Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Featherweight contenders Lerone Murphy vs. Aaron Pico will collide this weekend (Sat., Aug. 16, 2025) at UFC 319 inside United Center in Chicago, Illinois.
Is it possible to be a dark horse contender while riding an eight-fight win streak? Murphy has beaten quite a few excellent fighters in recent years, but his decision-heavy style and relative inactivity has slowed his would-be rise. It’s getting harder and harder to deny “The Miracle,” however, and facing an exciting
newcomer should help garner more attention.
Pico has pretty much been raised since birth to be a fighting champion. An outstanding amateur wrestler with lots of elite international experience, Pico spent much of his youth boxing as well. In the cage, he’s a tremendous finisher with vicious power, and his only loss in his last 10 fights happened because of a dislocated shoulder.
Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:
Murphy vs. Pico Betting Odds
- Lerone Murphy victory: +205
- Lerone Murphy via TKO/KO/DQ: +650
- Lerone Murphy via submission: +2800
- Lerone Murphy via decision: +250
- Aaron Pico victory: -250
- Aaron Pico via TKO/KO/DQ: +330
- Aaron Pico via submission: +900
- Aaron Pico via decision: +140
- Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
How Murphy Wins
There are serious shades of Leon Edwards to Lerone Murphy’s game … and I say that in both a positive and negative way. He’s a really accurate and tricky range striker, able to force opponents into his preferred kind of kickboxing match. His wrestling is quite good offensively and defensively. Yet, when he does find an edge, it doesn’t always feel like Murphy takes full advantage.
Footwork and kicking ability are Murphy’s edge here. As he just did versus Josh Emmett, Murphy has to deny the pocket and keep his back off the fence. He’ll be playing the matador, trying to force Pico to continually reset and refuse him the chance to unload power punches.
Murphy has to be really effective with his linear strikes here. His usual game plan of stick-and-move applies, but that “stick” better be impactful. He’s not going to scare Pico off unless he really sits on his jabs, intercepting right hands, snap kicks, spin kicks, knees up the middle — something has to gain Pico’s respect. Otherwise, the hyper athletic Pico will surge forward and dictate where the fight takes place.
How Pico Wins
At age 28, Pico already has a wealth of world-class experience in competition. From wrestling to Pankration to boxing to his years in Bellator, Pico has been preparing for a run at the top for a lifetime, and he’s finally in a position to put it all together.
There’s a reason he’s been called the greatest prospect in MMA more than once.
I’d like to see Pico building on the success Emmett found against Murphy. They have similar strengths — punching power and wrestling — but Pico is a bit quicker on his feet. He should be able to find Murphy more often and create exchanges, which will help to get his wrestling going as well.
It’s really important that Pico finds some success with his takedowns. He has to put Murphy in a defensive position, give him a reason to hesitate in firing kicks. The more Pico can convince Murphy to withdraw into himself, the easier this fight will be. Ripping combinations is certainly one way to do that, but a big lift and slam will sway judges and limit Murphy’s activity effectively too.
We’ve see Pico neglect his wrestling to his own detriment previously. There’s no need to make this match up harder!
Murphy vs. Pico Prediction
I’m expecting a close fight here. Murphy is difficult to take down, and he’s the more polished striker. His evasive movement and commitment to staying in good position should take a significant portion of the sting of Pico’s big swings, so the early KO doesn’t feel very likely. Meanwhile, Pico has never beaten anyone particularly decent via decision, so this will be a real test of whether he can manage his aggression and output against a savvy fighter successfully.
Ultimately, Murphy is likely to win more of the fight, but Pico will have the bigger moments. In a five-rounder, that kind of attritional success would favor Murphy. In a 15-minute fight, that’s not the case. Pico only has to score a couple big takedowns or a knockdown to dramatically change the judges’ scorecards and erase minutes of Murphy success, which reads like a problem against a fighter content to win on thin margins.
Prediction: Pico via decision
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