When the No. 9 Texas Longhorns and the Florida Gators are scheduled to kick off at The Swamp on Saturday at 2:30 p.m. Central on ESPN, there’s a 60-percent chance of thunderstorms in the Gainesville area,
according to the Weather Channel.
With those thunderstorms forecast to continue for several hours, there’s a chance that the game could be delayed or otherwise impacted by rain, creating conditions impacting ball security, the downfield passing game, and footing on the Bermuda grass at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium.
Drizzle during the matchup between Texas and San Jose State in the home opener for the Longhorns this season played a minor role in the game, but thunderstorms this weekend would cause significant alterations in how each head coach approaches their respective offensive game plans.
Head coach Steve Sarkisian’s team is prepared because they regularly practice with slick footballs.
“We always practice with wet balls every week. We don’t wait for the week of. Our quarterbacks and running backs work wet ball exchanges with the centers every week. Our receivers will catch wet balls at a minimum once a week,” Sarkisian said on Thursday.
Preparation is only one aspect — Sarkisian would like to force Florida out of the two-deep shell preferred by defensive coordinator Ron Roberts in an effort to practice explosive passing plays down the field, an area where redshirt sophomore quarterback Arch Manning excelled last year prior to a potential breakout performance on shot plays in the pre-bye week win over Sam Houston.
But if there is heavy precipitation in Gainesville on Saturday, attempting those deep balls will be more difficult, which could force Texas to lean on a running game that performed well on the road in the season-opening loss to Ohio State before experiencing growing pains as a result of injuries at the running back position and inconsistent execution from an offensive line that replaced four starters from last year’s group.
Redshirt sophomore running back CJ Baxter (hamstring) is currently listed as doubtful on the first SEC-mandated injury report on Wednesday evening. The status of junior running back Quintrevion Wisner is slightly more positive — the conference’s only returning 1,000-yard rusher is listed as questionable after missing the last three games, although the hope is certainly that Wisner will trend towards being available as game time approaches.
From a pure numbers perspective, evaluating the Texas running game through non-conference play is complicated by the competition level — the Horns ran for 264 yards and four touchdowns against the Bearkats on 6.4 yards per carry, but Sam Houston also didn’t utilize the same disruptive line games as San Jose State and UTEP did in holding Texas to less optimal outcomes on the ground.
At issue is the lack of explosiveness from the Longhorns — the running backs don’t have a run longer than 18 yards this season as redshirt senior backup quarterback Matthew Caldwell recorded the season’s longest run of 50 yards in garbage time against Sam Houston. The second-longest run, a 32-yard effort by sophomore wide receiver Ryan Wingo, also came in the blowout win over the Bearkats.
Sarkisian has confidence in his team because they’ve found different ways to win over the last several years, including during the 11-game road winning streak busted by the Buckeyes in the season opener.
“We’ve created a very versatile team where we feel like we can go in whatever direction is needed to try to win the game. I think that that’s something that sometimes you have to learn a little bit when you start to get into the playoffs, when the really good teams start butting heads, and if the really good defenses are playing like really good defenses, , are you comfortable winning a game, a one-score game that’s got a little bit maybe more of an NFL feel to it that’s going to come down to one possession?” Sarkisian said.
“I think that’s something that we’ve worked hard on — putting our players in very stressful situations is something we actually worked on at the end of practice today, of what that would feel like, and making sure on both sides of the ball we were equipped to handle a situation like that if it came up. So we spent a lot of time on it. We think we’ve built a team that can handle that and if that’s what this game calls for, we’ll be ready to do that as well.”
Against a higher level of competition, the Gators are averaging less than three yards per carry over the last two games and only managed 4.3 yards per carry without a rushing touchdown in the loss to Bulls. Of the 492 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns for Florida, 200 yards and a touchdown came in its season-opening win over Long Island.
Despite the limited success for the Gators on the ground so far this year, Longhorns redshirt senior safety Michael Taaffe has a healthy level of respect for sophomore Jaden Baugh, a 6’1, 231-pounder, and senior Ja’Kobi Jackson, out with injury on Saturday
“Their two running backs are elite running backs, true SEC power running backs, with elite jump cuts, great vision, great contact balance,” Taaffe said on Monday.
As with the Texas running game, evaluating the run defense is impacted by the poor competition level as San Jose State averaged 2.9 yards per carry, UTEP gained 2.2 yards per attempt, and Sam Houston only managed a little more than a yard on 26 total carries.
Most heartening? Holding Ohio State to 2.3 yards per carry on the road.
The amount of depth and talent in the front six for the Longhorns is enough that the Texas defense should have an advantage over Florida on Saturday even in a worst-case weather scenario. If that holds, playing complementary football on offense would secure the win.
