For the first time since the spring training Grapefruit League slate began on February 20th, the New York Yankees will not play a baseball game today. Since we don’t have new Statcast data and game film to analyze, that makes today the perfect opportunity to kickstart what is, in my opinion, the best preseason series we do here at Pinstripe Alley: the annual Making the Team Meter.
For those new to Pinstripe Alley or who need a refresher: every year, we track the roster throughout the spring through this
weekly series, helping fans keep pace with which players are most likely to break camp with the team. Here’s the key that we use:
As one can see, it’s fairly straightforward: red means that a player is almost certainly not going to make the roster, yellow tells us that a player has a shot if things break right, and green says, “We’ll see you in San Francisco for Opening Day on March 25th.”
Every spring, the pitching staff always generates the most discussion, and this year is no different. Heading into camp, the Yankees had a trio of starters already guaranteed to miss Opening Day — Gerrit Cole, Clarke Schmidt, and Carlos Rodón — while the bullpen has seen almost a complete makeover since last spring and will have several spots up for grabs. Since the start of camp, though, minor injuries may have put more spots in play, while multiple top prospects have captured a lot of attention with their performance on the mound.
Note that, within this list, I use the FanGraphs Depth Chart to decide whether to mark a pitcher as either a starter or a reliever. Because of this, several pitchers on the roster bubble — particularly prospects and non-roster invites — will be listed as starters to represent the fact that they will fill out the Scranton rotation; if they make the major league club, however, there’s a good chance they’ll work out of the bullpen. We’re also a little more lenient with the yellow ratings this early in camp because some names can truly come out of nowhere to make an impression. Call it the 2021 Lucas Luetge Principle.
The Yankees’ plan for the starting rotation has been clear for months. Max Fried will almost certainly get the ball on Opening Day, 2025 playoff phenom Cam Schlittler will get the ball behind him, and some combination of 2024 Rookie of the Year, new trade acquisition Ryan Weathers, and the second-year Will Warren will fill out the rotation behind them.
Although at the moment, I still expect that to be the case, two major wrenches have been thrown into the conversation. One, Schlittler was sidelined early in the spring due to back inflammation, and although manager Aaron Boone says that he will be ready to go Opening Day even if he’s only built up to 70-80 pitches instead of the normal 90-100 you’re looking for, until we see him pitch in a spring training game, we can’t mark him down as a certainty. And two, Elmer Rodriguez has looked electric in his two spring training starts, striking out five and walking just one in six innings of work; sure, he has a long way to go towards seizing a starting job out of camp, but as Joe Girardi said on the YES broadcast, Jordan Montgomery was able to do exactly that in 2017. How quickly Schlittler returns to the mound, and how Rodriguez looks in the World Baseball Classic, could upend our calculus on the Yankees’ rotation, and bears watching.
The bullpen, on the other hand, is much more unsettled. David Bednar will be the closer. Camilo Doval and Fernando Cruz will work the late innings in front of him. Tim Hill, Ryan Yarbrough, and Paul Blackburn will be there too (although it must be noted that any of the latter two could wind up in the rotation depending on injuries). That leaves two spots up for grabs. The early favorites are probably Jake Bird, who the Yankees acquired at last year’s Trade Deadline, Angel Chivilli (a more recent Rockies trade acquistion), and Cade Winquest, who they acquired in the Rule 5 Draft and thus must stay on the active roster all year. But at this point, it’s far too early to truly rule anybody out.
Anybody except the Yankees’ top pitching prospects, that is. Is the idea of putting Carlos Lagrange and his 103-mph fastball in the bullpen to start the year enticing? For sure. Would the Yankees much prefer to keep him working as a starter and possibly bring him up in, say, July or August, and unleash that 103-mph fastball in the starting rotation? Absolutely.
Next, let’s take a look at the catchers.
Last year was the first time in literal years that the Yankees had a true battle for the backup catcher job in spring training. This year, we once again now from the beginning of the spring who the Yankees’ main catchers are …albeit with a catch (rimshot). Austin Wells is the starter, certainly, and should he get hurt, J.C. Escarra will probably slide into the starting job. But will he be continuously rostered, or will the Yankees opt to use Ben Rice as the backup catcher to keep his bat in the lineup when they want to play Paul Goldschmidt against a tough lefty? It’s unlikely, as the Yankees have yet to give Rice any time behind the plate this spring, but it’s still early.
That being said, if Rice exclusively plays first base this week, then we can safely assume it’ll be Wells and Escarra. One can’t fully rule out a last-second trade acquisition either, like when the Yankees brought Jose Trevino aboard days before Opening Day 2022 to join Kyle Higashioka in a better tandem behind the plate than the in-house options of the moment.
Last, and certainly not least, we have the rest of the position players:
Let’s get one thing out of the way from the beginning. Yes, I love Spencer Jones’ moonshot home runs. Yes, the idea of him hitting behind/in front of Aaron Judge and giving opposing pitchers something truly scary to think about is really, really enticing. The truth is, though, he’s not making the Opening Day roster, and he may not even get the call-up to the Show this season. Jones has regularly performed well in spring training, only to strike out a ton in the minor leagues, and while there’s hope that his new Ohtani-esque batting stance may help him cut down on the K’s, we need to see it in action over a long period of time in Triple-A before we’ll even have a chance to see it in the Bronx. The contact issues simply need to improve in games that matter.
Moving on, let’s turn to the real drama: the bench. Once the Yankees re-signed Paul Goldschmidt, the bench immediately got crowded, as Amed Rosario, Oswaldo Cabrera, and Jasson Domínguez appeared to have the three non-catcher bench spots locked up; in fact, it was this jam that led to the speculation that the team could use Rice as the backup catcher, freeing up another spot. The last two weeks, however, have significantly changed this calculus.
For starters, barring an injury to Giancarlo Stanton or one of the outfielders, it seems likely that the Yankees will start the Martian in Triple-A Scranton so he can get everyday at bats against left-handed pitchers and regular reps in left field; reinforcing this inclination is the team’s recent decision to sign Randal Grichuk, a corner outfielder who has historically crushed southpaws, to a minor-league deal worth $2.5 million if he makes the team. Then, it was reported that Oswaldo Cabrera’s ankle hasn’t quite recovered to the point where they’re comfortable having him practice sliding, and he seems to be on track to start the season on the IL. And lastly, the organization has given Paul DeJong the number 18 — and while vets on minor-league deals don’t typically receive high numbers like prospects generally do, such a low number suggests the Yankees may be inclined to have him start the season as the starting shortstop. With Anthony Volpe out, the team doesn’t have a true backup shortstop to Caballero, as Rosario doesn’t seem like a viable option there anymore and the only other remote alternative with Cabrera injured is the standard third baseman Ryan McMahon.
Right now, FanGraphs lists the Yankees’ bench as Escarra, Goldschmidt, Rosario, and Grichuk, with the latter three serving as platoon partners of sorts with Rice, McMahon, and Trent Grisham, respectively. Brendan Kuty and Chris Kirschner of The Athletic have Escarra, Goldschmidt, Rosario, and Cabrera, seemingly believing that the utilityman will get up to speed in time — although it must be noted that their projection came before Grichuk’s addition. Both projections ignore Max Schuemann and Jorbit Vivas, a pair of infielders who may have a leg up in the roster battle because they’re already on the 40-man roster.
Personally, I think FanGraphs is likely right on the nose here; the Yankees can cover all infield positions besides shortstop with Rosario, and if McMahon takes reps at shortstop as reported, they won’t need to worry about carrying a dedicated backup to Caballero to start the season. This flexibility allows them to focus on their main need, a right-handed bat to balance out their very left-handed lineup. But it’s March 3rd, and Opening Day is March 25th — a lot always changes between now and then.
And that is where the Yankees roster stands coming into today. Do you agree with our assessments? Tune in again next week to see how things change after another week of game action.
