Graphic readability notes:
- Team logos are scaled using the number of attempted 4th-down conversions for all scatterplots included in this article. The bigger the logo, the more 4th-down conversions that the team attempted.
- Ranked teams as of Week 14, according to the Coaches Poll in the corresponding season, are displayed more prominently.
Offense:
Oregon enters the playoffs as one of the better offenses in terms of 4th-down conversion rate. Under Dan Lanning’s tenure as Head Coach, Oregon has become less, and, less aggressive on 4th downs. I was surprised to see this, given the fact that Oregon attempted seven fourth-down conversions against Penn State alone.
In Lanning’s first year, Oregon attempted 4th-down conversions over 40% of the time, a top-5 rate nationally. That dropped to roughly 25% last year before
climbing back above 30% so far this year. I expect the change is partly attributed to situational football, along with Lanning having more trust in his specialists and defense.
Sappington cemented his Oregon legacy by hitting his last seven field goal attempts, including four from 40+ yards, a game-winner versus Iowa, and a career-long of 51 against Washington. Not to be forgotten, James Ferguson-Reynolds should’ve been a Ray Guy Finalist, ranking among the nation’s best in punt efficiency.
Oregon rarely turns down a chance to convert on 4th and 1. The Ducks sent the offense out for all twelve opportunities this season and have converted 66.66% of the time. I can’t help but notice what it looks like for a team with offensive line struggles like LSU. Though they converted, the Tigers sent their offense out on one of four 4th and 1 opportunities while adding three false starts on unplayed 4th and 1 downs.
Oregon is much more judicious about attempting 4th and short situations (2-3 yards) despite an insignificant drop-off in conversion rate. Anything beyond 3 yards is nearly a foregone conclusion that Dan will opt for a field goal or punt. At just over 10% of situations, Oregon ranks toward the bottom in attempt rate when facing 4th and medium (4-6 yards). With the exception of last year’s Indiana squad, no playoff team attempts 4th and medium situations more than 30% of the time.
Oregon significantly reduced how often they attempted 4th down conversions when in opponent territory outside the 30-yard line in each of the past two seasons compared to 2022 and 2023. This is perhaps the biggest indicator of increased trust in Oregon’s special teams ability. I’m referring to this part of the field as Non-Deterministic Field Position (NDFP for short).
This is the part of the field where teams are more likely to attempt 4th-down conversions due to being outside of their kicker’s comfortable range. The number of situations in which analytics suggest going for it expands as well. This is due to increased likelihood for a conversion to payoff with a touchdown, along with mitigated field position yielded compared to a touchback when failing to convert.
Defense:
Surprisingly, Oregon has never had a highly or even well-ranked defense in terms of 4th-down success rate under Dan Lanning. Oregon’s 2022-2024 teams had above-average stop rates on 4th down. This year, despite having what is pretty clearly Oregon’s best defense yet under Lanning, Oregon enters the playoffs, last in defensive 4th-down success rate among the twelve qualifying teams.
4th and short situations tell the same story for the Ducks’ defense. Oregon opponents have opted to attempt every 4th and 1 along with nearly 80% of 4th and 2 or 3-yard situations this season. Oregon’s defense falls below the national median in stop rate when opponents attempt 4th and short.
I’ve attached charts for 4th and medium, long, and very long situations. Most teams avoid attempting conversions in these situations and rarely find success when they decide to go for it.
