The Dallas Mavericks entered Sunday’s NBA Draft Lottery with the primary objective of moving up in the draft order for the second straight year. Their secondary objective was to at least not fall in the order. Neither objective was accomplished, as Dallas slid one spot and will be picking 9th in the Draft this June.
Throughout the season, there were instances that frustrated fans who were fully on board with the effort to tank for a better draft pick. Late in the season, aside from Cooper Flagg’s
Rookie of the Year campaign, the best thing the Mavs could play for was a better draft pick.
Two primary reasons are cited for hurting the Mavs most. While accurate, there is an alternative perspective on both grievances being filed, and we’ll take a look at them here.
Specific unnecessary wins doomed the odds
A select few games continue to come up in the public lexicon as those which particularly hurt the Mavs’ chances at a better outcome in the Draft Lottery. April 5 against the Los Angeles Lakers, March 12 against the Memphis Grizzlies (more on them below) and game 82 against the Chicago Bulls.
The Lakers game came at a time the Mavericks were playing out the season and the Lakers were playing to keep hold of a top seed. Dallas took the victory in a game where both Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves sat out. Less than a month prior, Khris Middleton went out of his mind scoring 35 points on 8-for-10 three-point shooting in a win over the Grizzlies, with whom the Mavs were neck-and-neck with through the final stretch of the season. The Bulls game was the object lesson of who wanted to tank more. A Bulls loss would prevent them from tying the Milwaukee Bucks, while a Mavs loss would prevent them from tying the New Orleans Pelicans. Dallas ended up tied, then lost a coin flip with the Pelicans. The Bulls jumped to #4 in the Draft Lottery.
These were three (admittedly glaring) games across 26 total wins. They didn’t count more than any other win, yet we are more annoyed by them than we are about two wins against the Denver Nuggets in December, an overtime win against the 60-win Detroit Pistons, and a late-season win over the Cleveland Cavaliers in Cleveland. Recency bias at its finest. That doesn’t mean early-season wins didn’t equally hurt the Mavs’ draft standing. We also often fail to think of the favorable losses (if there really is such a thing). For example, Dallas lost to the Pelicans in three of their four matchups, yet still tied them when all was said and done.
In reality, these worst-offending games are no worse than any other. They just happen to be recent or ironic enough (Middleton going All-NBA for a night?) to anger us more.
The Mavs could have moved up to #3 instead of Memphis had they ended the season tied
The Mavericks ended the season with a 26-56 record. The Grizzlies ended at 25-57. Memphis subsequently moved from their slot at #6, all the way up to #3. The #6 slot was very attainable for Dallas had they lost even a single game more, frustrating fans who feel Dallas could easily be sitting with the #3 pick next month had they simply been in the spot Memphis held coming into Sunday’s Lottery. I would contend that is not exactly the case.
Had Dallas lost one more game, they would have been in a tie with Memphis. This would have required a coin flip for the #6 slot, which they may or may not have won. Even assuming they had won, that doesn’t necessarily mean it would be them sitting at #3 right now. In other words, it wasn’t necessarily the #6 slot that moved up, but rather, it was the Grizzlies that moved up.
In the Draft Lottery, each team is designated a certain number of four-number combinations. If one of those four-number combinations is pulled, it’s that team’s lucky day. One of Memphis’ four-number combinations was pulled third, and that was that. Had Dallas been slotted in the #6 spot, it still would have been Memphis’ four-number combination that was pulled. There remains an argument that had Memphis been slotted lower than Dallas, they would have had fewer combinations and one of those combinations they didn’t have could have been the one that pulled them up to #3. Still, had they not had that magic combination, it doesn’t mean that Dallas would have had it – it could have been any other team as well.
Closing arguments
To be clear, I’m not intending to tell anyone how to think. This is as much an exercise in catharsis for me as it is (hopefully) a perspective-helper for anyone reading. I was massively disappointed to see the Mavericks name called early. It was like a game of Russian Roulette on each envelope.
Candidly, I feel like somehow Middleton should have sat a few more minutes on that turn-back-the-clock night. Maybe a couple of our better players happen to sit out the Laker game for load management. Ultimately, we can probably say something similar about any given night.
As it stands, the Mavericks still have a very good pick. On top of that, we have absolutely no idea what will transpire before the Draft, or on Draft night. Dallas could package #9, #30 and a player(s) to move up (or back). For now, we’ll just have to trust the new regime to steer things the right way.
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