It was a bad week for me with a 2-4 ATS record in picks. If I had picked later in the week, I likely would’ve flipped my pick away from UW due to the offensive line injury report, though it was the defensive failings in the first half that had as much to do with the ultimate loss. Likewise, Oregon showed major signs of life against Ohio St that I didn’t anticipate from a team that had really struggled against some inferior competition. The losses brought me to 29-30-1 ATS, so here’s hoping for a better
week to get back over .500.
Washington @ Michigan St (+3.5)
The preseason win total O/U of 7.5 seemed too low at the time. Now, the Dawgs are clinging to hope that they can pull off a road win against the Spartans to even reach bowl eligibility. With Indiana and Oregon on the horizon, it might be the last, best hope of getting a sixth victory. Michigan State has also fallen below expectations in Pat Fitzgerald’s first season. However, the surprising victory over dysfunctional Michigan has put them back on a more positive track. Like so many other Big 10 teams, Michigan St have a solid defense and often struggles to put enough points on the board. Offensively, they don’t run the ball well at all and rely on short completions to move the chains. UW has had trouble tackling in the secondary at times this year. It will be crucial to keep their MSU’s short completions as mall gains, which means avoiding the mental mistakes that have plagued the Dawgs against Penn St and Iowa.
Sparty can defend the run. They do it better than anything else on either side of the ball. The Huskies showed some life in the running game with Jayden Limar last week, but went away from that strategy too soon. Demond Williams improved over the course of the game and showed a bit more pocket presence in the second half. Between Chris Lawson and Dezmen Roebuck, the Huskies have enough passing game talent to be able to score some points in this game. Of course, things could turn badly if the gameplan doesn’t highlight these advantages or there are frequent mental mistakes once again.
Washington 24 – Michigan St 20
Illinois @ UCLA (-10)
I was worried about UCLA’s offense maintaining its high level of play after Nico Iamaleava’s injury. Since that time, all the Bruins have done is win every game they have played by double digits. Illinois deserves credit for winning above their talent level again this year. They have won four straight, though that winning streak contains several games where the opponent has imploded. Based on what I have seen from UCLA this year, I don’t expect a similar type of implosion.
UCLA 33 – Illinois 21
Northwestern @ Ohio St (-12.5)
For someone my age, it feels weird to see the #20 next to Ohio St in the schedule. It brings up memories of John Cooper. At 6-3, Northwestern’s season has to be considered a success, though consecutive losses to Oregon and Iowa have made them look mortal. It’s hard to know how much to read into Ohio St giving up 38 unanswered points to Oregon last week. If the defense is sagging, Northwestern has a shot. After two lackluster offensive performances and with a big talent deficiency, it’s hard to take Northwestern on the road.
Ohio St 35 – Northwestern 20
USC @ Indiana (-7.5)
Indiana won two in a row after their hard-fought loss against Ohio St, but both games were difficult. They beat Michigan late and needed lots of luck to beat Minnesota. Both teams coming off a bye, and USC’s last outing was their season-saving win over Ohio St. Of course, every time Lincoln Riley seems to be getting on track at USC, things go horribly awry (see the Oregon game earlier this year). I can’t pick Indiana to blow out any conference foe at the moment, but I’m also not all the way there on picking USC to win outright.
Indiana 27 – USC 24
Michigan @ Oregon (-11)
Oregon fired their offensive coordinator and exploded for 41 points against Ohio St. Will the same move pay off for Michigan, whose offense has been stuck in even deeper mud than the Ducks’ was? The only unit I trust on either of these teams is Michigan’s defense. It won’t be enough for them to win the game, but they haven’t lost by double digits all year and Oregon’s offense has been inconsistent.
Oregon 27 – Michigan 17
Minnesota @ Penn St (-9.5)
Minnesota has struggled in their last two games against the top two teams in the conference, Indiana and UCLA (what is this, the 1973 Final Four?). Penn St has won two in a row against Purdue and Washington. Sure, wins are better than losses, but I’m not sure those games tell us much due to the relative degrees of difficulty. This one will stay close and low-scoring.
Penn St 20 – Minnesota 14
