That performance was the reason I believed a 12-5 season was possible. True to the Vikings’ pattern of being inconsistently consistent, they became the first team since the 1992 Denver Broncos to be shut out one week, only to do the same to an opponent the next week. Also, true to Vikings’ style, it’s almost certainly a story of too little, too late.
J.J. McCarthy delivered the first complete game of his young NFL career. Good for him. I’m thrilled he got a chance to tell his critics to pound sand.
Both his passer rating of 129.2 and QBR of 75.2 were far above his previous highs—98.5 and 50.6, respectively—achieved in Week 1’s win against the Chicago Bears. According to Next Gen Stats, McCarthy’s EPA per dropback was +0.28, a career high that ranked in the top 10 among Week 14-qualified quarterbacks. He averaged 2.56 seconds to throw Sunday, his fastest in any game this season by more than a quarter of a second. It’s also no coincidence that this was the first time this season that the Vikings’ offense truly looked in rhythm, with a game plan that didn’t feel forced or on cruise control after a historic first half by Isaiah Rodgers.
In embracing my new Debbie Downer/glass-half-empty heel persona, I’d be remiss if I didn’t point out that the performance was against a porous Commanders’ defense that ranks 30th in pass yards allowed per game, 30th in total yards per game, and 28th in points per game. When browsing the usual Vikings-related content on social media, it’s also clear that some issues with mechanics persist, and a few big plays were left on the table. The purple neurons of extraordinary bias are pushing back on this narrative, reminding me that the Ravens and Bears defenses were also weak, and McCarthy didn’t play well against either of them in November. So, by that measure, his efficient, turnover-free performance was definitely a step in the right direction.
In my last article, I mentioned that McCarthy had five games remaining to change the story. I couldn’t think of a better way to start the first chapter. If the rest of the book is as good as the beginning, then we’ll be left to wonder what might have been.
If Only This Had Happened a Month Ago
Christopher Gates hit the nail on the head earlier this week when discussing KOC’s decision to reexamine and reframe the approach to McCarthy ahead of the Commanders game. This paragraph said it all:
What we saw on Sunday against the Commanders is what we should have been seeing all season long, and I don’t know why it took until Week 14 to make this shift. Let the young quarterback get the basics of an NFL offense down first, let him adjust to the speed of the game, and then add some of the more complex things in to it as the season progresses. Then, maybe, over the summer you can add a bigger project to work on so that when you get to Training Camp next year, you can start adding that to your repertoire
Maybe master the standard open chords like E minor, G, C, and D before tackling Eruption by Van Halen?
KOC’s reliance on “11” personnel (3 WR) more than 70 percent of the time has proven ineffective this season. In fact, they’ve been one of the worst offenses in the NFL. Against the Commanders, he switched to a variety of heavier packages (e.g., “22”, “21”, “12”, “13”) more than 50 percent of the time. And…voila!…the most complete offensive game of the year.
Now, that doesn’t mean we become the 1998 Vikings for the rest of the season. It’s on film now, and teams will expect it and adapt accordingly. Alec Lewis of The Athletic discussed some of the challenges this week. But it raises the question: why is all this happening now? If it had happened when McCarthy returned from the ankle injury, we might be having a very different discussion heading into the final stretch of a now disappointing 2025 season. Now, it’s all about 2026.
Or is it!!!???
So You’re Telling Me There’s a Chance
I didn’t hear no bell! The Vikings are still channeling Lloyd Christmas and are mathematically alive for a playoff spot. All they need to do is win out and have about 10 different games go their way between now and the end of the season. The chances of this happening are roughly 0.3-0.8 percent, it seems. Oddsmakers have it at +25000 odds. I’ll put some money on that, so if I win, I can make a 0.3-0.8 percent dent in my wife’s holiday spending.
This is actually the second most depressing Vikings-related news I heard this week. Did Fran Tarkenton really say that the Vikings didn’t even bother to practice ahead of their Super Bowl appearances?
Back in the land of reality, the Vikings will likely be eliminated before they even take the field for Sunday Night Football against the Dallas Cowboys. If they were playing any other team, they’d have been flexed out of this spot. So McCarthy has a chance to reintroduce himself to a nationwide, primetime audience after his poor Week 2 showing against the Atlanta Falcons.
And there should be plenty of opportunities to do so.
The Cowboys defense is probably worse than the Commanders’. They’re 29th in yards allowed per game (378.6), dead last in passing yards allowed (255.2), and 31st in points per game allowed (29.7). The Cowboys are better against the run (20th/123.5), but that likely reflects their inability to stop anything through the air. They’re also middle-of-the-road in sacks (29), but oddly first in pressure percentage per dropback (32.2%). This shows that they’ve been troubled by the same issue that’s hurt us this year: not getting home.
The Cowboys’ offense is extremely dangerous. They’re first in both total yards per game (394.9) and passing yards (275.5), while ranking 16th in rushing (119.5). It looks as though CeeDee Lamb could clear the concussion protocol for this game, so that’s huge. Either way, this unit is legit. Brian Flores will need to bring his A-game to Jerry World if we have a chance to slow them down.
Prediction
While still not great, I actually had one of my least atrocious takes back in May for this one:
Week 15: @Dallas Cowboys: People snickered when the Cowboys passed on sexier candidates to stay in-house with Brian Schottenheimer. People laughed when the Eagles hired Nick Sirianni, too. I expect a bounce-back season from Jerry’s bunch. I was hoping KOC would ditch Mike Zimmer’s tendency to come into 1 or 2 random games every season flat as a pancake and/or poised to play down to an opponent. Sadly, that hasn’t been the case (so far). Think the Cowboys and Colts games in ’22, the Jags, Titans games last year, etc. I can see that here. We get down early courtesy of some 3 and outs and a fluky turnover or 2 and go into catch-up mode. Sadly, we fall short. The good news? We get this type of game out of our system.
Dallas Cowboys: 24
Minnesota Vikings: 21
With their explosive offense lighting up defenses, you have to wonder how the Cowboys’ season might have turned out if they’d kept Micah Parsons. Maybe they would have won the Packers game or avoided that close loss to the Panthers. Oh well. They’re one of the last teams anyone should feel sorry for, so tough. Drew Pearson pushed off.
I’ll be rooting hard for McCarthy to keep improving each week and silence the doubters who wrote him off after six starts. We need to enter the offseason with great momentum and optimism for 2026. But right now, with no playoffs in sight, McCarthy playing well matters more than the Vikings winning. It’s about 2026. That’s what I’ll stand by. McCarthy looks good again, but Dallas pulls it out late because they have a kicker with a range somewhere between Galveston and Laredo.
Dallas Cowboys: 26
Minnesota Vikings: 24
Prove me wrong, Vikes…please.
