Purdue was almost able to step back onto the top seed line last night even without playing a game. Michigan, who had spent the last several weeks pretty much crushing the skull of any and all opponents,
went to the Bryce Jordan Mausoleum and, as happens at least once a year, fell asleep. They escaped with a two point win to stay undefeated, and that is what has them on the top seed line ahead of Purdue at the moment. It also stings because an unexpected conference loss would have helped tremendously as the Boilermakers pursue a record 27th Big Ten title.
There is a lot of basketball to play though, and Purdue has more than a strong enough profile to get back on top. Since losing to Iowa State, Purdue has crushed some skulls of their own. They have won five in a row by an average of 24.5 points. The win over Minnesota, who suddenly can’t stop knocking off ranked teams in The Barn, is looking decent. A convincing win at Wisconsin has some value too.
Now that the non-conference schedule is complete it is not quite as strong as originally expected. Memphis and Marquette have been disappointing, but Akron is looking like a stronger win than originally thought. Purdue’s wins over Alabama and Texas Tech are excellent. The Auburn win is losing a bit of luster.
Overall, Big Ten play will take care of itself. Purdue’s profile is more than strong enough that a Big Ten championship almost certainly guarantees a No. 1 seed, especially as well as Michigan State, Michigan, Illinois, and Nebraska (!?!) have played.
Purdue Boilermakers Profile
Record: 13-1, 3-0 Big Ten
NET: 6
KenPom: 4
Bracket Matrix Consensus Seed: 2
Tier 1 Wins (KenPom) Home 1-30; Neutral 1-50; Away 1-75: 14 Alabama (Away), 19 Texas Tech (Neutral), 36 Auburn (Neutral), 42 Wisconsin (Away)
Tier 2 Wins (KenPom): Home 31-75 Neutral 51-100; Away 76-135: 62 Akron (Home), 80 Memphis (Neutral)
Tier 1 Wins (NET) Home 1-30; Neutral 1-50; Away 1-75: 13 Alabama (Away), 20 Texas Tech (Neutral), 37 Auburn (Neutral), 54 Wisconsin (Away)
Tier 2: Home 31-75 (NET) Neutral 51-100; Away 76-135: 56 Akron
Bad Losses (Sub-100 NET or KenPom): None
Evansville Purple Aces (4-12, 0-5 MVC) – NET 274, KenPom 283 – The Aces have lost seven straight and are 1-9 in their last 10. Since the last update they lost at Bradley (76-68), Illinois State (73-47), and Northern Iowa (62-48). They host a solid Murray State team tonight.
Oakland Golden Grizzlies (8-8, 4-1 Horizon) – NET 123, KenPom 130 – After an 88-73 loss at Wright State the Golden Grizzlies beat Youngstown State 85-83 and Robert Morris 96-73. They are currently tied with Wright State atop the Horizon League and have a rematch coming this Sunday.
Alabama Crimson Tide (11-3, 1-0 SEC) – NET 13, KenPom 14 – Alabama has won five in a row, including nice wins over Yale (102-78) and Kentucky (89-74). Tonight they have a huge SEC game at undefeated Vanderbilt. Since this is a true road victory for Purdue it would be fantastic if they won the SEC.
Akron Zips (11-4, 2-1 MAC) – NET 56, KenPom 62 – Akron dropped its first MAC game of the season at undefeated Miami (OH) 76-73 on Saturday, but bounced back to beat Central Michigan 82-69. The MAC is tougher than usual, as Miami, Akron, Kent State, and Buffalo all look solid, but they will probably cannibalize each other and stay as a one-bid league.
Memphis Tigers (7-7, 2-0 American) – NET 104, KenPom 80 – Memphis has started American play strong with wins over North Texas (57-48) and at Rice (76-70). They still have a lot of work to do, but if they can get into the top 100 of the NET that would be really nice for us.
Texas Tech Red Raiders (11-4, 1-1 Big 12) – NET 20, KenPom 19 – The Red Raiders opened Big 12 play with a very nice 102-80 win over Oklahoma State, but couldn’t close the deal last night in a 69-65 loss at Houston. This is still a very solid neutral court win, especially when you consider the margin. Tech’s other three losses have come by a combined 15 points, while Purdue them by 30.
Eastern Illinois Panthers (4-10, 1-3 Ohio Valley) – NET 310, KenPom 316 – This win carries pretty much no value. The Panthers dropped road games at Southeast Missouri State (68-59) and Tennessee-Martin (65-61). The OVC is a league that projects as a 15 or 16 seed anyway.
Iowa State Cyclones (14-0, 1-0 Big 12) – NET 3, KenPom 3 – The lone blemish on Purdue’s record is far from a bad one. In fact, the margin and location are the only real downsides to it. The Cyclones are one of four remaining undefeated teams in the country and they go to Baylor tonight after beating West Virginia 80-59 to start Big 12 play.
Marquette Golden Eagles (5-10, 0-4 Big East) – NET 168, KenPom 118 – What on earth has happened to Marquette? After going to four straight NCAA Tournaments, two of them as a two seed, they have come crashing down with six straight losses. That includes 79-73 to Seton Hall and 73-57 at Connecticut. Tonight they host Xavier hoping to get back on track, but it has been a dismal season so far.
Auburn Tigers (9-6, 0-2 SEC) – NET 37, KenPom 36 – Auburn has had a rough start in the SEC with a pair of narrow losses. They lost at Georgia 104-100 in overtime over the weekend and dropped a heartbreaker at home last night to Texas A&M 90-88. They could really use a win over Arkansas this weekend.
Kent State Golden Flashes (12-3, 3-0 MAC) – NET 154, KenPom 140 – Since losing to Purdue the Golden Flashes have picked up a pair of conference wins over Northern Illinois (77-73) and Bowling Green (96-93. After going to Central Michigan Saturday they have a big league game at Buffalo next week.
Likely NCAA Teams: Alabama, Texas Tech, Iowa State, Auburn
Possible NCAA teams (Could win Autobids): Akron, Kent State, Oakland
Could play to the Bubble: Akron
