After dropping the series to the Baltimore Orioles at home over the weekend, the last place Cincinnati Reds fell to just 41-48 on the season. To wrap the first half of their schedule prior to the All Star break, all they get to do is host the red hot Philadelphia Phillies (who are 20 games over .500 since their dismal 8-18 start) and the mighty Chicago Cubs who, like the Phils, are 10 games over .500 on the season.
It’s looking obvious that the Reds should be sellers ahead on the August 3rd trade
deadline even if they haven’t figured that out themselves.
As we opined over a month ago (when the Reds were in last place and looked like sellers), selling wasn’t even going to be easy for them this year. The short term pieces they brought in had underperformed or were already not valued, and longer-term pieces simply had been too hurt or playing poorly to be doing anything other than selling low on.
Has any of that really changed? Let’s take a look at who might be Cincinnati’s biggest, best trade chip for this particular trade deadline.
Off-limits
RHP Chase Burns, IF Sal Stewart
Unless the Castellinis and their consortium are literally selling everything – every player, the entire franchise, all of it – you don’t even listen if someone calls about these two young All Stars. They are the new cornerstones around whom you build.
Only if you are bowled completely over
SS Elly De La Cruz, LHP Andrew Abbott
Notice how I didn’t include Elly above?
You certainly don’t shop him, as news of that would leak and there’d be an insant maelstrom out of which you would not emerge. But if someone comes in with the Bartolo Colon offer, or the Juan Soto Washington Edition offer, or the Mark Teixeira deal on Atlanta’s end, maybe it’s time to consider it.
The insane talent is still obviously there, yes, but you can make a pretty decent argument that he has plateaud just slightly below superstar status. The ability to run has also been taken away from him, either by caution due to the quad and hamstring injuries or by design from the Reds powers that be. He’ll be arbitration-eligible for 2027 and no longer cheap, but just about every team out there probably already has a ‘what would it take to get Elly from the Reds’ in their trade deadline playbook.
Also, do you really think the Reds will be good between now and when Elly walks in 3.5 years? Or, rather, between now and when they’re forced to sell him before he walks?
It’s a somewhat similar story to former All Star Andrew Abbott, who shrugged off a bad April to look exactly like the All Star he was last year again. He’s got 3.5 years of team control, too, and is the classic case of ‘Baseball Refernce bWAR loves him, and FanGraphs fWAR thinks he’s pedestrian.‘
If there’s a BBRef-worshipping franchise out there who comes calling for a starting pitcher, maybe it’s not a bad time to consider cashing in on Abbott for the same reasons.
It’s not the right time
RHP Hunter Greene, IF/OF Matt McLain, OF Noelvi Marte, RHP Rhett Lowder
Greene is precisely the kind of pitcher the Reds should want to be pitching for them the rest of the year. He just missed half a season due to surgery on a right elbow that already had Tommy John under their watch, and he’s controlled long-term. Moving him now would be selling incredibly low, and on top of that he needs to build up innings over the last half of 2026 to be fully ready to return to form in 2027.
Once he does that, then you maybe consider moving him as a cornerstone type arm, not as a dice-roll after surgery that nobody will overpay to acquire.
McLain likely has minimal, if any value right now since he’s been bad or hurt since midway through 2023. Still, he’s a former 1st round pick of two different franchises whose managers have constantly adored him, so someone would probably take a flier on him with multiple years of team control still remaining. However, I think his defense and versatility mean you hold on and give him him another shot in 2027 – ideally under the tutelage of a whole different hitting coach all winter long.
In Noelvi Marte, you still have something of a wild card. Injuries, suspensions, massive positional moves, and he’s still just 24 and oozing talent. You continue to roll the dice on him (especially if you begin a rebuild that doesn’t immediately prioritize winning) and hope he figures it out.
Lowder is something of the Marte version of the pitching staff. You simply wait to see more with him, as there were legitimate reasons (and still are) why he was valued so highly by so many so recently.
Can you even give them away?
IF Eugenio Suarez, RHP Emilio Pagan, OF TJ Friedl, C Jose Trevino
There is a lot (by Reds standards) of money tied to these four this year. Almost $35 million, in fact, and that’s given the Reds a combined -1.5 bWAR. Injuries certainly haven’t helped, but this foursome has been an epic failure so far in 2026.
Someone would probably take Suarez off the Reds hands on a bet he does have a hot streak in him somewhere, but they certainly wouldn’t a) give up anything of value to do that or b) do so without the Reds eating money. TJ Friedl might have a taker somewhere who thinks they can fix him – he does have an option left and has team control for two years – but it’d be such a sell-low that the return would be near nil.
The other two? Well, Pagan’s contract literally has a kicker that pays him more if he’s traded, and Trevino’s got almost zero trade value with that money tied to him despite being a pretty OK backup catcher (when not hurt all the time).
You can’t even give him away
3B Ke’Bryan Hayes
Hayes, whose back was a problem when the Reds acquired him from Pittsburgh last year and has been partially behind him being the worst hitter on the planet in 2026, has no trade value. Not with more than $30 million guaranteed to him going forward.
The Reds are stuck with him until they release him.
Do you actually want to give him away?
RHP Brady Singer
Singer has been better lately than he was during a brutal two-month start to the year, but he’s still not been great. What he has been, though, is perpetually reliable, and that’s something the Reds might actually need for the last half of the year.
If they dealt Abbott, or Nick Lodolo, who actually soaks up innings on this roster? Is it worth keeping Singer around at the prorated portion of his salary so that someone can actually go 5 IP every fifth day, especially once Chase Burns gets inevitably shut down?
Do you really trust Chase Petty, or Julian Aguiar to step right in and get through 6 IP every week?
You can make the case that Singer will have a small market, and that’s probably true. What I’m saying here, though, is that if the Reds move him and make a larger move to deal another established starter, Nick Krall is going to need a Zack Littell-esque move to literally have a body out there who can get enough outs to get through the end of the year. It’ll be hard to find one more apt at that for cheaper than what they’ve already got in Singer.
The bullpen
There are some pieces here that good teams will want. Good teams needing only fringe additions in the middle of their bullpen won’t be sending over future superstar talent to acquire them, but they’ll send enough to make the moves.
This is the Brock Burke, Caleb Ferguson, Pierce Johnson category. If the Reds eat a million here or there with this trio, they’ll be able to get legitimate wild card pieces who are years away. You do this as soon as you can if you are Krall, and you look immediately at where the current Reds bullpen ranks and realize it won’t fall any further down the rankings if you just bring back Connor Phillips, Zach Maxwell, Luis Mey, etc.
(That’s a long-term problem to fix. Get what you can from what few pillars there are there right now.)
Sam Moll is controllable again in 2027, so perhaps you keep him around. Someone will need to be a reliever on the Reds in 2027. Still, if someone comes calling for him, might as well move him, too.
The obvious movers
1B Nathaniel Lowe, C Tyler Stephenson
Lowe was released by the Washington Nationals mid-August last year and Boston brought him in for a successful month and a half that mimicked his work for years in Texas. Still, nobody wanted Lowe this offseason and he came to the Reds on a minor league deal and has, ever since, looked more or less like the typical Lowe. There’s just a very light market for that right now, though someone will likely send at least some cash to move him on.
Stephenson might have suitors, especially if any of the typical catching injuries pop up to a key player at an opportune time. He’s a free agent at season’s end, so the Reds may as well move him for what they can. If they want him back on a 1-year deal this winter, he’ll be a free agent and they’ve got his phone number after 11 years in the organization, after all.
The legitimately OK pieces
OF JJ Bleday, IF/OF Spencer Steer, LHP Nick Lodolo
Here’s why we wrote the article. It took us over 1600 words to talk about how little the Reds should legitimately shop this trade deadline, but we made it to this trio – JJ Bleday, Spencer Steer, and Nick Lodolo.
They’re a trio that each come with team control beyond 2026 – 2027 for Lodolo, 2027 and 2028 for Bleday and Steer. Each has their own solid pedigree, too.
- Lodolo was twice drafted in the 1st round and was a consensus Top 100 prospect, and his 2025 season established an ability to be a front-line starter.
- Bleday was a Top 5 pick, posted a 20 homer season back with the A’s, and was the NL Player of the Month in May when he was the best hitter on the planet.
- Steer finished 6th in Rookie of the Year voting, played in the Futures Game the year before, and has a streak of 20+ homer seasons sitting at three right now with 14 already this year, has a 20/25 season under his belt, and he plays all over defensively (even if it’s mediocre)
Nobody is trading for Bleday or Steer to come in and be the best position player on their team, but each would likely be given a significant complementary role for just about any team (especially with Steer’s defense and Bleday’s bat vs RHP). That paired with team control has a good bit of value, even if Bleday’s is dented by his uncermonious exit from the A’s organization.
It’s Lodolo, though, who has the chance to be the buy-low steal of this trade deadline, and that’s my pick for the most apt combination of biggest and best trade chip right now. He just poured in his best start of the year over the weekend, and the blister issues that dogged him early finally look like they’re in the past. He also has a reptuation as being ‘injury prone’ because yes, he has missed a lot of time over the years, but none of those has been a structural injury to a key part of his prized left arm.
There are a lot of miles left on Nick Lodolo, and while he might not get a fraction of the haul that Tarik Skubal will net the Tigers this deadline, you can make the claim (especially while pointing at 2025) that he’s got every bit the next-best upside of any arm on the block. So, there could be some decent bidding on him despite the totality of his 2026 stats looking pedestrian by his standards.
The Reds could certainly wait on him, hope he pitches like we know he can during the season’s second half, and shop him this winter. But that wouldn’t be during a playoff chase for teams, and demand – while broader – might not be as intensely focused.
If Lodolo continues to round back into form over the next four weeks, he’s the single best chip the Reds should move as sellers this trade deadline.
