The first-place Seattle Mariners. That has a nice ring to it. Behind a perfect, seven-game homestand, the M’s took sole possession of the AL West lead for the first time since early June. This is also the latest in the season they’ve led the division since 2001. Now, they’ll head out on the most important road trip of their season. It begins with a three-game series against a pesky Royals ballclub that’s desperate to stay in the AL Wild Card race. It ends with a season-defining three-game set in Houston
that could very well decide the division. And make no mistake, winning the West should be the Mariners priority. It would give them home-field advantage in the Wild Card round of the playoffs — since the All-Star break, Seattle has gone 23-6 inside T-Mobile Park — and, more importantly, they’d be able to actually hang a new banner in the rafters.
The Royals managed to stick with the Mariners, Rangers, and Guardians in the Wild Card standings for most of the second half, but a terrible week last week dashed their chances of making a surprise playoff run. They went 2-5 against Cleveland and Philadelphia, and while they’re not officially eliminated, a 6.5 game deficit is a lot of ground to make up in just two weeks. This series against the M’s represents their last chance to get back into the race and they’re giving it everything they have. Kansas City will be activating both Cole Ragans and Michael Wacha off the IL this week in a last ditch attempt to turn the season around.
Despite a pretty flawed roster, the Royals opted to make a bunch of smaller trades at the deadline to bring in a number of role players to support their lineup. Mike Yastrzemski (122 wRC+ since August 1) and Adam Frazier (95 wRC+) have been decent upgrades but Randal Grichuk (27 wRC+) has been abysmal. But really, this whole lineup runs through Bobby Witt Jr., Vinnie Pasquantino, and Maikel Garcia. That trio has been excellent all season long but it’s no surprise that Kansas City’s skid corresponds with a slump from Witt’s bat — he posted a 108 wRC+ last week and is at just 121 in September. Pasquantino has been carrying most of the load this month (140 wRC+ in September), but the lineup just isn’t deep enough to support him when the other stars aren’t producing.
Probable Pitchers
From a previous series preview:
After bouncing around four teams in four years from 2020–23, Michael Wacha has found a home with the Royals. He posted a career-best 3.3 fWAR in 2024 and signed a three-year extension to stay in Kansas City through his age-35 season this offseason. Wacha added a slider to his pitch mix last year to bring the number of pitches in his repertoire up to six. None of them are all that outstanding except for his changeup which is one of the best in baseball. A deep pitch mix with a bunch of average-ish offerings and one elite pitch is the type of kitchen-sink starter the Royals have coveted recently, and it’s undeniably worked out for them.
Wacha was placed on the 7-day IL last week with concussion-like symptoms stemming from an off-field incident. He’ll be activated from the IL to make Tuesday’s start.
Cole Ragans looked like a burnout pitching prospect with the Rangers until a midseason trade to Kansas City in 2023. He added four ticks to his fastball velocity that season and introduced a nasty slider to his pitch mix after his first start in Triple-A following the trade. He was called up in August and was masterful across 11 starts to finish that season. He backed everything up with a dominant 4.8 fWAR season last year. This year, things haven’t gone to plan. His peripherals look better than ever — his strikeout rate is up more than seven points and his walk rate is down a touch — but his ERA is a whopping 5.18. To make matters worse, he hit the IL in early June with a rotator cuff strain. He’s been making some progress in his rehab and Kansas City will be activating him off the IL to make the start on Wednesday. I’d expect his pitch count to be capped somewhere around 70-80 pitches since he’s only reached 56 pitches in his rehab outings.
From a previous series preview:
Michael Lorenzen one-ups Wacha with a seven-pitch mix. The changeup is still the standout but Wacha’s excellent command allows his arsenal to play up a bit more. Lorenzen’s command tool isn’t as good and so he’s liable to struggle through prolonged ups and downs as his feel comes and goes. Last year, Lorenzen managed to field an ERA more than a run and a half lower than his FIP thanks to some impressive contact suppression. His BABIP has increased by 81 points this year and his ERA has shot up to 4.95. He has cut his walk rate by almost five points, but his entire approach is so contact oriented, that all those extra hits are sabotaging any progress he’s made on the command front.
The Big Picture:
While the M’s try to take care of business in Kansas City, the Astros and Rangers will duke it out in Houston this week. The ‘Stros started that series off with a 6-3 victory but the win was overshadowed by Yordan Alvarez’s ankle injury. He had only just returned from a long stint on the IL with a hand injury and now it looks like he’ll be sidelined for the most important stretch of Houston’s season. If the AL West crown is Seattle’s priority, a pair of Rangers wins would be the ideal outcome for the rest of that series.
Looking elsewhere, the Guardians begin a series against the Tigers in Detroit this afternoon while Boston starts a series against the Athletics at home. The Yankees started their series against the Twins with a 7-0 loss yesterday.
