Good morning, Camden Chatters.
In the Orioles’ pursuit of a big-name starting pitcher, one major candidate just came off the board. Nippon Professional Baseball standout Tatsuya Imai reportedly will sign with the Houston Astros on a three-year, $54 million contract that includes opt-outs after every season.
It’s one of the most surprising free agent deals of the offseason, not only because it’s the Astros — a team that has little history in the Japanese market, with only one previous signing from the country
— but also because Imai ended up with a contract worth a fraction of what some analysts predicted. The Athletic projected that the right-hander would land an eight-year, $190 million deal, while MLB Trade Rumors pegged him for six years and $150 million. But the 27-year-old — whose posting period was set to expire today — apparently didn’t get the offers he’d hoped for. Now he’ll hope to prove himself in his debut season in the U.S. and perhaps opt out and cash in a bigger payday next winter.
My first thought is that the Orioles easily could have topped the Astros’ offer if they wanted to. But so could a lot of other teams. And the fact that nobody did so (as far as we know) indicates that MLB front offices just aren’t sold on Imai’s chances of transferring his NPB success to the majors. Imai can hit 99 mph on his fastball but has faced some concerns about his secondary pitches and his control, with some scouts seeing him as more of a back-end starter type rather than an ace.
The Athletic’s Keith Law is one of the low guys on the totem pole on Imai, ranking him only 31st on his top 50 free agent list, behind such starting pitchers as Zac Gallen, Justin Verlander, and Chris Bassitt — and Zach Eflin, whom the O’s have already re-signed. Law writes that Imai is “probably a mid-rotation starter” who has “the downside of a guy who’s going to allow too much hard contact on the heater to stay a starter.”
So, yes, there are some risks with Imai. But I would’ve been happy to overlook those risks if the Orioles had been the ones to sign him. It would’ve been the Birds’ boldest excursion into the Far East market yet, and certainly would’ve boosted the depth of the rotation, even if Imai isn’t a #1 or #2 type of starter. The O’s, though, seem to have decided that Imai wasn’t the right pitcher to target, or maybe he wasn’t interested in coming to Baltimore.
The Orioles will need to look elsewhere for a rotation upgrade. The Astros’ signing of Imai could close the book on their chances of re-signing their longtime ace Framber Valdez, and perhaps the O’s are an intriguing fit for him, especially considering Mike Elias’s previous ties to Valdez during his Houston tenure. Ranger Suárez remains on the market, as do some of the mid-tier guys like Gallen and Bassitt.
It just feels like the O’s are still one arm away from a complete offseason. And now we know that arm won’t be Imai’s.
Links
Orioles free agent targets: Comparing Framber Valdez vs. Ranger Suárez – The Baltimore Sun
Matt Weyrich gives the tale of tape between Valdez and Suárez. Ah, I can’t decide. Might as well just sign them both.
Should Orioles bring back Danny Coulombe? | MAILBAG – BaltimoreBaseball.com
The Orioles’ bizarre decision to decline Coulombe’s option was one of their many blunders last offseason. I’d be happy to bring him back, but the O’s seem to have decided they’re not interested for whatever reason.
Starting the New Year on an optimistic note – Steve Melewski
Melewski offers some reasons to be excited already about the 2026 Orioles. I’ll admit the team does look good on paper, but I’m still too scarred by 2025 to dare to be truly optimistic.
1 prediction for every club in ’26 – MLB.com
Orioles beat writer Jake Rill predicts the O’s will return to the postseason this year. It’s Optimism City in Birdland these days, apparently.
Orioles birthdays and history
Is today your birthday? Happy birthday! And happy 28th birthday to Kyle Stowers, whom the O’s dealt in the Trevor Rogers trade in 2024. In his first season with everyday playing time, Stowers broke out as an NL All-Star for the Marlins last year, hitting 25 homers and OPS’ing .912 in 117 games. Congrats to Kyle on his success, and considering the season that Rogers just had for the Orioles, I’d say that trade has worked out well for both sides.
Other ex-Orioles born on Jan. 2 include two right-handers named Garrett — Reed Garrett (33) and Maryland native Garrett Stephenson (54) — and outfielder Royle Stillman (75).
On this date in 2019, the Orioles hired Koby Perez as their senior director of international scouting, their first hire for that position under new general manager Mike Elias. Seven years later, Perez now has the title of vice president of international scouting and operations, and has helped the O’s set up an international talent pipeline that developed Samuel Basallo, among others.
