Game notes
- Time and date: Friday, October 9 at 7:30 p.m. ET
- Network: ESPN2
- Location: DATCU — Denton, TX
- Spread: South Florida (-1.5)
- Over/under: 68.5
- All-time series: South Florida leads, 2-0
- Last meeting: South Florida 24, North Texas 17 — October 5, 2002
- Current streak: South Florida, 2 (2001-02)
Setting the scene
Welcome to Denton, TX like you’ve never seen it before.
The university canceled classes on Friday in anticipation for this high-stakes event which could be the most attended in DATCU Stadium history. North
Texas is 5-0 for the first time since 1959, and the Mean Green enjoy a favorable schedule that opens up a realistic path to their first-ever American Conference Championship Game. However, their toughest test looms as for the fifth time ever, they host a ranked opponent in Denton. No. 24 South Florida already generated two ranked wins to start the year, and the Bulls can add a signature conference win to that résumé in their quest to rise in the polls.
North Texas vs. South Florida is the marquee matchup nobody asked for heading into 2025, but it’s the one college football fans — especially the fans of these programs — deserve.
South Florida Bulls outlook
South Florida (4-1, 1-0 American) is back in the rankings after a brief hiatus. The Bulls survived an impressive gauntlet to start the season, dismantling Boise State by 27 and upending Florida on the road for back-to-back ranked wins. Three-straight ranked wins proved too tall of a task as current No. 2 Miami (FL) pulverized an upset-hopeful USF in 49-12 fashion. But South Florida is back on track with consecutive wins, dominating its conference opener last Friday night with a 54-26 handling of Charlotte.
However, the Bulls’ margin for error was so great against the 49ers that the four-touchdown victory shielded some concerns. USF committed four turnovers and was subject to a bevy of drops and penalties alike. But amidst the sloppiness, the Bulls enjoyed a much-needed offensive masterclass after opening the year as more of a defensive-oriented team. Third-year starting quarterback Byrum Brown showcased his agility and escapability to the tune of 162 rushing yards — a new career-high for the mobile quarterback. Additionally, Brown fired four touchdowns for the second-straight game, checking off both boxes in the definition of “dual-threat quarterback.”
Brown is USF’s leading rusher, but the Bulls must search for more firepower on the ground after the loss of Cartevious Norton, who was carted off the field last Friday. Sam Franklin and Alvon Isaac will likely proceed with a split backfield, and both tailbacks display explosiveness with 7.2 and 6.2 yards per carry, respectively, on the season.
Explosiveness is a key trait of USF’s hyper speed offense which relies on quick quarterback reads. Brown is no stranger to hitting receivers 20 yards beyond the line of scrimmage, and his leading receiver Chas Nimrod has 421 receiving yards on a 22.2 average. Keshaun Singleton has also hauled in multiple deep touchdowns this year, fueling the Bulls to 36.2 points per game.
South Florida’s offense has never been a weakness under head coach Alex Golesh, but defensive improvement is what flipped this program from the middle of the American standings into the AP Poll. The blowout at Miami (FL) certainly skewed some stats the wrong way, but other than that week, USF’s defense has been dynamite — limiting Boise State to 7 and Florida to 16.
The linebacker tandem of Mac Harris and Jhalyn Shuler is one of the best pairings in the country. Both standouts are longtime Bulls, and they’re in the midst of all-conference caliber seasons. Harris ranks atop the unit with 46 tackles to go along with 3.5 tackles for loss and a sack. Meanwhile Shuler has a loaded stat line of 42 tackles, 4.0 sacks, three forced fumbles, and a 93-yard pick-six. Those two are the ultimate havoc inducers, but this defense’s talent spreads to other position groups. The secondary has demonstrated massive improvement with De’Shawn Rucker operating as one of the league’s top cover corners and James Chenault leading a group that has 11 takeaways on the year — tied for seventh in the FBS.
North Texas Mean Green outlook
North Texas (5-0, 1-0 American) is one of 15 undefeated teams still standing. The Mean Green haven’t even enjoyed a winning season in seven years, yet Eric Morris has this team in prime position to not only secure a ranking and even qualify for an American Conference Championship. Sure, it’s too early to talk conference championships with seven games looming on the schedule, but knocking off No. 24 South Florida is a massive step in the right direction — considering North Texas avoids Memphis, Tulane, and East Carolina on the schedule.
To fully appreciate what Morris and his staff have done in Denton, it’s important to remember what North Texas lost. The Mean Green lost seven starters from a 2024 offense which ranked third in the FBS in yards per game. Losses included star quarterback Chandler Morris, who currently leads a ranked Virginia squad, leading rusher Shane Porter, and the top three leading receivers including all-conference talent DT Sheffield.
Replacing Chandler Morris is Drew Mestemaker, whose unlikely rise to stardom has been well-documented. The 2024 First Responder Bowl was Mestemaker’s first start at quarterback since ninth grade, and he hasn’t lost a single game since. The redshirt freshman is taking exceptional care of the ball as one of three quarterbacks with 11+ touchdowns and zero interceptions on the year. Mestemaker showed the ability to produce inflated passing numbers in last year’s bowl, but he hasn’t needed to this year. He has yet to eclipse 250 yards on an FBS opponent, however, efficiency is his speciality — completing 67.9 percent of passes.
Another young standout in Denton is true freshman running back Caleb Hawkins. The Oklahoma native made a name for himself with 99 rushing yards and four touchdowns in the overtime win at Army, and the following week, the big-play back produced 140 rushing yards, 78 receiving yards, and three total touchdowns. The 6’2”, 200 pounder sheds tackles with ease, and presents an ideal size and speed configuration at the position. Even with Hawkins’ emergence, there’s still enough touches for Makenzie McGill to eat, and McGill has crossed the century mark twice this year.
North Texas’ eighth-ranked scoring offense didn’t lose any steam from last year’s dynamic unit. But last year’s Mean Green only won five games total. The difference? The defense underwent the most drastic improvement imaginable under first-year coordinator Skyler Cassity. Cassity, led by his army of Sam Houston transfers, catapulted the Mean Green from the 128th-ranked total defense to 39th.
While North Texas still sees occasional lapses defending the run, the team is incredibly sound guarding the air. Opponents average 136 passing yards per game on a 53.6 completion rate, and the Mean Green are a turnover machine, matching South Florida with 11 takeaways to rank seventh in the FBS.
Names to watch on this unit are linebackers Shane Whitter, Ethan Wesloski, and Trey Fields. They are the team’s three leading tacklers, and they combine for 9.5 tackles for loss, three interceptions, and two forced fumbles as the most disruptive members of the defense.
Prediction
Two things can be true — (1) these defenses are drastically improved, and that’s the defining feature flipping South Florida and North Texas from middling American teams to conference title contenders, and (2) the tools are in place for a high-scoring shootout on Friday night.
The offensive skill talent across the board can be overwhelming, as North Texas features one of the best one-two running back punches this season while South Florida offers a dual-threat quarterback capable of dominating defenses. There will also be a tremendous injection of speed when these offenses possess the ball, and there will be plenty of possessions to go around. The high takeaway rates also suggest a fair amount of turnovers may be present Friday, and the occasional possession may stall on a crucial interception or fumble.
In summary, there will be no shortage of action in this highly-anticipated showdown. While North Texas will receive the home crowd boost from a fiery TDECU Stadium, South Florida is battle tested in difficult road environments and Alex Golesh’s team enters with the more balanced defense. That defense can produce the extra stop needed to pull off the statement road win and maintain a spot in the AP Top 25.
Prediction: South Florida 38, North Texas 34
