Game notes
- Time and date: Thursday, December 18 at 9:00 p.m. ET
- Network: ESPN2
- Location: Ford Center at The Star — Frisco, TX
- Spread: Arkansas State (-1.5)
- Over/under: 54.5
- All-time series: No previous matchups
- Arkansas State last bowl: 2024 68 Ventures Bowl, 38-31 win over Bowling Green
- Missouri State last bowl: N/A
Setting the scene
Achievement unlocked — new bowl game created. The Xbox Bowl debuts in Frisco, TX on Thursday night, serving as the effective replacement of the former Bahamas Bowl, which although fun for fans and viewers,
was a logistical planning nightmare for ESPN Events.
With Toyota Stadium under construction, this new bowl game is slated to kick off at the 12,000-seat indoor Ford Center at The Star — which serves as the Dallas Cowboys’ practice facility. And what’s more fitting for a new bowl game than a new team?
Making their bowl debut is the Missouri State Bears which transitioned from the FCS to the FBS this season. Missouri State bypassed its one-year bowl ban due to a lack of eligible teams, and the Bears enter with an opportunity to create new history. However, that history will be created without head coach Ryan Beard who already accepted a job at Coastal Carolina. Interim head coach and offensive coordinator Nick Petrino will step in to lead Missouri State in its first-ever bowl matchup.
Occupying the other sideline is a bowl veteran in Arkansas State, which is bowling for the third-straight year under head coach Butch Jones. The Red Wolves experienced a roller coaster of a season with a rough start, excellent middle, and rocky finish, but all of that can be tossed aside as the team searches for their second-consecutive bowl win.
Hold the Right Trigger to sprint, B button to spin, and if you use the hit stick, you best not miss in this inaugural Xbox Bowl.
Missouri State Bears outlook
Missouri State (7-5, 5-3 CUSA) exceeded all expectations in year one of FBS membership. The Bears won five-straight conference matchups in the middle of the season and never took a bad loss — falling to 9-3 USC, 8-4 SMU, 8-4 WKU, 10-3 Kennesaw State, and 7-5 Louisiana Tech.
They generally thrived in close matchups, posting a 5-2 record in one-score games, but Missouri State’s game management duties shift from Ryan Beard to interim head coach Nick Petrino to close out this magical season. Petrino specialized in leading the team’s 22nd-ranked passing offense throughout the season, generating an effective aerial attack through seventh-year senior Jacob Clark.
The 6’5”, 220 pound Clark lit up the sky with three 330+, 3+ touchdown outings this year, firing 24 touchdowns to 11 interceptions in a standout season. Clark relies on an even distribution of targets, as four different Bears have between 32 and 40 receptions and five different Bears lie within the 421 to 536 receiving yards range. The core group of receivers is comprised of Jmariyae Robinson, Dash Luke, Tristian Gardner, and Ronnel Johnson, while secondary tailback Ramone Green Jr. is also heavily utilized in the passing game. However, the passing game was often deterred by an oncoming rush, and Missouri State is currently third-to-last in the FBS in sacks allowed at 3.7 per game.
On the ground, Missouri State primarily operates under one workhorse back in All-CUSA selection Shomari Lawrence, who lies 36 yards short of his first 1,000-yard season. But other than Lawrence, there’s a lack of cooks in the kitchen and the Bears rank 114th nationally in rushing yards per game — primarily operating as a pass-happy unit.
Defensively, the Bears struggled out of the gate by allowing 73 to USC but responded with a stellar season… until the final two weeks of action. During games 2-10, Missouri State never surrendered more than 28, but it allowed 41.5 points per game during its last two losses — mightily struggling as a pass defense vs. Kennesaw State and as a run defense vs. Louisiana Tech.
In its first year as an FBS team, Missouri State didn’t create too much pressure up front, and DJ Wesolak (4.5 sacks) was the only Bear to eclipse three sacks on the season. The Bears were 120th in tackles for loss with Wesloak (7.0 TFL) and Mitchell Toney (5.0 TFL) leading the way from the defensive line. Toney missed the last two weeks of the regular season, and his absence proved to be lethal for the Bears’ defense.
Backfield pressure was a struggle, but one area this defense excelled in was creating havoc in the secondary. Missouri State racked up 48 pass deflections on the year, including 11 from well-traveled cornerback Jordan Dunbar, who enjoyed a stellar senior season after stops at Rice and Kansas State. Maguire Neal and Thomas Anderson were other members of the secondary contributing to this department, and those two also combined for 124 tackles.
Arkansas State Red Wolves outlook
Arkansas State (6-6, 5-3 Sun Belt) is back in a groove, bowling for the third-consecutive season. The Red Wolves took several years to reignite the program under Butch Jones, but now the veteran coach can clinch the program’s second-straight bowl victory and winning season in Frisco on Thursday night.
It was anything but a linear journey for the Red Wolves to get here. They endured a 1-4 start, rattled off four-straight wins to control their own destiny in the Sun Belt West division, but then fell to 5-6 — needing a last-minute touchdown at Appalachian State to clinch bowl eligibility in the final week.
Arkansas State is here largely due to the same quarterback and receiver duo that manufactured the 2024 68 Ventures Bowl win — Jaylen Raynor and Corey Rucker. Raynor led the entire Sun Belt with 3,073 passing yards during the regular season, finishing on a high-note with a season-best 363 yards vs. App State. Although he threw 16 touchdowns to 11 interceptions, Raynor was efficient outside of the turnovers, connecting on 67.2 percent of attempts. The junior is not afraid to take risks, and that includes the run game where he produced 434 yards (third on the team) and an Arkansas State-high seven touchdowns.
Rucker, the team’s leading receiver for the fourth time since 2021, generated a team-high 866 receiving yards with four games over the century mark. He posted 107 yards and two touchdowns to defeat Bowling Green last Bowl Season and aims for the perfect sendoff of a six-year college career — with five years in Jonesboro.
The other skill position talents guiding the nation’s 72nd-ranked total offense include the running back duo of Devin Spencer and Kenyon Clay, as well as wide receiver Chauncy Cobb. Spencer (5’8”, 170 pounds) and Clay (6’1”, 220 pounds) provide a good foil to one another with contrasting sizes and skill sets, while Cobb is tied with Rucker for the team lead at 69 receptions.
Arkansas State’s primary issue on offense all year was turnovers. Only six FBS teams coughed up the ball more times than the Red Wolves, which had 23 giveaways in a sloppy campaign. The defense totaled 14 takeaways for itself, putting the team at a -9 on the year.
Defense wasn’t exactly a strong suit for this team, which is 107th in defending the run and 99th in containing the run. But not all is gloomy on that end for Butch Jones’ squad. Arkansas State presents a potent pass rush, picking up 2.6 sacks per game behind the defensive end tandem of Eathan Hassler and Demarcus Hendricks, who combined for 13 sacks. Both were All-Sun Belt selections, as was defensive tackle Cody Sigler, who commands significant attention in the middle — batting down five passes at the line of scrimmage.
On the back end, AG McGhee is the name to watch, looking to combat Missouri State’s passing attack. McGhee is tied for first on the unit in deflections and ranks second in tackles, and he’ll be signing off on his college career Thursday night in Frisco.
Prediction
The third CUSA vs. Sun Belt bout of Bowl Season has the makings of a close finish, pitting together evenly matched teams. Both Missouri State and Arkansas State thrive through their passing offenses, and neither team is equipped with the secondary to produce routine stops. However, some sloppy play and a few turnovers will prevent this one from reaching shootout territory.
Neither team was renowned ground game dominance this year, but Shomari Lawrence will be the x-factor Thursday night. In his quest for a 1,000-yard season, the Missouri State running back takes the reins in Frisco, becoming the star at The Star to hand the Bears their first-ever bowl win.
Prediction: Missouri State 27, Arkansas State 23
