Well, that stinks! Arsenal looked to be heading towards a respectable 1-1 draw at Villa Park only to be done in by the last kick of the match. Aston Villa’s win pulls them to within three points of Arsenal at the top
of the table and opens the door for Manchester City to trim their deficit to 2 points.
The result was a schedule loss if I’ve ever seen one. Arsenal are injured and tired. Aston Villa have hardly any injuries and are, as a result, fresher. That’s what playing in the Europa League will do in comparison to the Champions League. It was clear to see in the second half. Arsenal ran out of gas. If you’ll allow me a moment to complain: why does it feel like it’s always Arsenal who are on the short end of this particular stick? When do we get to play a tougher fixture with the opponent in a difficult spot and not vice-versa?
The Gunners really felt the effects of having THREE centerbacks out injured. Aston Villa managed more than 2 expected goals against Arsenal.* The last time that happened in a non-dead rubber match was at Manchester City in April 2023. I’m quite confident that neither of the Villa goals happen with Saliba and Gabriel on the pitch. One or both probably don’t happen with Cristhian Mosquera playing, either. And the absences have cascading effects. Do Arsenal concede a winner from the right side of the defense at the death if the right back is a fresh Ben White, who had come on for Jurrien Timber with around 15-20 minutes remaining as has been the case when both guys were healthy? Maybe Piero Hincapie has more in his legs to not lose the ball into touch before the winning goal if he is playing next to a regular CB instead of a makeshift one. It’s a shame Hincapie made that tired mistake just before the goal — he had a solid match otherwise.
*I would note that Ollie Watkins’ saved chance in the first half accounts for 0.65 of that total and had it gone in, it probably would have been called back for a foul by John McGinn on Riccardo Calafiori in the buildup. Without that, the total dips well under 2 xGA, but the point still stands. Arsenal are much more open while missing three centerbacks, particularly the best pairing in the world.
The unfortunate reality is that Arsenal aren’t getting all their defenders back anytime soon. William Saliba is closest to returning, but all we’ve gotten from Mikel Arteta is a vague “days” estimation. So they’re going to have to make it work with what they’ve got, and that starts with getting a bit of rest. Mikel Arteta isn’t likely to rotate all that much for the midweek Champions League match, so it’ll have to come next weekend home to Wolves and then in the full week off before the Everton match.
Just a bit more energy from somewhere on the pitch and Arsenal likely walk away with a draw. Perhaps Mikel Arteta should have used Christian Nørgaard in place of a clearly exhausted Declan Rice for the last 5-10 minutes of the match. But apparently Mikel has forgotten the Dane exists, or at least you might think that given he will not call his number.
If you rewind the match a bit more before Villa’s goal at the death, you find a Noni Madueke mistake. He fired an extremely low percentage shot (like a 2 or 3-percenter) out for a goal kick. If he keeps the ball, recycles it across the face of goal, or does pretty much anything other than hand it directly back to Aston Villa, the ball is down in their end of the pitch and the match ends 1-1.
On that same move, Viktor Gyokeres is almost comically late arriving into the box for what would have been an excellent chance to win the match from Declan Rice’s early ball in. The Big Swede offered very little in the second half. He’s been disappointing for Arsenal so far. Some of that isn’t his fault. When he was fit, the attack was significantly unsettled by injuries. Then when guys started getting healthy, he picked up an injury of his own. While you can maybe understand why he’s not been effective, it doesn’t change the fact that Arsenal need more from a guy they paid more than £50M for to score goals.
Gyokeres was on the pitch in part because Mikel Merino, who has been quite good as a fill-in striker, was terrible. He was particularly loose in possession and his horrid decision to attempt a backheel to nobody in particular was the turnover that led to Aston Villa breaking the other way for the opening goal. Ebere Eze, who was likewise ineffective and substituted at halftime, completely fell asleep at the back post and lost Matty Cash.
Hincapie dribbling the ball out (after mopping up the play nicely), Merino giving the ball away with a bad choice, Eze losing his mark — those are the kind of mistakes that tired legs and tired minds are more likely to make. You do your best to avoid them because so often they turn matches but that’s what happened. Arsenal lost today because they are running on less than fumes, mostly because of injuries. Players have had to play more than you’d like them to and guys, even though they are back in the squad, aren’t fully firing.
That’s why Leandro Trossard, who came on at halftime, was substituted off after about 30 minutes. Per Mikel Arteta, the medical staff determined he only had about that long in his legs because of the calf injury he’s managing. Fortunately, in those 30 minutes, he was able to score to level the match after Bukayo Saka set him up brilliantly.
Saka was excellent, although he misplaced his finishing boots. He, along with two or three of his teammates in the first half, hit rather tame shots too close to Emi Martinez from promising positions. Saka also set up a tap-in goal for Ebere Eze but was offside in the buildup. I’d mention that Saka was clearly grabbed and fouled as he tried to break behind his defender on the move. Perhaps without that foul he’s able to bend his run and stay onside or the timing of the play isn’t thrown off.
But that was the match Arsenal got. The referee let a fair bit of clutching, grabbing, and physicality go. The referee didn’t let Riccardo Calafiori get away with a grab on John McGinn in the second half, though. The Italian was booked for the foul, which means he’ll miss the Wolves match. It was certainly a booking. It’s just annoying that Arsenal were booked for it when the referee was rather permissive with it all game and didn’t book an Aston Villa fullback for a similar foul on Saka in the first half. That’s often the way it goes in the Premier League.
If you’re looking for a positive takeaway from the match, Martin Ødegaard seems to have found his form. He was particularly good in the second half. He forced a really good save from Martinez from distance, on a shot that might have been going over or onto the bar. He had another decent chance from outside the box that he struck pretty well but right at Martinez. Arsenal need somebody to drag them through this difficult stretch of fatigue and injuries. Perhaps the captain can be that guy.
Let’s put things into perspective, Arsenal just went 18 matches unbeaten in all competitions. Today was just their second defeat of the year. Even in their beleaguered state, they played Aston Villa mostly even at Villa Park and could have left with a draw. That doesn’t mean anything in the table — dropped points are dropped points — but when you’re evaluating things, it’s worth keeping in mind. Their only other loss came as a result of a worldie free kick in an otherwise evenly played match. Yes, the top of the Premier League table is tight at the moment, but if Arsenal can take care of business against Wolves at home (we’ve got much bigger problems if they can’t manage that), they get a week off to rest, recuperate, and get sharp.
Deep breath. The result stings but it’s not going to be the difference-maker this season.
