Hello, friends.
Here we are. Today is MLB’s trade deadline for the 2026 season. The deadline is at 6pm, which does not mean that at 6:01 you can consider everything settled. It’s not unheard of for moves that get made in the final minutes to only have news trickle out after the deadline has passed. I have a feeling that Mike Elias is going to take this thing down to the end and listen for a deal he likes. If he likes one, then he’ll make a trade. Whether you or I think it’s the right direction doesn’t
matter.
In their final game before the deadline, the Orioles ended up giving themselves a final shove towards the selling path. Check out John Beers’s recap of the game for more of the not-so-lovely totals of the game.
The rain-delayed and ultimately rain-shortened 8-0 loss to the Phillies highlighted deficiencies in the bullpen and the lineup that are way beyond anything that can be solved with trade deadline activity. The roster that has been assembled at great cost in money and prospects is not good enough. I continue to believe that Elias should lose his job for this at season’s end. There is no way to know whether David Rubenstein is inclined in this direction or what would have to happen for him to feel that way.
The wild card math makes it tough to pull the plug on the season. Even after yesterday’s loss and though they sit at 54-58, the team is only 2.5 games out of a spot, and they only have three teams to pass. It’s not insurmountable. Even so, the track record of Elias is that he’s going to trade away guys who are either heading to free agency after this season or at as high of a value as they are ever going to have. The 2022 team was also only 2.5 games out of a spot and Elias traded Trey Mancini and Jorge López. I still think it’s a shame he didn’t just let it ride and see what happened.
The franchise is in a different place now, though. That was a team on the way up, as the next two seasons demonstrated. This is a team that should still be up but is now in the second year on the way back down. It’s urgent to arrest the decline. Or, it’s time to accept the decline and break up the core that couldn’t do it. If Elias follows that logic, maybe a trade of Adley Rutschman even while he’s on the injured list is possible. He hasn’t acted like he wants to do that, but, he often says a lot of stuff that doesn’t bear any resemblance to the way he subsequently acts.
A lot of trade deadline speculation has revolved around whether the Orioles might pursue a “buy and sell” kind of path. They sell their “gone after 2026” assets – Trevor Rogers and Taylor Ward – and acquire pieces who might help in 2027 and maybe even beyond. In the process, perhaps they can deplete some of the glut of minor league prospects who are about to be Rule 5 Draft eligible and maybe don’t have spots waiting for them on the 40-man roster.
If the Orioles end up replacing Ward in the lineup with a better defender who is at least a decent hitter, you could even argue that’s an upgrade for the team. Trading away Rogers, it’s less likely to find an upgrade there. I have no idea how they’re going to approach it. I’ll be surprised if Rutschman is traded. Elias has surprised me before. I mostly don’t like his surprises. At this point, I mostly don’t like him in general.
Orioles stuff you might have missed
Evaluating Mike Elias’s seven deadlines as general manager (The Baltimore Sun)
There are really fewer unambiguous success stories here at this point than I would like.
Trade buzz nothing new for Ward as deadline closes in (Orioles.com)
Ward is the one guy who I do not expect to be an Oriole still at this time tomorrow, more than any other guy.
Birthdays and Orioles anniversaries
There are a few former Orioles who were born on this day. They are: 2022 infielder Jonathan Araúz, 2011-12 slugger Mark Reynolds, and 1961 reliever Dick Hyde.
Is today your birthday? Happy birthday to you! Your birthday buddies for today include: World War II journalist Ernie Pyle (1900), singer Tony Bennett (1926), businesswoman Martha Stewart (1941), Metallica vocalist James Hetfield (1963), and actress Evangeline Lilly (1979).
On this day in history…
In 1347, the French city of Calais surrendered to the English after having been under siege since the previous September. England controlled this city until 1558.
In 1900, Firestone Tire and Rubber Company was founded. Though founded in Akron, Ohio, the company is headquartered in Nashville today.
In 1914, the conflict we now know as World War I escalated further as Germany declared war on France.
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And that’s the way it is in Birdland on August 3. Have a safe Monday.
