After two convincing wins in Toronto, the Red Sox enter play on Thursday with an 87-71 record and have a Magic Number of 1. While it may seem like we’re tempting fate to look ahead to potential playoff opponents next week, that’s what we’re going to do today.
The top seven teams in the American League are separated by a total of six games. There will not even be a 95-win team this year in the AL. The upside of having condensed standings on this side of the bracket is that truly any team has a shot
to make it to the World Series. The downside is that not a single team is even close to being locked into a specific seed, and guessing what the matchups will look like starting on Tuesday, September 30 is pointless. Which is, again, exactly what we’re going to do today.
For the sake of probabilities, which we learned this week are fake, let’s rule out a couple of things. The Red Sox probably aren’t going to win the division, needing to pass two teams that are three games ahead, in Toronto and the Yankees. That almost certainly rules out the Astros as an opponent in the Wild Card series. Let’s also rule out the Mariners falling out of a bye, as they also have a three-game cushion from doing so.
That would leave four opponents who are most likely to be the Red Sox opponents in the AL Wild Card series:
Toronto Blue Jays – 90-68
New York Yankees – 90-68
Cleveland Guardians – 86-72
Detroit Tigers – 85-73
If the Red Sox cannot catch either the Yankees or the Blue Jays in the final four days, then they will land on the five or the six seed, and all three games would take place away from Fenway, which, on the surface, is a disadvantage. However, in the three years that this format has been in use (2022-2024), the road team has gone 8-4 in the Wild Card series. Five-seeds have won four of the six series, and six-seeds have won four of the six series. So much for “winning your division is the most important thing”, which was stressed by Major League Baseball for the decade prior to 2022. The new mantra is, “winning your division means you’ll probably lose to a team that wasn’t allowed into the playoffs until 2021.”
A trend that is just as strange is that of those 12 series, only two went to a decisive third game – Padres-Mets in 2022 and Mets-Brewers in 2024. In 2023, all four series were two-game sweeps, leading to the most disappointing Thursday in the history of baseball.
If the Red Sox (87-71) land on the five-seed (their current spot), they would play the second-place team in the AL East, either the Blue Jays or the Yankees, who would end up with the four-seed.
If the Red Sox landed on the six-seed, they would play the AL Central division winner, either the Guardians or the Tigers.
So who do we want the Sox to play? Let’s dive in and rank them from “oh no not them” to “bring it on.”
4. Cleveland Guardians (Head-to-Head: BOS 4-2)
I wrote a piece last week titled “The Guardians want your playoff spot.” The word “your” was in reference to the Red Sox at the time, but over the past week, it has applied to everybody. They want the Astros’ spot, the Tigers’ spot, and possibly the World Series. Who in their right mind wants to play this team right now? On August 26, Cleveland was 64-66, 12.5 games behind the Tigers for first, and two games behind the Royals for second in the division. Cleveland is now 86-72 and a game up in the division, which has looked like this since 8/26:
This all came after two of their pitchers were allegedly betting on their own games, before the team sold at the trade deadline. They have a negative run differential on the season! I did my best to try to explain it, but I also want nothing to do with it next week.
3. New York Yankees (Head-to-Head: BOS 9-4)
The Yankees’ offense leads all of baseball in numerous categories, including runs scored (827), home runs (266), and OPS (.784). They have the co-favorite for MVP, in Aaron Judge, with 51 HR and a 1.136 OPS and an ace pitcher in Max Fried, who has been worth every dollar of the contract he signed in the offseason, winning his nineteenth game on Wednesday night with a sub-3 ERA. Jazz Chisholm has gone 30/30, Trent Grisham has 34 bombs out of the leadoff spot, and Cody Bellinger is approaching a 5-WAR season.
However, the bullpen that they loaded up on at the trade deadline has been a big disappointment. Devin Williams, for whom the Yankees gave up a lot in the offseason, was removed from the closer’s role around mid-season and has a 5.03 ERA in 64 appearances this year. Camilo Doval, traded from San Francisco, has a 5.09 ERA in 21 appearances with New York. David Bednar has stabilized things a bit as the new closer and now has a 2.49 ERA, but is 8-for-11 in save opportunities with New York and was so shaky earlier this season that he was demoted to Triple-A in April by the Pirates.
The fundamentals on defense and on the bases are not there on a nightly basis, which has been on display in most games against the Red Sox this season, who they have only won 4 out of 13 games against.
2. Detroit Tigers (Head-to-Head: DET 3-0 with 3 games remaining)
How do you look at the list of recent games and not put this team as the most desirable opponent in round one?
Because they have arguably the best pitcher on the planet on their team in a short series. Tarik Skubal is the reigning Cy Young Award winner and is considered a heavy favorite for this year as well. His 2.39 ERA since the start of 2023 is surpassed by his 2.37 ERA in the playoffs, which he compiled over three starts in 2024. Skubal has looked a bit more human of late, allowing three runs or more in seven starts over the second half of the season. There’s also a chance that he is needed in Game 162 just to get into the playoffs, but if they need the final game to grab the 6-seed then they would not be matched up against the Red Sox.
The rotation behind Skubal is subpar, with Jack Flaherty and Casey Mize sporting a 4.64 and 3.91 ERA, respectively. The bats have a .247 team average, sixteenth in MLB, and are led by Riley Greene and Spencer Torkelson, who have each surpassed 30 home runs on the season, and Gleyber Torres who has delivered with a 3-WAR performance in a one-year contract with Detroit.
1. Toronto Blue Jays (Head-to-Head: TOR 7-5 with 1 game remaining)
The Blue Jays just seem to be limping to the finish line. They’ve lost six of their last seven games at a time where they could be putting the finishing touches on the one-seed in the American League and taking a few days off to get healthy during the bye. The team hopes to have Bo Bichette and Chris Bassitt back for the playoffs, and have shifted Jose Berrios to a long relief role while calling up first-round 2024 draft pick Trey Yesavage.
Kevin Gausman and Shane Bieber are a formidable 1-2 punch, Vlad Guerrero Jr. will always pose a threat, and is still somehow just 26 years old. George Springer is having an incredible resurgence with a .304 batting average, 30 home runs, and 101 runs scored from the leadoff spot, and sporting a 4.8 fWAR that leads the team. If Bichette comes back from his sprained knee, the team could get the spark it needs, but right now, they seem like a team to target.
The last time that the Red Sox were in the playoffs they faced the Yankees in the one-game wild card format in 2021. Despite everything that I wrote above, I’ll take a Red Sox vs. Yankees series every single time because of the pure entertainment factor. But on enemy soil, it won’t be easy, and it’s probably not the preferred path. Enjoy the last few days of the regular season before the chaos arrives.
