The Minnesota Vikings concluded their mandatory minicamp last week, but Kevin O’Connell said the starting quarterback competition between Kyler Murray and J.J. McCarthy would continue into training camp. Just how long into training camp it would continue was a little vague. Equally ambiguous was O’Connell’s explanation about how snaps may be divided between the two quarterbacks in training camp and what the criteria for naming a starting quarterback would be, other than the one who elevates the team
the most. He also said that while they track data on the two quarterbacks in practice, it may come down to more of a ‘feel thing’, where both he and the quarterbacks would know who felt better running the offense.
He did, however, assure everyone that there is a plan in place that will both allow that competition to play out and provide ample time for the eventual starting quarterback to be fully prepared for the regular season and the Packers week one, despite that those two goals may very well be mutually exclusive. Below is a link to O’Connell’s full remarks at the end of minicamp, including the quarterback competition, beginning at 3:30 of the video.
Mutually Exclusive
Allowing the quarterback competition to play out may very well be mutually exclusive with fully preparing the starting quarterback for the season. The reason largely comes down to reps, but there are other factors too. But let’s consider what allowing the competition to play out looks like, and then what fully preparing the starting quarterback for the season looks like.
Letting the Competition Play Out
If the Vikings are going to let the competition play out, surely that will involve competing and splitting reps equally through at least the joint practices against the Ravens, which are scheduled for August 19-20. The reason for that is because team drills in joint practices are the closest thing to real games in training camp, including preseason games for the most part. Having both quarterbacks show what they can do in as close to a real game situation as possible is the ultimate test of which quarterback can elevate the team the best. Having them prepare equally up to that point, and potentially beyond, in terms of having equal reps also makes sense so one doesn’t have a built-in advantage over the other in working with the offense. Preseason games may offer some value as well, but given other teams are typically playing basic schemes and mostly non-starters, they don’t provide a close approximation of a real game. Results can be misleading.
In recent years, joint practices have been one of the more important parts of training camp in terms of player evaluations at every position, so it only makes sense that any quarterback competition includes them as well.
If the competition was cut short after, say, one week of training camp, or one quarterback getting the lion’s share of the reps at that point before ultimately being named the starter, was it really a competition? At this point prior to training camp, J.J. McCarthy and Kyler Murray have each had about 80 reps in somewhat competitive 7-on-7 drills (just over 50 in OTAs/minicamp open to the media). I would imagine that in a week of splitting reps in training camp, they each might get another 80-100 competitive reps, maybe more although that would likely include hand-offs, with probably less than half in fully padded practices.
Is that enough to decide the competition? No. Unless it was never really a competition to begin with. In which case, why bother having one?
Fully Preparing the Starting Quarterback
In past seasons, Kirk Cousins, Sam Darnold, and J.J. McCarthy have received all the first-team reps during both the off-season practices and training camp as they prepared for their first season in Kevin O’Connell’s scheme. I believe all of them have said at one time or another that it was the most difficult scheme for them to learn. I don’t recall any of them saying they had too much time or too many reps or they had got it down well in advance of the regular season.
This season, Kyler Murray- who as a veteran isn’t known for his preparation the way Cousins and Darnold are- has been tasked with learning O’Connell’s scheme while getting only half the reps of those in seasons past. At least so far. If that were to continue through the joint practices as above before being named the starter, that would leave basically two weeks with full reps to be fully prepared in terms of knowing and adapting the scheme before a week of game prep prior to the Packers game. That would be at least 300 fewer reps than any other veteran starter had to learn O’Connell’s scheme during the off-season and training camp. There is no way to get those back. And assuming it takes Murray the same number of reps to learn the scheme as it took Cousins or Darnold, and we have no way of knowing whether that is the case or not, that likely means at least a few more weeks during the regular season before Murray is where Darnold or Cousins were at week one. That’s not having a plan. That’s planning to fail.
And beyond Murray mastering the scheme, there is also less time for the Vikings to optimize the scheme for Murray should he be named the starter. There are many aspects of O’Connell’s scheme that can be tailored to Murray and his strength as a mobile, dual-threat quarterback who can operate well outside the pocket. The 49ers made a host of changes to Bill Walsh’s west coast scheme when the 49ers went from Joe Montana to Steve Young. Those changes didn’t happen overnight, let alone be installed and practiced so they were ready for game day.
On the other hand, what if McCarthy is eventually named the starter. McCarthy may not need as much time to learn the playbook, but there are several other things that he needs to improve, most of which can only be done with more reps. First, McCarthy needs more reps to improve his accuracy, ball placement, and touch. Second, he needs to speed up his processing so he can deliver the ball on time. Third, he needs to improve his ability to get in and out of the huddle in time to read the defense and get the offense into the right play at the line of scrimmage. He struggled with all of those things throughout the season last year. If he’s to elevate the offense around him this season as the starter, he’ll need to improve all of the above. And that takes reps. Lots and lots of reps. And good coaching. And sometimes even then it can take longer and there are dozens of first-round picks over the years that never really put it all together.
Letting the competition play out in this scenario, and limiting McCarthy’s reps, is also planning to fail.
Where Things Stand Now
Right now, McCarthy still has to improve to get to the level where he can elevate the team around him. We’ve heard from multiple sources that McCarthy seems to have improved his mechanics, or they at least appear smoother or different compared to last year. But so far in the off-season program, comments have been a lot less clear on whether he’s improved his accuracy, ball placement, and ability to layer and throw with touch. The Vikings have not allowed any of McCarthy’s team-drill throws to be videoed, except the tail-end of a deep ball to Jordan Addison at the outset of OTAs.
Beat writers who attended OTAs noted McCarthy’s improved mechanics and generally characterized his 7-on-7 performance as solid or fine, but they did not talk about McCarthy throwing with touch or hitting receivers in stride like they did with Murray. They did say the ball zipped out of his hand and that he can throw the ball on a line as well as anybody- something they could have said last year too. There was one mention of his being able to throw over some defenders a couple times too but compared to Murray it seemed more like damning with faint praise. In minicamp descriptions McCarthy was described as being sharp, and most gave him the “win” because Murray threw a few interceptions, but still no mention of throwing with touch or hitting receivers in stride. The last day of minicamp didn’t get great reviews for either quarterback, with both having a couple bad throws and Murray having one of his picked.
At the end of minicamp press conference with Kevin O’Connell (link above), Ben Goessling of the Star Tribune mentioned that Wes Phillips said that the arrow was pointing up for McCarthy and asked him how that has shown up or how he assessed him during the offseason. O’Connell’s response (11:33 on link above):
I think it’s been physical, with his fundamentals and how he has tried to apply to the different types of throws- he’s now had the experience and you’re not talking about hypotheticals anymore. He can learn plays based upon reps, in many ways he’s seeing himself up on the board when either myself or Wes is installing those plays, and then he knows he’s worked on those throws and the rhythm and the timing and the trajectory of those throws, and then he gets to come out and practice them, and then he gets to go, at least in the 7-on-7s, and compete and try to apply those things. You guys have probably seen it- I know you’re not out here every day- but you’ve seen him make some of those throws and it’s been fun to just watch him totally dive into an individual improvement plan for the betterment of the group.
That response seemed to be lack anything concrete, talking about process and McCarthy ‘trying to apply’ things, which he said twice. The question seemed like the perfect occasion where if McCarthy had shown improvement in laying the ball, throwing with touch, or anticipation, or with improved accuracy or ball placement, he would have mentioned those things specifically. But he didn’t. Maybe that round-about answer was just O’Connell struggling with his thoughts in coming up with an incomplete answer, but it does seem to contrast significantly with how he described Murray the week before:
“His physical talent throwing the ball has been on display every day. The ability to throw to all three levels, layer the ball, anticipation that veteran players bring to the position.”
With Murray, based on his (and O’Connell’s) comments, and perhaps indirectly by his performance in minicamp, he seems to be more bogged down now in learning the scheme. Mandatory minicamp appeared to be more heavily focused on installing the offense, which makes sense for mandatory rather than voluntary practices, given that more of the team drills were half-speed or walk-throughs, which typically indicate an install period.
Murray said that he wasn’t really worried about the quarterback competition during minicamp, but rather about learning the offense while splitting reps:
“Having to split reps, me already being behind, not getting the amount of reps you would typically want a guy to get learning the offense, that’s probably the toughest part. Coming to a new system, learning on the fly, trying to play fast, efficient, letting loose while learning it, that’s the toughest part.”
Murray has neither had competition or split reps since college, if then. O’Connell later characterized Murray’s comments as his being uncomfortable, and that being uncomfortable but coming out on the other side can lead to growth. That may be true, but it also risks O’Connell not appreciating that Murray may need more reps to learn the offense, as Cousins and Darnold and McCarthy had in previous seasons.
Is This Really a Competition?
Neither oddsmakers, Vikings beat writers, national pundits, or (I believe) most fans really believe this to be a true competition that either quarterback can win. The implied probability of Murray winning the competition is 90% based on current odds. Kevin O’Connell saying that the competition will stretch into training camp did little to move those odds. And from the beginning, Vikings beat writers have maintained a healthy skepticism that this is really a competition. And I haven’t heard a single national pundit or NFL insider say they think McCarthy will beat out Murray. Even now Albert Breer is suggesting that after Murray said the quiet part out loud, O’Connell may be forced to move up his timetable for announcing Murray as the starter.
Breer reported back in March that O’Connell had told Murray, “He was the one guy on the market that they could see as a potential longer-range answer, rather than a one-year Band-Aid.” The Vikings briefly tried to add a second year to Murray’s contract as well.
But O’Connell says it’s a competition. I’m not sure even J.J. McCarthy or Kyler Murray believes that to be the case- McCarthy appeared skeptical in his comments about it while Murray said he isn’t worried about it.
“Organizations fail young quarterbacks before young quarterbacks fail organizations”
What this competition may be about, if it’s not a real competition as most people believe, is giving Kevin O’Connell time to save face. He made the above statement a couple years ago and it may be haunting him now. He may be waiting for a time when he feels he gave McCarthy a fair shot before naming Murray the starter, even though McCarthy’s chance of starting this season may have been close to zero from the moment the Vikings signed Kyler Murray.
The risk in doing so- letting a false competition play out too long- is not failing a young quarterback in J.J. McCarthy, but a veteran one in Kyler Murray and the rest of the team. This isn’t the old days with two-a-day practices and plenty of reps to go around. The off-season and training camp schedules have been whittled down over the years while schemes have become more complicated. All that means that time on task with the first-team offense is at a premium for a starting quarterback learning a new scheme.
At the end of the day, Kevin O’Connell said the Vikings would make a quarterback decision that is best for the team. The timing of that decision may also be important if the starting quarterback is to be fully prepared week one. Waiting too long to name a QB1 and give him all the first-team reps risks a poor start to the season and would be a disservice to the team.
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