What is the story about?
As election results began to roll in throughout New Jersey, New York City, and Virginia, college football fans were anxiously awaiting a different kind of result to come out. That’s right: the College Football Playoff committee met for the first time to reveal its initial rankings of the season, which were revealed Tuesday evening. The committee will release updated rankings each Tuesday, leading to the CFP bracket being revealed on Sunday, December 7th (the day after conference championship games).
With that, it is time for the latest evolution of my national college football series. What started as Around The Big Ten (which Andrew has masterfully taken over), leading to me spurring the National College Football Report, has shifted to the weekly AP Top 25 breakdown and will now be the College Football Playoff Rankings Report, looking at the committee’s top 25 teams and what the bracket looks like as we get closer to Selection Day.
This season, regardless of conference championship status, the top four teams will receive a first-round bye, with seeds 5-12 playing first-round games at the campus of the higher seed. The remaining games will be at the traditional New Year’s Six bowl sites, leading up to the National Championship Game on January 19th at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens.
Without further ado, let us take a look at what the College Football Playoff committee has provided us with!
- Ohio State (8-0) opened as the projected top seed in the initial CFP rankings. The Buckeyes are undefeated and have been cruising through their schedule, with their closest win coming against #11 Texas, 14-7 in the season opener. Ohio State’s rivalry game against Michigan will likely determine whether they retain the top spot, as will their Big Ten Championship Game result, with OSU all but guaranteed a spot.
- Indiana (9-0) slotted in right behind Ohio State as they have in the AP poll for several weeks now. Although IU looks more impressive in terms of margin of victory, they will have to prove that they are indeed better than Ohio State head-to-head, with the Hoosiers and Buckeyes almost certainly headed for a marquee Big Ten Championship clash in Indianapolis.
- Texas A&M (8-0) sits atop the SEC and is currently the lone undefeated team in the league, which boasts seeds 3-6. A Lone Star showdown with Texas in Austin for rivalry weekend will be the Aggies’ biggest remaining test before Texas A&M will almost definitely compete for an SEC Championship in Atlanta.
- Alabama (7-1) has overcome an opening loss to Florida State to become one of the top teams in the SEC, ranking ahead of Georgia due to a head-to-head victory (per usual). The Crimson Tide survived four straight ranked opponents, but will host LSU and #12 Oklahoma before the paycheck game against Eastern Illinois and the Iron Bowl at Jordan-Hare Stadium.
- Georgia (7-1) survived a tough test against a scrappy Florida team and has won four straight after falling to Alabama. The Bulldogs’ toughest remaining tests are against the #11 Longhorns and #17 Yellow Jackets, who sit behind several other ACC teams despite their 8-1 record.
- Ole Miss (8-1) sits in sixth with its lone loss coming to Georgia. The Rebels have since defeated #12 Oklahoma and South Carolina and have a softer end to their regular season, with The Citadel and Florida coming to Vaught-Hemingway Stadium, followed by the Egg Bowl at Mississippi State.
- BYU (8-0) is the lone undefeated Big 12 team and slots in seventh in the first CFP poll. The Cougars needed overtime to defeat unranked Arizona, but proceeded to beat current #13 Utah and then Iowa State on the road. A massive showdown against Texas Tech could be for the top ranking in the conference.
- Texas Tech (8-1) ranks right behind BYU and will have the chance to surpass them with a huge game against the Cougars in Lubbock this Saturday. The Red Raiders’ lone loss came to Arizona State, which has been in and out of the AP poll, but is not currently ranked in either the AP or CFP polls.
- Oregon (7-1) is the third and final Big Ten team currently in the playoff field, with its one loss against Indiana preventing the Ducks from being ranked higher. A massive showdown with a surprisingly strong Iowa team will be a must-win for Oregon, as will rivalry games against USC and Washington, with all three opponents being ranked in the first CFP poll.
- Notre Dame (6-2) is the last at-large team in the field, as Virginia and Memphis currently hold the final two seeds as projected conference champions. The Fighting Irish overcame two quality losses and will look to get to ten wins this season with no more ranked opponents to face after defeating USC two weeks ago.
- Texas (7-2) is the first team to miss the field in this projection. The Longhorns may have the season’s best loss to Ohio State, but a loss to unranked Florida is hindering them at this time. UT also narrowly avoided what would have been consequential upsets with overtime wins over Kentucky and Mississippi State, and nearly blew a 24-point lead to Vanderbilt last week. Texas likely needs to at least split the Georgia and A&M games while taking care of Arkansas to have a chance of moving into the field.
- Oklahoma (7-2) is the second team out of the picture, with a 23-6 loss to Texas and a 34-26 loss to Ole Miss blemishing their resume. The Sooners won an important road game over Tennessee to stay in the picture, but will head to Alabama after their second bye. They will likely have to win out the rest of the way and receive some help to move into the playoff picture.
- Utah (7-2) remains in the conversation with its record and has a chance to stack wins against unranked competition the rest of the season. A Big 12 championship appearance would go a long way for their candidacy, but the Utes will likely need Texas Tech to take a second loss to the Cougars, as BYU and Tech both have head-to-head victories over them this season.
- Virginia (8-1) is the projected #11 seed as the highest-ranked ACC team by the committee. The Cavaliers have won three overtime games this season, with a two-point win over Washington State and a ten-point victory at California being the other recent victories for UVA. What is notable is that Virginia is ranked higher than any other ACC team, including 8-1 Georgia Tech. Both programs have their loss to NC State, but Virginia’s does not count in the conference standings, giving them the advantage.
- Louisville (7-1) is right outside the playoff as the second-ranked ACC team in this projection. The Cardinals secured a road victory at Miami, with their lone loss coming in overtime to Virginia. Louisville also finishes the season with four unranked opponents as it looks for an ACC Championship Game berth.
- Vanderbilt (7-2) fell just short of a miraculous comeback at Texas and slipped to #16 in the first CFP poll. They will need to win out to have any shot at a playoff berth, with two other 7-2 teams ahead of them also currently missing the field.
- Georgia Tech (8-1) fans may be disappointed with their initial ranking, as the Yellow Jackets are projected behind Virginia and Louisville despite being tied with the Cavaliers and currently ahead of the Cardinals in the ACC standings. Although GT does not currently have a signature victory (Clemson is 3-5), the Jackets can change that with a victory over Georgia on Thanksgiving weekend.
- Miami (FL) (6-2) suffered its second loss of the year during its first trip outside the Sunshine State, falling to SMU 26-20 on Saturday. What started so promisingly with a victory over Notre Dame and a sweep of the major Florida football teams (plus BCU) has all fallen apart as Carson Beck got turnover-happy in both losses to Louisville and the Mustangs. Four more wins will likely not save them, as Miami is currently behind six teams in the ACC standings and three in the CFP poll.
- USC (6-2) survived a trip to Lincoln in a blackout game, with Dylan Raiola getting injured at the worst time to prevent a comeback for the Huskers. The Trojans will need to win out to have a chance at a bid, which includes a visit to Autzen Stadium to face the Ducks in late November.
- Iowa (6-2) has yet to be ranked in the AP poll, but is 20th in the first CFP poll after an undefeated October, one which saw the Hawkeyes shut out Wisconsin and blow bowl-eligible Minnesota out 41-3. Next up is a huge test against Oregon, but the Hawks are a couple of wins away from entering the CFP conversation. Its two losses are to Iowa State and Indiana, which came by a total of eight points.
- Michigan (7-2) survived a major upset scare by defeating Purdue 21-16 in Ann Arbor. The Wolverines overcame a shaky performance by Bryce Underwood with a 185-yard outburst from running back Jordan Marshall and did enough defensively as well. UM will look to get to ten wins and could be a serious candidate for a playoff berth if it can upset the top-ranked Buckeyes and push its streak to five years.
- Missouri (6-2) had the week off after falling to Vanderbilt, which likely slammed the door on its playoff chances. If the Tigers can upset the #3 Aggies and #11 Sooners, the committee will have to reevaluate, but defeating Texas A&M looks like a long shot for all but a handful of teams in the country right now.
- Washington (6-2) was finally ranked in the AP poll this week and gets the nod in the CFP poll as well. The Huskies have a strong chance to win their next three games against Wisconsin, Purdue, and UCLA, but will also need to beat Oregon and get lots of help for playoff consideration.
- Pittsburgh (7-2) is quietly ranked and is flying completely under the radar despite its record. An awful loss to West Virginia likely disqualifies Pitt from at-large consideration, but if the Panthers can somehow survive a brutal last three weeks (Notre Dame, Georgia Tech, and Miami), they should be in the ACC Championship game and will have multiple marquee victories on their resume.
- Tennessee (6-3) has the last spot in this poll and is #23 in the AP poll, but the Volunteers have yet to defeat a ranked opponent and sport razor-thin wins against Mississippi State and Arkansas. Their SEC status, as well as close losses to Georgia and Oklahoma, are keeping the Vols hanging by a thread, but they are nowhere near a playoff berth with three losses and still have to face Vanderbilt to end the season.
Memphis (8-1) is the current projected Group of Five representative, being ranked #22 in the latest AP poll but unranked by the CFP committee. No G5 teams are currently ranked in the CFP Top 25, giving the committee the decision on which team gets the final automatic bid. With the Tigers being 8-1 and holding the head-to-head victory over South Florida, they are in the driver’s seat for the bid at this time. Defeating Tulane this Friday could further cement Memphis’s first-ever appearance in the College Football Playoff.
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