The first top 15 opponent of the Jimmy Rogers era arrives Saturday at Jack Trice Stadium. No. 15 Utah comes to Ames riding a perfect 3-0 record under first year head coach Morgan Scalley and brings with them one of the most complete rosters in the Big 12. This is not a tune up game. This is a statement opportunity.
Injury report
Know Your Opponent
Morgan Scalley spent years as Utah’s defensive coordinator before taking over the program and the results through three weeks suggest the transition has been
seamless. Utah has outscored their opponents 142-24 on the season beating Idaho 66-14, Arkansas 43-10, and Utah State 33-0. They have not allowed more than 14 points in a single game all season.
The offense runs through Devon Dampier. The dual threat quarterback has been surgical through three games throwing for 7 touchdowns against just 1 interception. He is a genuine problem for any defense because you cannot just pin your ears back and rush him, he will hurt you with his legs just as quickly as his arm.
The ground game is equally dangerous. Wayshawn Parker is averaging 4.8 yards per carry on 32 attempts. That is not flashy but it is consistent and it is the kind of running attack that wears a defense down over four quarters.
Through the air Braden Pegan has been Dampier’s most reliable target averaging 15.7 yards on 15 receptions. That is a big play threat that Iowa State’s secondary cannot afford to give cushion to. A healthy return of cornerback Ngoyi and safety Surges would go a long way in containing him and limiting Utah’s big play ability through the air.
Defensively Utah is the story of the season so far. Nate Ritchie leads the team with 15 total tackles and Elijah Elliss is right behind him at 13. They have surrendered just 24 total points in three games. That is not a coincidence. That is a program built from the ground up on defensive identity under a coach who spent a decade perfecting it.
The Iowa State Angle
Iowa State comes into this game at 2-1 but the film through three weeks raises real questions about what this offense is capable of against elite competition.
The Bowling Green win was a good outcome but it did not tell us much. The Falcons brought an inferior offensive line, defensive line, and special teams unit to Ames and Iowa State took advantage of that. Jaylen Raynor never really found a rhythm and offensive coordinator Tyler Roehl did not seem to give him the opportunity to do so. That is a conversation worth having internally before Saturday.
The Iowa game was more revealing. Iowa State’s offensive line was genuinely impressive for three quarters against a Big Ten defense. Then the fourth quarter arrived and the only first down the Cyclones generated came on the final play of the game. The offense stalled completely when it mattered most.
Raynor has to step up and make throws on Saturday. Not checkdowns. Not hand offs. Throws. Iowa had one of the better defenses in the Big Ten and Utah is equally stout. If Raynor can establish the passing game it opens up everything else for this offense including the run game. If he cannot, this could be a very long afternoon.
The pressure is on Roehl to put Raynor in positions to succeed and on Raynor to deliver when he does. Saturday is the first real measuring stick moment for both of them.
The Outlook
Utah is ranked 15th in the country for a reason and Iowa State opened as 11.5 point underdogs at home. That line has since dropped to as low as 7.5 depending on the app you use, a meaningful move that suggests the betting market has real respect for what Iowa State has shown through three weeks. The Utes are the better team on paper right now but the gap may be smaller than the preseason projections suggested.
If Iowa State can win the turnover battle and keep this game close into the fourth quarter anything is possible. A win over a top 15 team in week four of the Rogers era would change the entire conversation around this program overnight.
