The Royals put a frustrating first half behind them and open the second half by hosting the Padres. This is just the fourth time ever the Padres have come to town, with the Royals dropping the series the last time they played at the K in 2024.
The Padres have a $200+ million payroll, but after a hot 19-9 start, they have struggled. They had an eight-game losing streak in late June/early July, but won five of eight heading into the break.
San Diego Padres (48-48) vs. Kansas City Royals (38-59) at Kauffman
Stadium, Kansas City, MO
Padres: 3.95 runs scored/game (30th in MLB), 4.40 runs allowed/game (12th)
Royals: 4.24 runs scored/game (21st), 5.14 runs allowed/game (27th)
The Padres’ lineup has been mysteriously bad this year. Fernando Tatis Jr. went 55 games to begin the year without a home run. Manny Machado got off to a dreadful start, but is hitting .279/.372/.586 with eight home runs in his last 30 games to get his batting average over the Mendoza Line. Gavin Sheets is hitting just .176/.263/.235 against lefties, but is hitting .279/.377/.543on the road. Xander Bogaerts has a 58.5 percent groundball rate, second-highest among qualified hitters.
Ty France is a Royals-killer, hitting .368/.445/.604 with eight home runs in 39 games in his career against them. Former Royals catcher Freddy Fermin is hitting just .152/.252/.268 in 58 games and has been out with a concussion.
Only the Nationals have stolen more bases than the Padres. The Padres generally rate well defensively, particularly Bogaerts at shortstop.
Michael King is 12th in the National League in ERA, but he has the ninth-highest walk rate among qualified starters. King has a reverse split this year, with lefties hitting just .201/.288/.299 against him. He throws a sinker, change up, sweeper, and a 94 mph four-seamer.
Griffin Canning had a nice season with the Mets last year, but he has been a mess with the Padres this year. He has the third-worst ERA (6.47) of any pitcher with at least ten starts. He has pitched more than five innings just once this year, and has been used as a “bulk reliever” in some recent appearances. Opponents are hitting .333 against his change up this year. The Royals have not yet announced a starter for Saturday, although Stephen Kolek could be activated off the family emergency list.
Germán Márquez had a 6.70 ERA last year with the Rockies, the second-worst of any pitcher with at least 100 innings. He moved on to the Padres and got off to a decent start before missing two months with a forearm injury. He has pitched just 12 innings in his three starts since returning. Lefties are hitting .273/.377/.557 against the right-hander this year.
The Padres’ bullpen has a 3.68 ERA, sixth-lowest in baseball after leading all of baseball last year. Mason Miller has been the best reliever in baseball, according to fWAR, striking out a ridiculous 48.5 percent of all batters he has faced. Yuki Matsui has a 14.9 percent walk rate, ninth-highest among relievers, and a 58.8 percent flyball rate that is third-highest. Adrian Morejon has a 64.4 percent groundball rate, third-highest in baseball. Kyle Hart has given up ten runs in his last 11.2 innings.
The Padres have the kind of roster that should be competing, but they have failed to turn that talent into results. Their negative run differential and 43-53 Pythagorean record suggest this team has been fortunate to remain in the mix. Their offensive struggles may be just what the Royals’ pitching staff needs to face, but if the Royals find themselves down late, they’ll have to face a shutdown bullpen.
