The NFL scheduling has its quirks and in one of those quirks, the Texans and the Bills match up for the third season in a row. The Texans owned Josh Allen in the first two matchups, but we will have to see if that happens yet again. A new season also marks a new opportunity to catch up with our comrades at the other sites. Matthew Bynum has always been a joy to work with. We caught up with him to check in on the Bills before Sunday.
Battle Red Blog: The Bills achieved a lot of success under Sean McDermott
but it ultimately wasn’t enough. Why do you think he came up short?
Matthew Bynum: Sean McDermott accomplished so much as head coach of the Bills that it feels a bit unfair to say he came up short. But he did, simply because his teams never did win an AFC Championship Game, nor play in or (better) win a Super Bowl. It’s a small but significant list of items McDermott didn’t check off after nine seasons.
McDermott and general manager Brandon Beane built teams to take down the Kansas City Chiefs. Yet every time they faced KC in the playoffs, they lost despite Josh Allen playing out of his mind most of the time. McDermott came up short because he was never the best coach in playoff games against the Chiefs.
That’s enough, and a lot, but that’s not all there is to it. A very demanding coach, McDermott’s defensive scheme relied on intelligence, both individually and as a unit. Players had to be system sound in their assignments at all times, or else disaster would strike. Yet there was also a focus on a player’s RAS score. That meant trying to make it all work with two often diametrically unique types of player skill sets — the heady leader, and the instinctual athletic freak. Sure, anyone coaching an NFL team would welcome superlatives from both arenas, but McDermott relied on players being able to excel from both buckets whether or not they were capable.
Too often, McDermott’s defense proved to be the team’s playoff Achilles heel. Not always, and in no way is the offense’s failures in more than one playoff game’s final drive overlooked. But the head coach was a defensive mind and his units faltered in the biggest moments.
Time also worked against McDermott. Nearly a decade at the helm is a long time in the NFL. The reason people remember long NFL tenures is because it’s so rare. But McDermott-coached teams hold the best regular-season record in that span. You don’t just move on from a guy because he didn’t get lucky enough to play and win a Super Bowl. Well, at least not until missing out becomes a trauma-filled trend.
The Bills have a large number of catch phrases attached to their worst moments, and McDermott owns many of them. When someone mentions “13 seconds” anyone who follows the sport immediately drifts to Buffalo’s gut-wrenching overtime loss against the Kansas City Chiefs. Many thought a change should have been made after that loss. But a lot of leeway was given simply because it was Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes. It wasn’t yet time.
The trouble is that things didn’t meaningfully improve with time. With Allen, McDermott’s teams were a perennial playoff participant, and a Super Bowl favorite. The postseason was expected, all but guaranteed. Yet McDermott never could find a way toward earning the one seed. His teams were always forced to play on Wild Card Weekend, to the detriment of a severely injured defensive roster.
You’d think that if the playoffs appeared automatic, then a lot of effort would be spent on the team’s second season. But too often if felt like the only one who showed up to play was Allen. That’s unacceptable, no matter how good Allen is. They were dog-walked at home against the Cincinnati Bengals the year after 13 seconds — the same season Damar Hamlin almost died playing against those same Bengals. McDermott managed Hamlin’s trauma well, but that clearly didn’t extend into the postseason. By and large, he should be given a pass for that, but it’s the same game where the Diggs-Allen drama gained legs.
Then there was the home loss to the Chiefs the next season, which saw McDermott settle for a field goal try that wouldn’t have given them a win anyway. Instead, Buffalo missed another kick wide right (yup), and an over-matched defense folded while allowing Mahomes and company to win its first road playoff game.
Whatever a person believes or doesn’t about last season’s loss to the Broncos, the fact is that the Bills were short-handed on defense thanks to McDermott’s decision to play then-rookie cornerback Maxwell Hairston Week 18. That resulted in an injury for Hairston during the closing minutes, which kept him out of postseason play.
Sean Payton diagnosed an obvious weakness following an injury to Tre’Davious White that had Dane Jackson playing for Hairston, and it resulted in a touchdown. It’s not McDermott’s fault that the referees saw things a certain way to call the game as they did. It’s McDermott’s fault that his defense was ill-equipped to overcome injury.
If I had to guess what really happened on an acute level, it’s that McDermott probably lost the locker room. That was perhaps true years earlier (specifically Diggs), but it’s difficult to move on easily from a coach who’s automatic in the regular season. Then there’s what co-owner Terry Pegula mentioned, seeing Allen beside himself. It may be that he’d seen enough and decided the franchise’s most prolific player was beginning to run out of time due to wasted opportunities.
BRB: It’s a new era of Bills football with a new coach and new stadium. What changes are you expecting under Joe Brady?
MB: Well, we’ve been told that the vibe is more relaxed, looser at One Bills Drive. Brady is the youngest head coach in the NFL, and by all accounts he’s a player’s coach who brings a more youthful and energetic swagger. He also comes from Sean Payton’s school of hard knocks (yes, that’s a sleight Payton’s way). No Brady is not a direct clone of Payton, but it would be silly to think he won’t lean on Payton’s leadership example while trying to find his groove. He also has John Fox to help guide him, but Brady’s familiarity with the offense should benefit his transition.
I don’t necessarily expect a huge dynamic shift on offense, and it’s likely we’ll have to wait and see what the offense abandons and adds to know where he and McDermott differed. How much do you change for an offense that just finished top-three in the NFL last season?
I do expect to see running back James Cook III more involved in the passing game. He came out of college dubbed a bona fide dual-threat player, but for the most part his usage there has been as a distant second fiddle. Time will tell if Brady allows Allen to do as he pleases as a run, and if he leans more heavily into the types of west coast scheme Payton teaches.
BRB: Obviously championship windows are about the quarterback. Can you make your best case for Josh Allen to return to MVP Allen?
MB: I guess my move is to offer up that I see zero need for Allen to reascend to an MVP level simply because I still see him playing at that level. Without Allen, the Bills are fighting with the Jets for a spot in the AFC’s basement each season.
Allen raises everyone’s play around him, which included a less-than-stellar wide receivers room last season. All that Buffalo needs is competent play around Allen come playoff time. Otherwise, any MVP-worthy season by Allen will once again be little more than a regular-season award.
But to honor your ask here, I suppose I see Allen winning the MVP if he puts together a season similar to or better than his 2024 campaign, while guiding the team to greater success under a rookie head coach.
BRB: The Bills and Texans have butted heads the last two years. Who are some new Bills that will make a dramatic impact on Sunday?
MB: Hopefully everyone focused on the field at NRG becomes well-versed in wide receiver DJ Moore. He came to Buffalo by way of a trade with the Chicago Bears. To this point, the reviews have been tremendous, where it appears Allen once again has someone capable of playing a role akin to that once held by Stefon Diggs.
Skyler Bell was viewed as a draft steal for Buffalo this past April. He’d battled an injury during the summer, but put together an impressive game in the final preseason tilt. Bell could find opportunities for big plays if Houston commits too many resources elsewhere.
Beyond Moore and Bell on offense, look out for the team’s four-headed tight end room. Each of them were in the building last season, but I like Keleki Latu and especially Jackson Hawes to be bigger parts of the game plan.
Defensively, a lot has changed. The scheme shift sees Bradley Chubb in-house playing edge rusher, while a name familiar to Texans fans — C.J. Gardner-Johnson is set to make a ton of noise in the defensive backfield.
The team’s top rookie this past spring, edge rusher T.J. Parker, isn’t a starter, but he should be given a chance to impact the game in obvious passing situations. Rookie cornerback Davison Igbinosun brings a physical brand of play to outside cornerback, where he’ll likely be used to spell Maxwell Hairston or leveraged based on coverage needs.
The Bills also draft a punter, Tommy Doman Jr., who won the starting job. Is he ready for Week 1? Overall, Buffalo saw nine of its drafted rookies make the 53-man roster.
BRB: Vegas has the Bills as 1.5 point favorites. How do you see the game going? Are there any other bets you feel comfortable recommending?
MB: First off here, I’m a bit surprised at that line. It’s the Josh Allen effect, certainly. Buffalo is marching out a new first-time head coach (prior OC, yes) in Joe Brady, and a new, first-time NFL defensive coordinator in Jim Leonhard, yet they come in as the favorites against a home team with six consecutive NRG wins against them.
Look, NRG Stadium is akin to kryptonite for Allen and the Bills. The team hasn’t won in Houston since 2006, which was 10 matchups and two decades ago. The Texans may present Buffalo with its toughest defensive matchup of the season.
The fact is that we have no idea how the Bills will play, what they’ll look like on offense if it’s different than last season, and how the new 3-4 base defense will fare amid an aggressive mindset.
But there’s one thing in Buffalo’s favor: Let’s talk about Diggs again. Look, that guy is an enigma. He’s (probably still) undeniably talented and a sheer alpha on the football field. He’s also a mercurial cancer who did all he could to sabotage the Bills when things weren’t going his way — and he rarely played his best in the team’s biggest playoff moments.
Why bring him up? Because he’s not a part of this matchup, thankfully. That should help Allen, at least. I still believe that the last time these teams played, Allen forced things in trying to prove to himself and Diggs that the team was just fine without 14. They weren’t, and everyone knew it. As then a member of the Texans, Diggs got in his head and I think that played into Buffalo’s chaotic day in Houston.
I can see this game going either team’s way, to be honest. If history repeats itself, then of course the Bills have no chance at winning Sunday. But Week 1 is its own wild card, and counting out Buffalo due to history may prove foolish. All I have to do is look back to the Bills’ 2025 season opener against the Baltimore Ravens. Late into the fourth quarter it seemed as though Buffalo was heading to 0-1, yet Allen and defensive tackle Ed Oliver had other plans in the closing minutes.
To win, the Bills have to make life uncomfortable for Houston’s offense such that any defensive aggression doesn’t deal a lethal blow. That, and Allen must find a defensive weakness to exploit, even if it’s just taking what the Texans give him.
As for bets, I’m never the person someone should turn to when looking to “invest” in gambling odds. That said, whatever you like for James Cook’s player props, why not bet the over or at least take the easy, favorable odds? Josh Allen is also pretty good at throwing and running for touchdowns in the same game. Might want to look at those options.
We want to thank Matthew for taking the time to answer our questions so thoroughly. Week one is definitely one of those weeks both teams will likely look back on when either celebrating success or lamenting failure. It is finally time to begin enjoying these for real. We want to wish Matthew and the Bills the best of luck this season, but as always we hope the luck begins on Monday.
