-37 (Astros Road Record: 36-36)
Record vs. AL West: 3-9 (Astros vs NL East: 9-3)
Last 10: 4-6 [WLLWWLLWLL] (HOU: 4-6 [WLWLLWLLWL])
2025 Record vs. Houston: First Meeting

All-Time Record vs. Houston: 402-339
Playoff Record vs. Houston: 16-9 (1997 NLDS (3-0); 1999 NLDS (3-1); 2001 NLDS (3-0); 2004 NLDS (L 2-3); 2005 NLDS (2-3); 2021 WS (W 4-2))

Braves this season: It is between them and Baltimore for biggest disappointment. After the brutal triple-threat double-header whereby the Braves snuck into the playoffs as a Wild Card, only to get swept by the Padres ended their 2024, the Braves couldn’t wait for 2025, as they sought to get their second World Series of the 2020s. Then 2025 arrived,

which got off to as bad a start as possible, as Atlanta opened 0-7. However, they did manage to get over .500 at 24-23 on May 18th. After that derptastic start, the Braves thought it was back to playoff contention. Unfortunately, that was the high-water mark for the season. Between the classic combo of injuries and ineffective play, Atlanta quickly sank from dreams of contention to also-ran status. They effectively sold at the deadline and the second half of the season has just been playing out the string with hopes of a rebound in 2026.

Braves Leaders

Offense: [NOTE: Stat leaders based eligibility for batting title and who is currently on the roster, unless otherwise noted]

HR: 1B Matt Olsen (23)
RBI: 1B Matt Olsen (83)
BA: 1B Matt Olsen (.271)
OPS: 1B Matt Olsen (.831) [Ronald Acuña has a .880 OPS, but is not eligible for the batting title]

Pitching: [NOTE: Stat leaders based on eligibility for ERA title and who is currently on the roster, unless otherwise noted]

ERA: (The Braves currently do not have any pitchers eligible for the ERA title. Relief pitcher Pierce Johnson hold a 2.35 ERA across 57 appearances while reigning NL Cy Young winner Chris Sale has a 2.52 ERA over 18 starts)
Wins: Bryce Elder (7)
Saves: Raisel Iglesias (25)
WHIP: (The Braves currently do not have any pitchers eligible for the ERA title. Relief pitcher Raisel Iglesias has a 1.04 WHIP in 63 appearances, as does fellow reliever Dylan Lee)

Projected Pitching Matchups (SUBJECT TO CHANGE)

Friday, September 12 @ 6:15 p.m. CDT: TBD vs. Hurston Waldrep (4-0, 1.33 ERA)
Saturday, September 13 @ 6:15 p.m. CDT: Hunter Brown (11-7, 2.25 ERA) vs. Bryce Elder (7-9, 5.35 ERA)
Saturday, September 13 @ 6:15 p.m. CDT: Framber Valdez (12-9, 3.42 ERA) vs Joey Wentz (5-6, 5.82 ERA)

Field Position Starters (SUBJECT TO CHANGE) (BA/OBP/SLG)

C: Drake Baldwin (.270/.340/.438)
1B: Matt Olsen (.271/.368/.463)
2B: Ozzie Albies (.241/.306/.371)
3B: Nacho Alvarez (.248/.321/.333)
SS: Ha-Seong Kim (.223/.290/.330)
LF: Jurickson Profar (.257/.353/.471)
CF: Michael Harris II: (.241/.261/.396)
RF: Ronald Acuña Jr.: (.272/.396/.484)
DH: Marcell Ozuna: (.228/.355/.404)

Braves Offense: The Braves live roughly middle of the pack in hitting stats (15th in runs scored, 20th in BA, 14th in OBP, 18th in SLG). Given the talent in the lineup, it is hard to imagine that they would fall off that much. The line-up, as it stands now, is paced by 1B Matt Olsen, who leads the squad in most categories. The loss of Acuña Jr. and Sean Murphy to injury did much to hinder the capabilities of the batting order. However, the team might bring home an NL Rookie of the Year Award with the play of Catcher Drake Baldwin. While hitting a bit of the proverbial rookie wall, he is still leading his peers in several categories. The injuries have also limited Acuña’s great speed capabilities, as he has not come anywhere close to matching his 73 steals from 2023. As of now, the Braves rate 26th in stolen bags (73), putting them two behind the Astros.

Braves Pitching/Defense: The pitching is not quite as quality as the batting, as the Braves live in the lower tiers of MLB in key stats (22nd in ERA, 19th in WHIP, 20th in BAA). The staff does not lack for talent, but injuries and inconsistency have plagued the rotation, especially earlier in the season when the year was still in the balance. Chris Sale has not had the same luck he had most of last season (save his missing the final week, to include the playoffs), especially with injuries, but his numbers are solid enough when he pitches. Strider’s return from injury has been a mixed bag, with the team’s results reflecting that. Some of the younger arms, like Waltrep, a recent call-up, are pitching well enough to offer hope for a rebound in 2026. The bullpen rates 21st in MLB, so that is not necessarily helping the squad. Igelsias has been mostly effective in the closer role with Dylan Johnson and Pierce Johnson as the main bullpen arms. While the pitching part of the defense doesn’t rank all that well, the fielding does. They are 4th in MLB in defensive runs saved and commit the second fewest errors in the big leagues.

Most Dangerous Player: P Hurston Waldrep. You saw his stats earlier. However, this touted prospect is making history on the mound. His first 4 starts saw him surrender only 2 total earned runs, winning all four, something not seen since Fernando Valenzuela back in 1981. He has a no-decision in his last three starts, but Atlanta won 2 of those 3, and Waldrep did not surrender more than 2 runs in any of those starts. The team did lose his last start against Seattle, where he went 5 innings, surrendering two earned runs in a no-decision. Still, this is one of the few bright spots in this bust of a 2025 for Atlanta. Maybe teams are figuring him out, but have you seen the Houston offense as of late? Plus, Houston has a bad habit of helping prime rookies look good (so maybe watch out for Baldwin as well).

Injuries: Well, would you be surprised to hear that Atlanta has faced a number of those all season? One of the reasons why they are where they are. The list:

C Sean Murphy (Hip); Out for rest of season: Projected Return: 2026
3B Austin Riley (Abdomen); 60-Day IL; Projected Return: 2026
P Aaron Bummer (Shoulder); IL since Aug 24; Projected Return: TBD
P Joe Jimenez (Knee); 60-Day IL; Projected Return: 2026
P Reynaldo Lopez (Shoulder); 60-Day IL; Projected Return: 2026
P Spencer Schwellenbach (Elbow); 60-Day IL; Projected Return: 2026
P Grant Holmes (Elbow); 60-Day IL; Projected Return: 2026
P AJ Smith-Shawver (Forearm); 60-Day IL; Projected Return: 2026

Intangibles: Since that 2021 World Series, the Braves continue to fall further away from adding a second this decade. That this team won’t play in October has to sting the current crop of veterans. That they trail the Marlins must really rankle. While the front office received plaudits for locking up the core of players that won in 2021 and had strong 2022 and 2023 regular seasons, the chances to get another ring continue to diminish with time as more of those players move on to higher paydays/etc. Yes, Atlanta is getting a chance to see what some of the minor leaguers can do for the team in the future, but the end game for Atlanta’s braintrust is winning championships. Perhaps it is a blessing that they aren’t dead last in the NL East (Nationals enter the chat). However, this coming offseason is going to be critical if Atlanta wants to make 2025 an anomaly. In particular, does the long-time skipper Snitker decide to hang up the uniform? If so, Atlanta is going to have an even more interesting offseason.

Series Outlook: At this point, what more can be said about the Astros and their second half struggles? They struggle to score runs and they aren’t pitching lights out like they did in May-June. There are more questions about Valdez’s mindset than his pitching performance and the rest of the staff, such as it exists, save Brown, are trying to recover from injury/avoid injury. A trip to play a Braves team that effectively saw 2025 end for them long ago presents as much fear as opportunity. The Mariners might finally be able to take advantage of the Astros’ stumbling and even the Arlington Rangers are legitimately back in the hunt for the postseason, to say nothing of the AL West crown. After this foray into Atlanta, it is all AL West opponents the rest of the way, a division where Houston currently holds a losing record. Can they use the trip to Cobb Country as a springboard, or does Houston leave Atlanta battered, bruised and limping back home?

NATIONAL COVERAGE: