Let’s look at the season this way for a moment.
If, on Opening Day, I had told you the Cubs would be 44-37 after 81 games, you’d have probably been a bit disappointed. That’s an 88-win pace, which is good, but fewer wins than last year and probably not enough to win the NL Central.
The thing is, I think a lot of Cubs fans are hugely disappointed in the team right now. They’ve generated enough offense, I’d think, to win more games than that. They currently rank sixth in MLB in runs with 399 (though
they’re only 10 runs behind the third-ranked Pirates). That’s just less than five runs per game. Generally, if you can score around 800 runs in a season, you’re going to win 90+ games.
Except if the pitching staff isn’t doing its job, you’re not. And this pitching staff has been riddled with injuries. I don’t need to recount all of those to you, you are quite familiar with them. And right now, the team has allowed 362 runs, which ranks 16th, exactly league average. What’s worse, though, is that they have served up 123 home runs, most in MLB. The A’s are second at 120, and as you know, they play in a minor-league park that’s known for long balls.
The weirdest part about this very odd Cubs season is how they got to 44-37.
First 16 games: 7-9, 73 runs scored, 69 allowed
Next 23 games: 20-3, 142 runs scored, 90 allowed
Next 29 games: 7-22, 93 runs scored, 151 allowed
Next 13 games: 10-3, 91 runs scored, 52 allowed
That is…
I mean, what team does that in half of a single season? That’s a .500 club for a couple of weeks, the best team in baseball for three weeks, the worst team in baseball for four weeks, and the best team again for two weeks.
Hitting? Pitching? As you can see, it’s both. During the 20-3 streak, the team averaged more than six runs a game and allowed fewer than four. Then they spent nearly a month scoring only a bit more than three per game (and scored 1 run or fewer nine times), but also allowed 5.2 per game.
In the current 13-game stretch, they’re back to pounding the ball — seven runs scored per game — and also have had solid pitching, allowing four per game.
Where does this team go from here?
Acquiring David Peterson will help. As has been written elsewhere, he’s an extreme ground ball pitcher who will be helped by the Cubs’ elite infield defense. We just spent four days watching how bad the Mets infield defense is (and that’s not a one-year problem, either).
But clearly, the team needs another starting pitcher, too. Today we stand 38 days from the trade deadline. The Mets, incidentally, should be one of the teams selling, and Freddy Peralta pitched well enough Thursday (and for most of the season) that he should be a Cubs trade target. Peralta, too, would be helped by the Cubs defense. There are other pitchers out there that I’m sure Jed Hoyer & Co. are targeting.
They could use some relief help, too. If I’m Hoyer I’m on the phone with my old buddy Craig Breslow in Boston, seeing what it would take to get Aroldis Chapman. Hey, it worked 10 years ago. Chapman isn’t the pitcher he was in 2016, but he is still an effective MLB reliever and he could close games in Daniel Palencia’s absence.
Other than that, the offense has begun to click again. If the team can get Alex Bregman, Seiya Suzuki and Michael Busch going, it could be a real juggernaut in the season’s second half.
That second 81-game stretch begins tonight in Milwaukee. Hopefully this Cubs team can play better against the Brewers than they did last month in Chicago.
As always, we await developments. Go Cubs.
