LOUISVILLE CARDINALS (6-3, 5-2) at NORTH CAROLINA TAR HEELS (5-4, 2-3)
Game Time: 7 p.m.
Location: Kenan Stadium: Chapel Hill, N.C.
Television: ESPN2
Announcers: Mike Couzens (play-by-play), Tom Luginbill (analyst), and Lauren Sisler (sidelines)
Favorite: Louisville by 3.5
All-Time Series: Louisville leads, 5-3
Last Meeting: Louisville won 47-35 on Sept. 9, 2017 in Chapel Hill
Series History:
Statistics:
Depth Chart:
Not available.
Injury Report:
Louisville Uniforms:
North Carolina Uniforms:
Chapel Hill Game Day Guide:
Relevant Videos:
About North Carolina:
via Keith Wynne
OFFENSE
Bill
Belichick had a poor start to his tenure at UNC last year, with the main issues being on the offensive side of the ball. He remedied that issue this year by going out and hiring none other than Bobby Petrino to be his offensive coordinator. Petrino had been bouncing around at a few spots since being fired by Louisville, but his offensive acumen is still coveted. The Tar Heels have improved on offense, though they still rank toward the bottom of the rankings in some key offensive metrics.
As always, an offense is only as good as its quarterback, and the Tar Heels are average with Billy Edwards under center. The veteran transfer quarterback has played about as well as most expected him to this season. His inconsistent play has been an issue for this offense, and it has contributed to a couple of the losses this year.
As the season has gone on, he has played better, with his last two games being his best. He torched Miami’s defense for four touchdowns while completing 82% of his passes. He came back the following weekend to complete 76% of his passes against a solid UConn team. Edwards isn’t one of the top quarterbacks Louisville has seen this season, but he has played like one recently.
UNC has three running backs that they can rely on, and they play all three of them. Demon June leads the group in touchdowns with 8 on the season. Benjamin Hall leads the group in yards and yards per carry. Jaylin Mcgill leads the group in yards per play as he is a factor as a receiver out of the backfield. They are all over 220 pounds, and Petrino has done a good job of utilizing them this season. The staff likes to ride the hot hand with this group, so we will have to wait to see which player gets the most touches.
Louisville will face another opponent that has a single key player at the wide receiver position this weekend. Jordan Shipp is one of the more talented players the Cards will face this year, and they will need to have a plan. Shipp has good size at 6-2/200, and he can really move. He is a fluid athlete with good body control which he uses to make contested catches and catches in tight spots. He is not a burner in the open field, but he has plenty of speed to score on a long play if he gets open.
The biggest threat on this offense is at tight end in Jelani Thurman. Lincoln Keinholz’ former teammate at Ohio State has had a similar situation as he did not make much of an impact for the Buckeyes, but he has emerged as one of the best tight ends in the country for UNC. He has already set the school record for touchdowns by a tight end with 8, which is the most in the country among tight ends. He also ranks in the top five in just about every receiving category when it comes to tight ends.
This team doesn’t create a lot of big passing plays, but when they do it is down the middle of the field to Thurman, or because he pulls defenders with him. Petrino is known for working deep over routes throughout his career, but this team has killed teams down the seams. Louisville’s defense has been victimized many times on seam routes this year, so they will need to adjust their plan from their normal reliance on Cover 3.
The UNC offensive line has been pretty average this year, especially from a run blocking standpoint. They don’t allow a lot of penetration, but they haven’t been opening massive holes for the running backs, either. Where they have struggled is being consistent in pass protection. Billy Edwards is just a big better than being a statue in the pocket, so he is not one to avoid the rush if it gets to him. It has not helped that his line has struggled with speed rushers this year. The Cards should have an opportunity to get pressure this weekend.
DEFENSE
Defense is Bill Belichick’s forte, and the North Carolina Tar Heels are benefiting from his expertise this year. For the second straight year, Belichick has his defense ranked in the top 50 in yards per play. His group is being led by his son Brian after his son Steve left the team earlier this season. While the defense has taken a step back this year, they have played well enough to keep the Tar Heels in each game, and they’ve made big plays at big moments.
The most talented group on this team is the defensive line, with a couple of NFL prospects. Melkart Abou Jaoude is the returning ACC leader in sacks, while Jaylen Harvey has been a very good addition from Penn State with 21 pressures this season. The edges of this defense haven’t put up crazy numbers from a havoc standpoint, but they will be key players for this defense if Louisville continues to attack the edges of the defense.
The interior of the line is where this defense is at its best. Xavier Lewis is one of the best defensive tackles in the country. He is in the top five in pressures, tackles for loss, and sacks among his position group. The 6-0/260 tackle is extremely undersized, but he is very quick, and he uses his quickness to beat blocks to get into the backfield. He will be a key player in this game and will likely cause some issues for Louisville’s offensive line.
Isaiah Johnson and Leroy Jackson are the other top players on the interior of the defense. Jackson has 14 pressures on the season as the main backup for Lewis, but he and Johnson provide really good size on the inside as well. Johnson is big enough to demand a double team, which has been a factor in Lewis’ big season. He has been able to get one-on-one matchups often, and that has not gone well for offensive linemen.
UNC’s linebackers have benefited more than just about anyone from the strong play of the defensive line. Derek McDonald and Peyton Sheelmann are averaging 19 tackles a game between the two of them. Both players are ranked in the top 25 in tackles nationally, and they are constantly running free when you watch their games. Louisville has adapted their running game over the last few weeks, but they will likely have a hard time running the stretch zone runs that they really like. These two guys can run, and they will have a lot of space to get downhill to make tackles behind the line.
Jaiden Patterson leads a solid cornerback group that has played at an average level this season. UNC has given up a lot of yardage this season, but they are better when it comes to metrics like passer rating. The corners have had some issues against the top players they’ve seen this year. Umari Hatcher, Jordon Faison, Calvin Russell, and Bryant Wesco all stood out to me when I watched their games. Those receivers were able to get open and make big plays on the outside.
The biggest playmaker outside of the defensive linemen is Greg Smith at free safety. He leads the team with 3 interceptions this year, and he’s at his best as a deep safety playing center field. Smith can also come down into the box in run support or cover if needed. He’s having one of the best seasons in the ACC at safety. While this secondary isn’t great, they do have a couple of players who can make a play on the ball, which is not something I would say about the last few opponents for the Cards.
Motivational Tweets:
Not easy to find non-basketball tweets from the UNC crowd.
Excitement Level: 7.0
Give me an SMU win over Wake at noon and a Cards win in Chapel Hill, and the EL is probably back up to where we want it to be for next week’s home/conference finale against Pitt.
Game Attire: Red Script Louisville hoodie
I need to do laundry.
Pregame Meal: Taco Soup
Soup season is still going very strong at CC Headquarters.
Bold Prediction: Neither team leads by double figures at any point in this game
Dog fight brewin’.
Jeff Brohm Trick Play Alert Level: Fresh Air (Moderately above average)
I don’t believe for a second that Jeff and Brian don’t want to show Bobby something.
Predicted Star of the Game: Lincoln Kienholz
Carolina will sell out to stop the run, and they’ll do this despite having a suspect secondary. This feels like it needs to be a Linc game if it’s going to be a Cards win.
Notable:
—Despite Louisville being a member of the ACC since 2014, this will be just the second time U of L has faced North Carolina as a member of the conference. The Cardinals have not faced any other conference opponent fewer times than it’s faced the Tar Heels, and league newcomer Cal is the only other ACC opponent Louisville has played just once.
—North Carolina will celebrate both Homecoming and Military Appreciation Night on Saturday.
—NorthCarolina is in its 136th season of football (139th year) and the Tar Heels own an all-time record of 760-588-54.
—Louisville’s 44 points at Georgia Tech last week were its most on the road under Jeff Brohm and the most in any road game since a 62-22 throttling at Duke in 2021.
—Louisville’s offense enters the weekend ranked sixth nationally in points per game at 40.8.
—Louisville has scored at least 27 points in all nine of its games so far this season. Boise State is the only other FBS team to have accomplished that feat.
—North Carolina offensive coordinator Bobby Petrino did three stints on the Louisville coaching staff, including two as head coach. Petrino coached the Cards from 2003-06 and 2014-18, going 77-35 in nine seasons. Petrino is also the brother of U of L tight ends coach Paul Petrino.
—As the head coach at Louisville, Bobby Petrino was 3-0 in games against North Carolina.
—North Carolina’s defense is allowing opponents to convert on 44.1 percent of their third down tries, good for 121st in the country.
—Louisville’s pass defense is allowing 265.9 passing yards per game, good for 130th in the country.
—Louisville has won 11 conference road games under Jeff Brohm, tied for the most in the ACC during that time.
—UNC quarterbacks coach Matt Lombardi began his coaching career at Louisville working as a special teams quality control coach in 2014 before working with tight ends as a graduate assistant in 2015-16.
—North Carolina wide receivers coach Garrick McGee has twice previously worked at Louisville. McGee was the offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach in 2014-15 and then the wide receivers coach under Jeff Brohm from 2023-24.
—Louisville wide receivers coach Deion Branch played seven of his 11 NFL seasons with the New England Patriots for current UNC head coach Bill Belichick. Branch was part of two Super Bowl winning teams in New England, including earning Super Bowl XXXIX MVP honors.
—Louisville defensive end Tyler Thompson played the first three years of his collegiate career for the
Tar Heels. Thompson played in 25 games for UNC and had a breakout 2025 season in which he ranked eighth in the ACC with 7.0 sacks.
—Louisville defensive back Tayon Holloway started his collegiate career at North Carolina, playing two seasons in Chapel Hill. Holloway made six starts in 2023, finishing with 19 tackles and 1.5 TFLs.
—Louisville is 3-2 all-time against North Carolina in Chapel Hill.
—North Carolina has scored on its last 13 trips to the red zone, highlighted by 10 touchdowns. The Tar Heels lead the ACC and rank 10th nationally in red zone offense, converting on 93.9% of their attempts.
—North Carolina ranks fifth in the nation in fewest penalty yards (309) and fewest penalty yards per game (34.33), both of which lead the ACC.
—A win over Louisville would make North Carolina bowl eligible for the first time under head coach Bill Belichick.
—Louisville head coach Jeff Brohm will be facing North Carolina for the first time, and North Carolina head coach Bill Belichick will be facing Louisville for the first time.
—North Carolina wide receiver Jordan Shipp has reeled in a touchdown pass in four consecutive games, dating back to the Duke game. Tight end Jelani Thurman has caught multiple touchdown passes in back-to-back games.
—Louisville has been the most explosive offense in the country through the first nine games of the season. The Cardinals have already racked up 58 plays from scrimmage of 20 yards or more. Louisville ranks first or second in the country in plays from scrimmage of 20+, 30+, 40+, 50+ 60+, 80+ and 90+ yards.
—The Cardinals have already scored 13 touchdowns of 50 yards or more as well, with at least one in all eight games. Those 12 touchdowns have been scored by six different players – I. Brown, K. Brown, Kienholz, McCoy, Richardson and Skinner. Louisville is the only FBS school with 12 touchdowns of 50 or more.
—Louisville leads the country averaging 6.33 yards per carry and is second to only Army with 32 rushing touchdowns. Louisville’s current 228.0 yards per game average would be its highest total on the ground since 2017, Lamar Jackson’s final season.
—The Cardinals have 26 carries this season that have gone for at least 20 yards and are tied for the national lead in rushes of 60, 70, 80 and 90 yards.
—Louisville is looking for its first 5-game winning streak since a 7-game winning streak from the end of the 2024 season through the first four games of the 2025 campaign.
—Louisville is 2-1 in true road games so far this season.
—Louisville has had three or more rushing touchdowns in each of its last four games.
—Seven of Louisville last eight losses have come by three points or fewer. All three of U of L’s losses this season have come by exactly three points.
—Louisville has scored at least 24 points in 34 of its last 36 games.
—Louisville is 169-179-5 all-time in the month of November.
—Louisville is 9-5 in the month of November under head coach Jeff Brohm.
—Louisville is 7-11 all-time in games played on Nov. 14. The Cards’ most recent appearance on the date was a 20-19 home loss to Clemson last season.
—Under head coach Bill Belichick, North Carolina is 1-7 in home games against power conference opponents.
—Louisville has turned the ball over just eight times this season, tied for the 24th-best mark in the FBS.
—Louisville is 18-2 in ACC regular season games under Jeff Brohm when allowing fewer than 30 points.
—Louisville is 58-47 all-time in ACC games, and 21-10 in ACC games under Jeff Brohm.
—Louisville is one of only seven power conference programs to win at least nine games in each of the last three years.
—Louisville has won 50 consecutive games when shutting out its opponent in the second half.
—Under Jeff Brohm, Louisville is 19-2 in games in which it rushes for 200 yards or more.
—Louisville is one of eight FBS teams to score in every game it has played for the last 26 years, joining Boise State, Florida, Georgia, Nebraska, Southern California, Texas Christian, and Virginia Tech.
—Louisville is 16-1 under head coach Jeff Brohm when it doesn’t commit a turnover, with the lone loss coming earlier this season against Ole Miss.
—Louisville is 22-1 under Jeff Brohm when it wins the turnover battle and 12-14 when it doesn’t.
—Louisville is 26-3 over the past five seasons when shutting out its opponent in the first quarter.
—Louisville has won 40 of its last 45 games when holding teams to less than 300 yards of offense.
—Louisville has won 18 straight games when holding its opponent scoreless in the first half.
—Since 2019, Louisville is 41-5 when winning the turnover battle, and just 8-28 when losing it.
—Louisville is 30-3 under Jeff Brohm when allowing fewer than 30 points.
—Louisville is 216-17 all-time when scoring 35 or more points in a game.
—Louisville is 147-4 all-time when scoring 40 or more points in a game, including an 88-3 mark since 2000. The Cards are 6-124 all-time when allowing opponents to score 40 or more points.
—Louisville is currently riding a consecutive game scoring streak that spans 336 games dating back to a 31-0 loss to Florida State during the 2000 season. The streak ranks as the second longest in the ACC behind only Virginia Tech, and the 8th-longest nationally.
Quotable:
—”A ton of respect, obviously. (Bill Belichick) best coach in the NFL, fantastic career, and he loves ball – so he still wants to do it. Now he’s at a college level and getting to run his own program there. He’s got a lot of good coaches on his staff, wants to help those guys get to the next level. You can tell by the way they coach and the structure that they have that they’re very disciplined. They know what they’re doing.”
—“After a little bit of an up-and-down start, they’ve really come together the last month. It’ll be a big challenge for us.” —North Carolina head coach Bill Belichick
—“I’m thankful for my time with Coach Petrino Learned a lot under him. Great football coach, wants to win, a competitor, and helped me get into coaching. To be quite honest with you, did a great job here. He’s obviously doing a tremendous job on offense at North Carolina and in a spot he loves. Have a ton of respect there.”—Jeff Brohm
Card Chronicle Prediction: Louisville 37, North Carolina 33
