How about a spicy, hot take to start things off? The 2015 draft was a pretty good one, but probably isn’t as valuable these last couple of years as maybe it was three or four years ago. The first round of the 2015 draft produced 33 players who reached the major leagues. To date, those players have accumulated 262.1 WAR. Just one year earlier, the draft yielded 30 players who reached the majors from the first round for a total of 244.9 bWAR. The 2017 draft actually saw 36 players reach the majors.
But boy did things fall off of a cliff, just 83.4 bWAR between them. The top three players in terms of bWAR from the 2015 draft, have more bWAR between them than the whole first round in 2016.
Why do I bring up this seemingly arbitrary observation? Those top three players in bWAR? Alex Bregman (44.6), Dansby Swanson (29.7) and Kyle Tucker (28.1). For good measure, fourth is Ian Happ (24.2). I’d say at this point there is a better than even money shot that Ian Happ ends up being the second most productive (by bWAR) player in that draft when all is said and done. Maybe Tucker rebounds his career and makes me look silly on that. Or even Austin Riley, who is a bit lower on that list.
We certainly know by now that I’m a bigger Ian Happ fan than most of you. And I’m not sure I’ve ever had a bad word for any of Bregman, Swanson or Tucker here. But can we please ask that the Cubs stop pinning such a large chunk of their future on a draft class that is 10 years old this month? That should mean that the majority of these players are on the back 9 of their career by now. The Swanson signing was certainly a good one early in its existence. Right now, the last few years of that deal are beginning to look like quite an albatross. Kyle Tucker looked like a shrewd trade for the first few months of 2025. By the end, it was hard not to see it as unfortunate, even if you could see the wisdom of it at the time it was made. The Bregman signing??? The early returns say he’s a great teammate. But boy, the results have been rough to look at.
The irony is that Ian Happ has been the most productive of the four through the first part of 2026 and he’s set to be a free agent and quite possibly follow Tucker out the door while Swanson and Bregman stay here on hefty contracts that appear to be underwater. It’s really hard to win when you have a lot of dead money on the payroll. It doesn’t matter if you are a top spender or a spendthrift. Though Tucker’s future contract for the Dodgers is obscene. Amusingly, doing a little googling of blog posts about worst baseball contracts, I came across Andrew Benintendi another 2015 1st round pick comes up, as does Ke’Bryan Hayes, who I’ve seen rumored a few times as a Cubs trade target.
Just step away from that draft. Okay?
I didn’t talk much about the Cubs/A’s game here. But you get it. Bregman, Happ and Swanson all came up empty in this game. And so did the rest of the offense not named Nico Hoerner, really. Jameson Taillon showed signs of life, but it just didn’t matter. The Cubs managed four hits and drew two walks. Six baserunners is pathetic, particularly since three of those were Nico. Two more would be Pete Crow-Armstrong. The rest of the team was missing in action.
The cushion from the 20-3 stretch is gone. The team will start tomorrow off a game back in the Wild Card race. It’s too far from the end of the season to spend any time on that. But over the last 101 games, the Cubs will have to fight off teams in front and behind them in order to achieve one of the coveted playoff spots in the NL. As it stands right now, it appears that the target is going to be a little higher than usual to get into the playoffs. The Cubs are one of 11 teams with a .500 or better record. They’ll feast on each other some and reduce that number. But it might easily take 88 or more wins to get in. There’s a lot of work to be done. It didn’t have to be this way, but here we are.
Three Positives:
- Nico Hoerner had a single, drew two walks, stole a base and scored a run. The Cubs needed a lot more Nicos.
- Jameson Taillon threw 6.1 innings, allowing six hits, a walk and two runs. He struck out six and had a wild pitch. He pitched well enough to win.
- Hoby Milner just keeps on getting it done. Five up and five down. One strikeout.
PCA had a couple of singles, one off of a lefty. Had he not been caught stealing, I’d have listed him above.
Game 61, June 2: A’s 2, Cubs 1 (32-29)
Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.
THREE HEROES:
- Superhero: Nico Hoerner (.193). 1-2, 2 BB, R, SB
- Hero: Pete Crow-Armstrong (.155). 2-4, CS
- Sidekick: Jameson Taillon (.086). 6.1 IP, 26 BF, 6 H, BB, 2 ER, 6 K, WP (L 2-5)
THREE GOATS:
- Billy Goat: Alex Bregman (-.260). 0-4, RBI
- Goat: Seiya Suzuki (-.249). 0-4
- Kid: Ian Happ (-.192). 0-3, HBP
WPA Play of the Game: PCA’s single with Nico on first in the ninth inning and no outs. It set the table for late game heroics by the middle of the Cub order. (.185)
A’s Play of the Game: Alex Bregman followed with a strikeout. Hat tip to Scott Barlow. (.184)
Cubs Player of the Game:
Game 60 Winner: Alex Bregman received 40 of 99 votes.
Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)
The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.
- Michael Busch +21
- Ian Happ +10.5
- Nico Hoerner/Michael Conforto +10
- Alex Bregman/Ben Brown +9.5
- Ryan Rolison/Phil Maton -8
- Jameson Taillon -9
- Matt Shaw -10
- Dansby Swanson -13
- Seiya Suzuki -28.5
Current Win Pace: 85 wins
Up Next: Back at it Wednesday night at Wrigley. Pitching definitely wasn’t Tuesday’s problem, and Colin Rea (5-3, 4.70, 59.1 IP) has been one of the better Cub starters. Last time out, he was a winner, allowing two runs on four hits in 5.1 innings. He had a dip in May. Hopefully getting home gets him to bounce back. The A’s lineup isn’t particularly formidable.
Another lefty pitcher after the Cubs have lost consecutive starts against lefties. 33-year-old Jeffrey Springs (3-6, 4.07, 66.1 IP) is making his 13th start. He’s in a rough rut. In his last seven starts, he is 0-5 with a 4.66 ERA. He’s allowed 39 hits and 11 walks. That’s lead to 19 earned runs in just 36.2 innings. This team needs to get back to grinding teams down. It just hasn’t been there for weeks now.
Bounce back. A couple of weeks ago was the best time. Absent that, might as well start with this one.
