Kentucky Basketball ended a three-game slide with a massive revenge win over South Carolina on Tuesday, then followed it up with a revenge beatdown of Vanderbilt on Saturday. It was maybe the most complete 40-minute game we have seen from the Cats all season against a Power Five team. Behind a career night from Collin Chandler and a dominant first half, the Wildcats proved they can punch back when their backs are against the wall.
Now, it’s time to build some real momentum heading into March.
Next
up are the Texas A&M Aggies, a team that is fighting for its life on the NCAA Tournament bubble. While Kentucky has likely secured its spot in the Big Dance, this road trip to College Station carries significant weight for SEC Tournament seeding and maintaining that “top-tier” trajectory.
Let’s take a look at the matchup.
The emotional hangover
Saturday at Rupp Arena was an emotional peak. Between the 25-point revenge narrative and the Collin Chandler eruption, the energy was at an all-time high. The biggest challenge for Mark Pope’s squad on Tuesday will be avoiding the dreaded emotional hangover.
Texas A&M is 13-4 at home this season, and they play a brand of basketball that requires 40 minutes of focus. They will punish you for moments of distraction. If Kentucky walks into Reed Arena feeling too good about the Vandy win, the Aggies have the offensive firepower to make them pay early.
Assists and ball movement
Texas A&M ranks #4 in the country in assists per game (19.0). They aren’t a team that relies on isolation; they move the ball and find the open man. For Kentucky, the defensive rotations that looked so crisp against Vanderbilt will be put to the ultimate test.
The Aggies’ ability to facilitate, evidenced by their 0.633 Assist/FGM ratio, means Kentucky cannot afford to fall asleep on the perimeter. Denzel Aberdeen and Otega Oweh will need to be elite at the point of attack to disrupt the Aggies’ rhythm.
The turnover marker
As anyone in BBN can point out to you, turnovers matter. When Kentucky hangs on to the ball, they are tough to beat. When they have careless turnovers, they can get into trouble pretty quickly.
Texas A&M’s defense forces 13.6 turnovers per game. For Kentucky to win on the road, they must stay under that magic number of 11. If they protect the rock, they give their high-octane offense enough possessions to outpace an Aggie defense that allows 79 points per game.
Players to watch using SEC stats only
G Rylan Griffen 6-6, 190 lbs
- 11.1 PPG
- 3.2 RPG
- 2.2 APG
- SEC veteran presence on the wing.
G Marcus Hill 6-4, 185 lbs
- 10.0 PPG
- 3.2 RPG
- High-level secondary creator.
G Pop Isaacs 6-2, 170 lbs
- 9.8 PPG
- 2.7 RPG
- 2.3 APG
- A dangerous shooter who can get hot in a hurry.
Kentucky Basketball vs. Texas A&M Aggies
- Time: 7:00 PM ET on March 3
- Location: Reed Arena in Bryan-College Station, TX
- TV Channel: ESPN2
- Online Stream: WatchESPN and the ESPN app.
- Radio: Tom Leach and Jack Givens have the call on the UK Sports Radio Network.
- Replay: WatchESPN and the ESPN network (check local listings)
- Rosters: Kentucky| Texas A&M
- Stats to Know: Kentucky| Texas A&M
- KenPom: Kentucky| Texas A&M
- Team Sheet: UK | Texas A&M
- Odds: FanDuel Sportsbook has the Aggies favored by 1.5 points with an over/under of 158.5. The analytics also suggest a razor-thin margin. ESPN gives Texas A&M a 55.5% chance to win at home, while KenPom gives the Wildcats just a 46% chance of winning. BartTorvik gives Kentucky only a 37% chance of winning. EvanMiya gives them a 45.5% chance of winning, while DRatings is slightly higher at 48.6%.
- Predictions: Haslametrics leans toward the home team, 78-76. DRatings (85-84), BartTorvik (82-78), EvanMiya (81-80), and KenPom (79-78) also have the Aggies winning.
This has all the makings of a classic SEC “trap” game. I expect Kentucky to start a bit slow as they adjust to the hostile environment at Reed Arena, and Texas A&M will likely open up an early lead behind a desperate home crowd.
However, this Kentucky team has shown a resilience that was missing earlier in the season. I expect the Cats to weather the initial storm, tighten up the perimeter defense in the second half, and use their superior depth to pull away late. Texas A&M is tough at home, but Kentucky is currently playing with a level of confidence that is hard to bet against. I’m going with an 81-74 victory, Kentucky!
Let us know in the comments how you think this matchup will go!
C-A-T-S Cats, Cats, Cats!
