The SMU Mustangs joined the ACC in 2024 as the conference’s ultimate underdog, foregoing nearly a decade of media revenue just for a shot to compete in the league. Yet, they’ve served as the conference’s most consistent winner since.
In year one, SMU posted the only spotless 8-0 regular season ACC record, qualifying for the ACC Championship Game. Despite losing on a last-second 56-yard field goal to Clemson, SMU still qualified for the College Football Playoff due to a stellar regular season résumé.
In year two, SMU is sustaining its success, equipped with a 5-1 ACC record heading into the final two weeks. The Mustangs notably knocked off Miami (FL) for their first AP Top 10 win since the 1982 season, but they also suffered their first-ever regular season ACC loss — falling 13-12 in a heartbreaker at Wake Forest on a 50-yard field goal at the buzzer.
SMU is 13-1 in conference games since joining the ACC, and its lone defeat was by one point. But the Mustangs don’t even control their own destiny for a second-straight title game appearance. So how does SMU qualify?
Currently, the six teams still alive in the 17-team ACC are as follows (and yes, 5-5 Duke is still technically in the running):
- Georgia Tech controls its own destiny. If the Yellow Jackets defeat Pitt in Atlanta this Saturday night, they qualify for their ACC Championship Game since 2014.
- Virginia likely controls its own destiny, but there are several bizarre tiebreakers scenarios where the Cavaliers miss out despite a 7-1 record. They receive a bye this upcoming week, and their only remaining regular season matchup is a home rivalry game vs. Virginia Tech on Nov. 29. There is a very, very high probability they are win-and-in with the Commonwealth Cup.
- Pitt is fully eliminated with a loss to Georgia Tech on Nov. 22.
Thus, SMU’s optimal path to clinching a spot in Charlotte involves three steps:
- SMU defeats Louisville at home on Nov. 22
- SMU defeats California on the road on Nov. 29
- Georgia Tech loses to Pitt at home on Nov. 22 -OR- Virginia loses to Virginia Tech at home on Nov. 29
Does SMU win a tiebreaker with 7-1 Pitt?
Yes, if SMU is 7-1 and Pitt is 7-1, the tiebreaker edge belongs to the Mustangs. This one is quite simple, as SMU faces Louisville this weekend. With a win in Dallas, SMU picks up a key common opponent victory that the Panthers don’t have, considering Louisville defeated Pitt 34-27 on Sept. 27. Thus, the Mustangs can fully support their Steel City brethren this Saturday against Georgia Tech.
A Pitt win would allow SMU to control its own destiny. A Pitt loss would force the Mustangs to become the biggest Virginia Tech fans in Week 14.
Can SMU win a tiebreaker with 7-1 Georgia Tech or 7-1 Virginia?
The answer is technically yes, and only over Virginia, but it’s highly unlikely. Since SMU, Georgia Tech, and Virginia all wound up avoiding each other on the schedule, we jump to the 3-way tiebreaker of win percentage against all common opponents. Georgia Tech wins this tiebreaker because it defeated Wake Forest in overtime on Sept. 27, while SMU and Virginia both lost to the Demon Deacons as their lone ACC defeat.
With no more common opponents between SMU and Virginia, we move to the next tiebreaker scenario, and that’s win percentage against common opponents based on order of finish. However, the only ACC loss for both SMU and Virginia is Wake Forest, meaning they lost to the same common opponent and defeated the same common opponents (Stanford, Louisville if SMU beats them this Saturday, and California if SMU beats them in Week 14). Thus, we move to the next tiebreaker which is combined win percentage of conference opponents.
That’s where Virginia currently edges SMU. The Cavaliers’ conference opponents — including future opponent Virginia Tech — have a combined conference record of 23-29. The Mustangs’ conference opponents — including future opponents Louisville and Cal — have a combined conference record of 22-33. In most scenarios, Virginia will finish ranked higher in the category, so SMU must pull for its unique conference opponent — Miami (FL) — while rooting against Virginia’s unique opponents — Florida State, North Carolina, Duke, and Virginia Tech. Note that SMU’s other unique conference opponents are Clemson, which is done with its ACC slate, and Boston College and Syracuse, which play each other Week 14.
If SMU and Virginia end up tied in that category, the ACC calls for a comparison in the Team Rating Score metric provided by SportSource Analytics following the conclusion of regular season games. And if there is somehow still a tie after that, it comes down to the commissioner or commissioner’s designee choosing an ACC title game opponent via a drawing.
Can SMU make the CFP again?
Yes, since the Mustangs are still alive for the conference championship, they can feasibly finish as one of the five highest-ranked conference champions, per the committee’s top 25. SMU needs to win out against Cal and Louisville, rely on help to make it to Charlotte for the ACC Championship, and win in Charlotte for this scenario to materialize.
The Big Ten, SEC, and Big 12 will almost certainly feature the three highest-ranked conference champions, so SMU just needs to finish above either the American Conference champion or a Sun Belt champion James Madison — as the Mountain West, MAC, and Conference USA likely cannot produce a higher-ranked champion than 10-3 SMU with wins over Miami (FL), Clemson, Louisville, and the ACC runner-up.
In conclusion, welcome to the era of divisionless 17-team super-conferences. Perhaps the scenarios become slightly less chaotic when the ACC adds a ninth conference game in 2026.
