Well, that was disappointing. The Diamondbacks followed up holding their own against the Dodgers with getting the tar beat out of them by the struggling, but offensively proficient, Washington Nationals. Thanks more to the other teams around them also struggling than their own efforts, they are still in a playoff position. Worst case scenario is that they will start this series tied with the Padres for the third wild card spot. Not ideal, but could be worse after a losing homestand they just experienced.
They will stay in the NL East for their next opponent and take on the Miami Marlins. Miami comes into the series 31-35, but unlike the Nationals, they do not have one of the best offenses in baseball, so hopefully that will be a point in the Diamondbacks favor. However, they are on a bit of a hotstreak, having swept those same Nationals and then took two out of three against the Tampa Bay Rays. They are, in fact, a rather streaky team recently. For example, before the Nationals, they were swept by the Mets, but just a week early, they had swept the Mets. If that continues, it may be another point for the Diamondbacks.
Game 1 — 6/9, 3:40 PM: Zac Gallen (-0.7 bWAR, 3-5, 5.32 ERA/78 ERA+, 1.52 WHIP) vs. Max Meyer (2.2 bWAR, 6-0, 2.81 ERA/144 ERA+, 1.04 WHIP)
The fall of Zac Gallen should be studied, but we are at the point where we just need to accept that he is who he is, and there is nothing that’s going to change that. He is a pitcher who is going to give up four or five runs every start maybe more. He isn’t going to strike many out, and he’s going to have a handful of walks. That’s just all there is to it. His best games have come against sub .500 teams, so maybe there’s a chance, but I’m not holding my breath. If they win this game, it will be because of the offense and the bullpen.
Max Meyer has been phenomenal all season long. He’s only given up more than three runs twice. One of those times was when he faced the Mets on back to back starts, which always seems to be advantage: offense in this situations. That six run performance was two starts ago, but he followed it up by getting right back on track versus the Nationals going seven innings of one run, two hit baseball.
Game 2 — 6/10, 3:40 PM: Ryne Nelson (-0.2 bWAR, 2-4, 4.60 ERA/90 ERA+, 1.17 WHIP) vs. Ryan Gusto (-0.3 bWAR, 10.80 ERA/40 ERA+, 1.80 WHIP)
Nelson’s season is a tale of two months so far. In March/April, he had an ERA of 7.71. In April and one start in June? The script has completely flipped and is now 2.89. Results are always great, but there is reason for concern. Both months saw him sport a FIP above 5, suggesting that he was slightly unlucky to start the season and now is getting incredibly lucky as the season progresses. It’s simplistic, but it’s hard to ignore that he is getting 6.8 SO/9 this season, compared to 7.7 and 7.5 in ‘25 and ‘24 respectively. Couple that with home runs jumping to 1.9 this season and 1.0 in the previous two, and slight upticks in walks each season, it’s not hard to see why his fielding independent stats don’t like his performance much.
Ryan Gusto has opened a couple games for the Marlins, and it hasn’t gone great. He’s done it twice since being recalled from AAA and he’s gone two innings and given up three runs in both games. Unsure who will be taking over for him when he is done opening, but the Diamondbacks should just focus on taking advantage of him being in while he is.
Game 3 — 6/11, 10:10 AM: Merrill Kelly (-0.3 bWAR, 5-4, 5.71 ERA/73 ERA+, 1.49 WHIP) vs. Tyler Phillips (1.3, 0-1, 2.08 ERA/196 ERA+, 1.36 WHIP)
Merrill was starting to look a lot more Mainstay-like in the month of May. He started out rough, giving up six runs to the Cubs on 5/3, but tightened things up significantly the rest of the way, including some genuinely impressive outings like his complete game against the Rockies. However, last time out was… subpar. He ran into the buzzsaw that apparently is the Washington Nationals’ offense and gave up seven runs in five innings.
Tyler Phillips was the last pitcher that Gusto opened for, and he didn’t do much better. 4 2/3 inning, three runs, three walks, and seven hits is not going to get the job done often, and it didn’t for him this time either. He had spent most of his time this season relieving, but they’ve been stretching him out over the past few appearances. Based off past results, expecting five innings and two or three runs would be reasonable.
Conclusion
I don’t think it will come as much of a surprise that I consider the Gallen game to be a lost cause. I just can’t bring myself to have even moderate expectations for him at this point. Nelson, well that’s just a question of if the luck continues. Maybe avoid the home runs and get a couple extra strike outs and he’ll be okay. Kelly… should be fine and I’ll give the advantage to him over a reliver who is getting stretched out. All told, I do think they win this series, but they’re going to make it closer than it should be.
