The 2026 NFL Draft is fast approaching. The Scouting Combine starts on February 23, and the draft will be held on April 23-25 in Pittsburgh. All eyes will be on the first round, as the New Orleans Saints hold the #8 pick in the draft and have plenty of flexibility after having a successful draft in 2025. They say it is better to build through the draft compared to free agency. “Built not bought” is an often-parroted phrase to malign teams who simply acquire talent by being the highest bidder compared to those
who put in the work on draft day. The Saints have been forced to build this way for much of their recent history, as constantly being on the edge of the salary cap has limited their ability to sign big free agents in recent memory. In order to keep this going they will have to hit on their late round picks this year, something that, despite the overall success of the draft class, they did not do last year. They have two picks in the 5th round and one in the 6th and may acquire more during the draft if they decide to trade up or down. Prospects of course should be judged on a case-by-case basis, but analyzing the recent trends and the success rates of each position drafted over the last few years should show us which positions are more likely to hit in the later rounds compared to the others.
Analyzing the last seven drafts
For this study I charted every pick in the 5th, 6th and 7th rounds of the drafts going back to 2019, and used the stat of weighted career approximate value (wAV) to get a generalized look at the value of each player selected. For standardization I converted this to wAV per year to account for players who may not have as many years played as others. For a frame of reference, the average wAV per year of a player drafted in the first round is 5.257. Since 2019 only 28 of the 824 players drafted in the 5th round or later have achieved a wAV per year over 5.0 which is just 3%. When expanding to players with a wAV per year over 3.0 however, the number rises to 112 out of 824 or 14%. The average wAV per year of Pro Bowlers drafted in the first round is 7.251, and the average wAV per year of All-Pros drafted in the first round is 8.151. Since 2019, only five players drafted in round 5 or later have a wAV per year greater than 7.250, which calculates to just 0.6%.
Positions to target late in the draft
The position that has produced the most players at 3.0 wAV per year or better is wide receiver with 18, while second is linebacker with 17 and third is cornerback with 14. If you break this down by percentage however, WR and LB still remain the top two with 19% of players drafted in the 5th round or later since 2019 having a wAV per year of 3.0 or better. Cornerback however, being the most abundant position drafted in these rounds, comes out to just 13%, which is seventh highest, beating only quarterbacks (11%), offensive tackles (10%), centers (9%), defensive ends (7%), and tight ends (3%).
Linebacker
An example of a solid linebacker drafted in this range would be someone like Malcolm Rodriguez of the Detroit Lions or Dre Greenlaw of the San Francisco 49ers, while the best linebacker drafted in this range is Andrew Van Ginkel of the Vikings, who has a wAV per year of 6.429. For comparison the best 1st round LBs drafted since 2019 have been Micah Parsons (14.000), Patrick Queen (9.400), and Will Anderson (9.000) while the best of the 5th-7th rounds compares to first rounders like Jack Campbell (6.500) or Jordyn Brooks (6.000).
Wide Receiver
An example of a 5th-7th round wide receiver with a wAV per year greater than 3.0 would be Parker Washington of the Jacksonville Jaguars or the Saints own Devaughn Vele, while the highest rated WR in this range is of course Puka Nacua, with a wAV per year of 13.000, which is the highest among all players drafted in the 5th round or later since 2019. Nacua even beats out the best 1st round receivers of Ja’Marr Chase (12.000) and Justin Jefferson (11.400), while Vele compares to 1st round receivers such as Jahan Dotson (3.667) and Ricky Pearsall (3.000).
Positions to avoid late in the draft
The positions least likely to hit are by far defensive end and tight end. 76 defensive ends have been drafted in rounds 5-7 in the last seven drafts and only five have a wAV per year over 3.0, with the Broncos’ Jonathon Cooper being really the only above average player. Among tight ends, Oronde Gadsden II is the only one of the 40 TEs selected in our range with a wAV per year over 3.0 after turning in a solid rookie season for the Chargers. For comparison the next best tight end drafted in this range was Noah Gray of the Chiefs, who in five seasons has been a decent backup but never a consistent part of the offense in Kansas City. Pass rusher and TE are two positions of need for the Saints, but if they want to fill them, they should look to do so before day 3 of the draft.
The below bar graph shows the amount of players drafted in our range who have a wAV per year over 3.0 compared to the total number of players drafted at that position:
Needs the Saints should fill late in the draft
The Saints will be more likely to fill their need at wide receiver or linebacker in the late rounds of the draft and would be diligent to try and find a pass rusher before the end of day 2. Some good news for the Saints is the position that has the third highest percentage of players with a wAV per year greater than 3.0 is offensive guard. Despite only 8 total guards having greater than a 3.0 wAV per year, this still accounts for 18% of the guards drafted in this range due to only 45 total being selected. Guard is a big need for the Saints, and if they miss out on one early they have a decent chance of finding a quality one on day 3 if they can identify one that they like.
Comparing the quality of players drafted in the 5th, 6th and 7th rounds
When comparing the 5th, 6th and 7th rounds to each other, there of course is a drop off among most positions as you get later into the draft, but some positions do hold quality throughout the late rounds. The smallest difference between 5th and 6th rounds players is among offensive guards, who actually on average have been better in the 6th round compared to the 5th round. The next smallest difference is between safeties, who only have a drop off of 0.076 wAV per year going from the 5th round to the 6th. If the Saints are wanting to reach for either of these positions in the 5th round it may be prudent to wait and draft another position, as the difference between a 5th round guard or safety and a 6th round guard or safety is almost miniscule. Quarterbacks do have a higher wAV per year among 7th rounders than both 5th and 6th rounders, but this is heavily skewed by Brock Purdy and his 11.000 wAV per year, which is second highest in this range to Puka Nacua. The Saints don’t need a QB as they have found their QB of the future in Tyler Shough, and even their backup Spencer Rattler ranks 4th among QBs in this range with a wAV per year of 3.000 which trails on Purdy, Gardner Minshew, and Sam Howell.
Which positions drop off the most as you get deeper into the draft
The largest difference as you go later in the draft is among running backs, as the average 5th round running back has a wAV per year of 2.061 and the average 6th round RB has a wAV per year of just 0.912. If the Saints are looking for running back depth they should draft one before the 6th round, as the odds of finding a difference maker in the 6th or 7th rounds and very low. The only position with a wAV per year above 1.0 across the 5th, 6th and 7th rounds is linebacker, with 7th round linebackers having the second highest wAV per year in that round with a 1.197 (the highest wAV per year in the 7th round is quarterback which again is skewed heavily because of Brock Purdy). Wide receivers also drop off heavily as you move further in the draft, with 5th rounders having a wAV per year of 2.035, 6th rounders having a wAV per year of 1.503, and 7th rounders plummeting to a wAV per year of 0.612. I don’t see 5th round WRs being skewed as much by Nacua as 7th round QBs by Purdy however, as five of the seven highest rated WRs in this range were drafted in the 5th round, all of whom had a wAV per year greater than 4.0. If the Saints are looking for a WR to pair with Chris Olave they should look to do so before the end of the 5th round.
The below bar graph shows the difference in wAV per year between 5th, 6th, and 7th round players at each respective position:
Schools that produce the most late round gems
When it comes to the school that produces the best players in the 5th-7th rounds, the only schools that have produced more than four players with a wAV per year greater than 3.0 are Arkansas, Michigan, and Texas A&M. Michigan leads the way with five such players, but they are also tied with Georgia for the most players selected in this range with 25, so their percentage is actually lower than the Aggies and Razorbacks. Texas A&M has four but none of them have a wAV per year above a 3.667. Arkansas also has four including three players with a wAV per year over 4.429. The Razorbacks are as close to a sure thing as can be found in rounds 5-7, as all but one of their eight players selected have a wAV per year greater than 1.750.
Looking for gems among the group of 6 is not as successful as you might think in the late rounds either, as players drafted out of a non-power 4 school have an average wAV per year of 1.031 compared to an average wAV per year of 1.287 among those from a power 4 school. Boise State is the only group of 6 school that has produced above the average power 4 school, with an average wAV per year of 1.688, which is even better than powers such as Ohio State, Alabama, and Georgia. Among the best players taken from the group of 6 are Boise State’s Khalil Shakir, UTSA’s Riq Woolen, Tulane’s Darnell Mooney, and Fresno State’s DaRon Bland.
What a Saints draft based on this data could look like
The Saints biggest needs in the 2026 NFL Draft are pass rusher, guard, wide receiver, and cornerback. Two of these positions are ones you want to avoid in the late rounds, as defensive ends and corners taken on day 3 of the draft rarely hit, while late round wide receivers and guards have a decent chance at producing at an average level. The Saints should look to draft a pass rusher or corner with one of their first three picks, as these positions drop off in quality significantly more than other positions as you get deeper into the draft.
The Saints will probably have their pick of the cornerbacks available in this year’s draft, as most mock drafts we have seen so far do not include one going in the top 7. If they have the opportunity to draft the first CB in the draft they may want to take it, as our research before the draft last season showed that the first CB taken in the last 26 drafts was an above average starter 56% of the time, while the second and third CBs taken each year were above average starters just 29% and 25% of the time respectively. With the Saints possibly losing Alontae Taylor to free agency this year, they would be left with just Kool-Aid McKinstry, Quincy Riley, and Rejzhon Wright as their top corners going into next year. It is hardly groundbreaking to say they have the best chance at hitting if they can select from all possible CBs available in this draft, but given the large drop-off between CB1 and CB2, and the lack of quality options at the position found in the later rounds, the Saints only chance to draft a solid CB will probably be at or around #8 overall if they elect to trade down slightly.
Defensive end is a little trickier, as the Saints may be facing a scenario where two pass rushers have been taken before their pick at #8. The drop off among pass rushers is not as significant as it is among corners however, as 42% of the third DEs taken since 2009 have become above average starters, and the percentage of above average starters remains above 33% going all the way back to the DE7 in a particular first round.
Here is what a Saints mock draft using these metrics may look like:
Trading down to #10 and still being able to take the first overall CB would be a massive win if the Saints choose to go the route of improving their secondary. Pass rusher should be the next position taken followed by another defensive lineman, as the chances of finding a quality player at these positions drop-off more significantly than most others as you get later into the draft. After this they should seek to fill the holes at the positions we have discussed, such as running back, guard, wide receiver and linebacker, and there should be plenty of solid options available on day 3 of the draft. This isn’t to say they shouldn’t draft any of these positions before day 3, especially if they identify someone like Jeremiyah Love as a future superstar or if someone like Arvell Reese or Carnell Tate happens to fall to them.
The Saints are in the enviable situation of having a good amount of flexibility in this year’s draft, as they have needs to fill across the board but nothing that is so desperate you would consider reaching for someone just because they fill a dire need. Because of this they can afford to pick the best player available with each of their picks, and have the freedom to simply bolster the core of their roster rather than trying to remake it entirely. This draft could be one of the most important in team history, as they have the foundation to build themselves into a contender again, but now need to find the right pieces.
