Obviously, the headline itself is shocking. It is also hyperbolic in nature. Saying baseball is broken is suggesting that we are seeing things we have never seen before. As hard as it is to believe, free agency and arbitration have actually been leveling factors in terms of competitive balance. Before the reserve clause was outlawed, the same power franchises controlled the sport. They hoarded talent and much of that talent was wasted in organizations that would never use it.
That is the real impetus
behind things like Rule V draft and minor league free agency. This was particularly true before the amateur draft in 1966 when the same teams could simply offer bigger bonuses to the game’s best amateur talent. So, the game has actually gotten more fair in the intervening decades. So, baseball has a perception problem more than anything else.
Between 1920 and 1964, the Yankees won 29 pennants and 20 World Series titles. Maybe even more importantly, they averaged more than 90 wins a season throughout that time. In point of fact, they had only ten seasons during that run where they did not win 90 or more games. Of course, things were equally bad on the other end. Between 1920 and 1940, the Philadelphia Phillies AVERAGED 100 losses a season. The Athletics weren’t quite THAT bad, but baseball was miserable in the city of brotherly love. Maybe that is why they are so cranky.
Before the American League came into being it was much worse. Some owners owned multiple teams and so they used one to essentially outfit the other. Most seasoned baseball fans are familiar with the 1899 Cleveland Spiders that finished a ridiculous 20-134. Obviously, that has little to do with what is going on now, but it is an interesting footnote to demonstrate that what people believe to be true and what is actually true can be two entirely different things.
This gets us back to the idea of sport itself. Some people consider pro wrestling to be a sport, but it isn’t one. In order to be a sport the outcome cannot be scripted. People have to believe and no that it is not pre-determined. That belief has been shattered in the last couple of years by the Los Angeles Dodgers. It is one thing to outsmart or outwork the competition. It is something else to just completely outspend them. Let’s simply consider the top five payrolls in the sport.
There is a lot to unpack here. First, the Dodgers do not have the highest payroll in the sport. Obviously, the contracts of Kyle Tucker and the acquisition of Tarik Skubal would lead fans to think so and their heavy use of deferred deals has an impact on that. The actual total cash outlay is far different. However, this table demonstrates a number of things that are competing in nature. Three of the five times are playoff bound, but the Blue Jays and Mets are proof that spending by itself doesn’t guarantee anything.
The difference for a team like the Dodgers is that not all of their money is being optimally spent. Just on the rotation, they have Shohei Ohtani, Blake Snell, and Tyler Glasnow are on the shelf (pitching only for Ohtani). When that much firepower is on the shelf most teams are going to struggle. The Dodgers simply add the top starter on the market.
Imagine Saquon Barkley going down for the Philadelphia Eagles and them turning around and adding Bijan Robinson for three middling prospects or lower round draft picks. The NFL is not set up that way. They wouldn’t be able to fit him under the cap, but when there isn’t a cap, that kind of thing is just easier to pull off. The Dodgers have already won back to back World Series titles and they seem destined to win a third. Obviously, the key in sports is that the future hasn’t been written. Anything can happen in a short series, but do fans really believe the issue is still in doubt?
The notion that the sport is broken is certainly hyperbolic. Six teams (or 20 percent of the sport) have won eight or more World Series titles over the years. This year will be the 125th World Series. Those six teams have won 73 of them. Much of those came before the reserve clause was finally broken. Still, it feeds the idea from some fans that the cards are stacked against them before the year even gets started.
So, the next obvious question is how you fix it. The owners want a salary cap. The players don’t want to have that. The good news is that both sides agree there should be a salary floor. That by itself will go a long way to improving fan morale around the sport. It will certainly do a lot for Pirates, Royals, Rays, and Athletics fans. A quick look at the bottom five payrolls and their records as compared to the top five payrolls.
So, the bottom five teams are a combined 23 games under .500 and that is mostly Homeless team. Ironically, only one of the bottom five teams were teams I mentioned in the previous paragraph. So, more than one thing can be true at the same time. The spending discrepancy is very real. There is an average of over 200 million dollars difference between the top spenders and the bottom spenders. That is obviously not sustainable from a public relations standpoint.
However, four of these five teams are competitive. So, there is a gap between perception and reality. Perception sells though. Fans buy tickets when they think their team has a chance. They tune in if they believe the issue is in doubt. They follow the sport if there is some suspense. Eyeballs and butts in seats equal advertising dollars. It equals lucrative television contracts. It equals apparel sales. Whether money spent actually equals success or not, the sport has to contend with the perception that this is the reality.
The sport is headed for civil war. It isn’t just players vs. owners. It is rich owners vs. poor owners. Maybe more important than the presence of an actual fix is the appearance of a fix. They cannot simply reintroduce a similar system with minor tweaks. They certainly can’t do it if games are canceled. It only makes sense if fans believe their club has a shot year in and year out. Skubal and Tucker to the Dodgers broke a lot of fans. Minor tweaks aren’t going to put them back together.
