The Thunder swept their way to the Conference Finals. The Spurs were dominant but had to fight harder to get there. Who comes into the matchup in better shape?
Marilyn Dubinski: I think both teams have their advantages and disadvantages. There is no doubt that the Spurs are the more battle-tested team, while the Thunder had about the easiest path to the WCF imaginable, but they are the defending champions. They know what it takes to win it all, so does that actually matter? There’s also the matter of rest vs. rhythm: the Thunder are certainly more rested and fresh, but will that translate to rust? It did for the Spurs between the first and second round,
but the Thunder still won their game 1 against the Lakers comfortably. I think both teams will be so hyped for this match-up that it doesn’t matter.
Mark Barrington: It’s hard to say, but the Spurs definitely needed to be challenged to be playoff-ready, and the rugged nature of the first two rounds was good preparation for the conference finals. The players on the Thunder already have plenty of playoff experience, so the fact that they had an easy time with their first two rounds shouldn’t be a problem for them. I think the best news for the Spurs is that the only player who is nicked up going into OKC is De’Aaron Fox with a sore ankle, and he seemed well enough to score at will against the Timberwolves in Game 6 of the conference semifinals. Jalen Williams has missed a lot of time for the Thunder, and even though he’s expected to be back for the series against the Spurs, he may be a little rusty.
Bill Huan: I don’t think either team has a “readiness” advantage over the other. They’re both firing on all cylinders and have undoubtedly been the two best teams in the league since the All-Star break. With that said, the type of confidence they exude is entirely different. The Thunder are quiet and laid back: they know exactly what they are and have been here before. On the other hand, the Spurs are the new, raucous kids whose belief that they can win it all borders on arrogance, even when they don’t know what to expect on the journey to the promised land. San Antonio’s inexperience and fearlessness are both a blessing and a curse, and only time will tell which side of the coin they’ll fall on.
Jeje Gomez: I would have said the Spurs were in a better spot because they have overcome adversity and are in rhythm, but the injury report from the last Timberwolves game changed my outlook. Having both De’Aaron Fox and Dylan Harper listed as questionable, seeing Fox potentially reaggravating his ankle issue, and hearing Mitch Johnson saying he wasn’t sure if they were going to suit up was a little scary. Maybe the Spurs were being overly cautious with them. Maybe Fox just needed to get his ankle retaped — he returned to action after going to the locker room after all. They both looked good out there. But heading into what will be a physical battle against a hyper-aggressive perimeter defense, I would have taken health over lack of rust.
The Spurs clearly don’t like the Thunder and dominated the season series. Will their previous success against OKC give San Antonio a valuable confidence boost, or are the playoffs just a different animal?
Dubinski: While the regular season matchups will certainly give them a confidence boost in the sense that they know what it takes to beat this team and there’s no reason to think it ends here (I remember that feeling from 2018 against the Warriors), I think they and everyone else know the playoffs are a different animal, especially without homecourt advantage. Look no further than the second round: the regular season and recent history in Minnesota suggested the Timberwolves had the Spurs’ number, but that ended up not being the case. The Thunder will be highly motivated after having to listen to the narrative that the Spurs were better since December, so put the regular season in the past and expect a dog fight.
Barrington: The Spurs last played the Thunder on February 4, which is … about 3 and a half months ago. The Spurs have definitely improved since then, but Mark Daigneault has had plenty of time to dissect the tape and come up with strategies to handle a seven-and-a-half-foot alien on the court disrupting their offensive game. The Spurs game is based on speed and passing, and the Thunder’s defense will employ a Timberwolves-style defense based on physicality and taking away passing lanes. OKC has a more talented roster, so the Spurs won’t be able to pick on the weakest link as much as they were able to in the semis.
While the Spurs having a 4-1 advantage over the Thunder in the regular season is an encouraging sign, it’s not going to be good enough for the Spurs to play as well as they did in the regular season to win this series. They are going to have to play with a lot of crispness and also with a lot of energy. The Spurs are better than they were when they beat the Thunder 4 out of 5 games in the middle of the season, but so are the Thunder. It’s going to be a tough series, and I expect it to be close throughout.
Huan: If there’s one thing that could make this boisterous Spurs team even more confident, it would be their 4-1 regular-season record against the Thunder. On the flip side, I think that OKC will be more motivated to beat a team many have proclaimed to be their kryptonite, too. While there are key matchup advantages that the Spurs can take away from those regular-season games, Mark also makes a good point in that the Thunder has had time to game-plan against the walking mismatch that is Wemby. Ultimately, both teams should feel good about their chances going into this series.
Gomez: This Spurs team is fearless, so they would have thought they had a chance even if they had lost the season series, but those four wins probably make them feel even more confident, which could be big if they face some struggles early. It’s possible the Thunder take the first couple of games at home or completely dominate on their way to a blowout win on Game 1, because they are that good. If that were to happen to a team that has traditionally struggled against them, it could have been tough to recover mentally. But the Spurs know those guys are human and beatable, which should help them bounce back if something goes wrong.
Prediction time: how do you think the series will play out, and who do you think will reach the Finals?
Dubinski: I hate predictions, but my gut instinct is saying Spurs in six. Maybe it’s just wishful thinking, but I see the Spurs taking 1 of 2 in OKC, either sweeping Games 3 and 4 in San Antonio or getting one of two but stealing Game 5, and then returning to SA to close out the series in Game 6. A lot of this will depend on Victor Wembanyama staying under control and the guards continuing to dominate, which will be a lot harder in this round than the last two, but they have what it takes.
Barrington:.To be honest, my predictor is broken for this series. I really hope the Spurs come out strong in Game 1 and out-execute a Thunder squad that hasn’t had to work hard yet this postseason. I think Game 1 is going to be the Spurs’ best chance to take over home court advantage and put the Thunder on their back foot early. But I wouldn’t be surprised if it gets turned around and the home crowd propels OKC to a big early win. Anything can happen, and that’s why sports are fun (and stressful) to watch.
I think overall, the teams are pretty evenly matched. The Thunder are the defending champs, and they have a huge experience advantage, but the Spurs are fast learners and they somehow look like playoff veterans after 11 total games so far in the last month. I expect that it will be a very tough series for both teams, but the Spurs have Wembanyama, and the Thunder don’t. Spurs in seven.
Huan: Man, oh man… will I be kicked off the site for picking the Thunder? I think the Spurs have a higher ceiling when everything is humming, but I also have faith in OKC finding ways to stop them from reaching those heights. San Antonio has surpassed every expectation this season and could absolutely blitz their way to the title, but I still think that the Thunder are the better team (even if the Spurs are a bad matchup for them), who will be able to come up with reliable counters against Wemby. I say they manage to go back-to-back, but it’ll be the Spurs’ time next year.
OKC in 7.
Gomez: The safe bet right now, before the series starts, is Thunder in six or seven games. As good as the Spurs have been since the All-Star break and in the playoffs, OKC has been better. They have an experienced championship core and have added even more talent to it with the ascent of Ajay Mitchell and the trade for Jared McCain. SGA can be unstoppable at times, and their defense is great. They are the favorites for a reason.
What would happen if the Spurs come out swinging and take homecourt advantage, though? The downside of being as good as Oklahoma City has been is that you get unfamiliar and potentially uncomfortable with adversity. If it goes long and is close, I think the Thunder will win, but I can see a world in which San Antonio shocks them early and puts them away before they can regroup.
