Multiple sources this morning are reporting that the Diamondbacks have re-signed starting pitcher Merrill Kelly to a two-year deal. The cost is apparently $40 million, which is both higher than expected,
and also seems more than the D-backs were generally expected to be spending. It’s a return to Arizona for Kelly, of course. He came to the D-backs in 2019 after a spell in Korea, and spent the best part of seven years here, before being dealt to the Rangers at the deadline this year. We’d like to thank Texas for those prospects.
The deal, following on the heels of the signing of Michael Soroka earlier in the week, appears to have settled the Opening Day rotation for next year:
- Merrill Kelly
- Eduardo Rodriguez
- Ryne Nelson
- Brandon Pfaadt
- Michael Soroka
The team does expect to get Corbin Burnes back at some point in the upcoming season. Presumably, if everyone is healthy (and that is always a big if), Soroka would move to long relief. Speaking of which, the signing means attention will now move to the bullpen. GM Mike Hazen has made it clear he intends to improve that. However, the question is, how he will work on it. We’re still awaiting the precise contract details, but if Kelly’s $40 million is evenly split, that and the Soroka contract have added about $27.5 million to payroll. This may be close to the maximum amount of cash available for Hazen to spend.
If so, then it would suggest trades would be the way forward elsewhere. With the rotation now set, perhaps this reduces the odds of Ketel Marte being dealt. We may instead see smaller pieces being moved instead, like Jake McCarthy or Alek Thomas, for a bullpen arm. I also note that the Kelly contract is more expensive than projected: MLB Trade Rumors had Merrill at $36 million for two years. There had also been a belief that size of deal “likely will price him out of Arizona”. Certainly didn’t seem to be much of a “hometown discount” for Kelly this time. Though considering how undervalued he had been, it’s hard to complain.
Over the seven seasons, Kelly has been worth 15.9 bWAR, while getting paid a total of $38.5 million. The new contract should redress the balance a bit. With the current price for a win considered as being about $11 million [I learned this from Jack on the podcast yesterday!], if Kelly can post four wins in 2026 and 2027, it’ll be good value. The current projection from Fangraphs.com has him at 2.5 wins for next year, which would be a good start towards achieving the target. The bigger question may be whether there is a season at all on 2027…
