I’ll start by saying this: writing these reviews is a LOT easier after a win. Last week, I had to bang out the Week 2 recap with America’s Team: The Gambler and His Cowboys playing in the background, perhaps
as a weird little psyche-up session before Week 3. Being a Dallas native, I also happened to swing by AT&T Stadium the Saturday before kickoff for the DFW Card Show. I got a chance to walk on the same field the Cowboys play on. (Don’t worry, I didn’t sneak out there; the expo was set up at the field level.) Not sure if any of that really matters, other than it all ties back to the Dallas Cowboys, the very same team your Chicago Bears just handled, 31–14, at Soldier Field. Caleb Williams delivered his best all-around performance yet: 19-of-29 for 298 yards, 4 touchdowns, 0 interceptions, a sparkling 142.6 passer rating, and maybe most importantly, 0 sacks for the first time in his career.
In what many are calling the best game of his young career, Williams vaulted into the top tier statistically: 9th in passer rating (107.7), 8th in Big Time Throw Rate (6.0%), 2nd in touchdown passes (7), 7th in deep-ball passing grade (92.8), 11th in overall passing grade (78.1), and 8th in Turnover-Worthy Play Rate (1.7%). (Stats courtesy of PFF.)
So let’s get into it—what made this start so special?
Side note for the analytics crowd: I stumbled across a new metric about a week ago called QBERT, created by Nate Silver. If you’re a baseball analytics nerd, think of it like a wRC+ for quarterbacks, with a WAR-style component baked in. Very cool stuff, worth checking out!
Benchmarks
(Season Averages in Italics)
C/A: 40/65 (61.5%) | 19/28 (67.9%)
Yards: 209.5 | 298
aDOT: 8.6 | 9.2
Touchdowns: 2 | 4
Turnovers: 0.5 | 0
QB at Fault Sacks: 1.5 | 0
Passer Rating: 89.2 | 142.6
True Passer Rating: 119.8 | 187.7
Time to Throw: 3.09s | 2.95s
Time to Pressure: 2.66s | 2.54s
Pressure Rate: 29.07% | 35.48%
On-Target Rate: 61.3% | 65.5%
Poor Play Rate / Big Play Rate: 18.0% PPR / 6.7% BPR | 5.7% PPR / 14.3% BRP
Game Notes
The full grading sheet for each play can be found here.
- Continuing to track Caleb’s on-target throws, there was a noticeable bump in Week 3. Up 4.2% from 61.3% in Week 2 to 65.5%. It’s a small but encouraging sign of improvement. That said, the misses that did happen weren’t subtle: two badly off-target balls to Colston Loveland and one underthrow to DJ Moore stood out the most.
- NFL Passer Rating / True Passer Rating / PFF Grade: 142.6 / 187.7 / 76.8
- By my charting, Caleb posted a 5.7% Poor Play Rate (turnover-worthy + poorly graded plays) against a 14.3% Big Play Rate (great + elite graded plays). That’s nearly a 13% drop in PPR compared to his season average, but also an 8% spike in BPR, a clear sign the splash plays outweighed the mistakes, and a trend in the right direction.
- From a timing perspective, his rhythm continues trending in the right direction. Per PFF, his time to throw was 3.10 seconds (down from 3.14 in Week 2). My personal charting had him at 2.95 seconds, down from 2.97 last week. That marks a steady three-week decline, showing progress in processing speed and decisiveness. His split was consistent: 2.95 seconds in the first half, 2.97 in the second.
- The pressure rate did climb, from 27.50% in Week 2 to 35.48% in Week 3, but for the first time in his career, Williams wasn’t sacked. That speaks to smarter decisions under duress: escaping immediately, checking down, or throwing it away. And against the blitz specifically, he’s thriving: 4 touchdowns and a 117.4 passer rating so far in 2025.
- Caleb spread the ball around fantastically in week 3, 8 different players hauling in throws from him, and 4 different players hit paydirt.
- The first half also featured three elite throws: both deep touchdowns (to Rome Odunze and Luther Burden III) and a 29-yard strike over the middle to Burden, which set up a Cole Kmet touchdown shortly after.
- Where he faltered slightly was in the intermediate range. He went just 4-for-10 there, after starting the year 8-for-11 (72.7%). That dip drops him to 12-for-21 (57.1%) on the season. Nothing alarming after three weeks, but worth keeping tabs on moving forward.
Play Reviews
The plays we’ll be reviewing are presented in the order they occurred in the game.
Analysis: We’ll start with a “Bad” throw. The Bears dialed up a simple Sail concept here, with DJ running the clear-out for Loveland underneath. And Swift being the check down if nothing is available from Odunze running the Dig at the bottom of the screen. It’s off play action, and Caleb gets a clean pocket to work with. He does hold the ball just a tick longer than ideal, but not enough to close the throwing window. The problem comes at the release, he just flat-out sails it. Loveland manages to get a hand on it, but that would’ve been an extremely tough grab to expect. Looking at the mechanics, Caleb does a little stutter step forward right before letting it go, and that may have caused the ball to sail. A missed opportunity to open the game on the right note.
Analysis: Back to the well with Colston Loveland on the ensuing drive. Another Sail concept, but this time it’s just a half-field read, a pretty straightforward high-to-low progression. Loveland fights through a bit of contact at the release, but Caleb puts the ball right on him after the break, hitting the window cleanly and giving Loveland room to turn upfield for some extra YAC. Credit also goes to the offensive line here: they built a rock-solid pocket, and it’s clear this group is starting to gel nicely.
Analysis: The first touchdown of the day felt like a callback to last week, when Caleb hit Odunze deep for 37 yards on a stop-and-go that fooled the defender. Here, I’m assuming both Odunze and Moore are running stop-and-go routes based on Moore’s release and route. It’s another high-low concept, starting low, but Odunze takes matters into his own hands. After Diggs tries to jam him and slips, Odunze breaks free and waves the mailbox flag. Caleb wastes no time, hitting him perfectly in stride for a 35-yard walk-in touchdown.
It was one of three deep-ball completions on the day, and the early strides Caleb’s making with the deep game in Ben Johnson’s offense have been a very welcome surprise.
Analysis: The second deep-ball touchdown came on back-to-back throws, and on a flea-flicker, no less! The whole play hinges on whether the deep safety bites on the run. Once again, it’s a high-low concept to read, if the play isn’t open deep you go to the Dig, if that’s not there you have Kmet underneath. Zaccheaus and Burden sell it perfectly, stuttering their releases as if they’re about to block downfield. The moment the safety loses his discipline, Burden hits the jets, and Caleb drops a dime over the top for six.
Per NFL Next Gen Stats, the ball traveled 62.1 yards in the air. Both the longest completion of the season by any quarterback and the longest of Caleb’s young career.
Analysis: Note: The result here is an incompletion to Colston Loveland.
If you haven’t noticed by now, Ben Johnson leans heavily on high-low concepts, and this play is no exception. At the top of the screen, Loveland and Rome run a Levels concept, with Kmet settling underneath on a stop route. I believe this one is meant to be read low-to-high, but Caleb bypasses Kmet and goes for the bigger chunk. The read is there, his mechanics look clean, but he just puts a little too much juice on the throw.
Once again, Loveland gets a hand on it, but it’s nowhere near a reasonably catchable ball. If Caleb floats this one a touch more instead of rifling it, Loveland probably comes down with it. Still, it’s encouraging to see Loveland getting involved in the offense, hopefully he and Caleb start connecting more consistently on these intermediate looks.
Analysis: My absolute favorite throw of the game. I even added a wide-angle shot at the end just to show how ridiculous it really was. This is another case of Caleb bypassing the safer option for a bigger chunk; and this time, it pays off.
On the play, DJ and Burden are both running overs, attacking the middle of the field (a recurring theme in this game and in Ben Johnson’s offense). I believe the read is designed low-to-high with DJ as the primary. Caleb could’ve taken the throw to DJ, but with a clean pocket and the arm talent to match, he instead layers a perfect ball over two defenders to the deep middle, hitting Burden square between the numbers. That placement allows Burden to immediately turn upfield for extra YAC.
We saw glimpses of throws like this last season, the kind that showcase Caleb’s rare arm strength and accuracy when he’s locked in. This one capped off an excellent drive and set up the 10-yard touchdown strike to Cole Kmet.
Analysis: I wanted to highlight this throw to showcase Caleb’s ability to operate cleanly within structure. This looks like a spacing/deep-levels split, with Zaccheaus and Rome working the deep routes and DJ as the primary underneath on the stick route. Caleb diagnoses the off coverage quickly and throws right off his hitch—releasing the ball while DJ still has his back to him.
The pass hits DJ square between the numbers for an easy 12-yard gain and a third-down conversion. On the surface, it’s a simple pitch-and-catch, but the anticipation and timing elevate it to an “Above Average” grade. If Caleb waits for DJ to turn before letting it go, this throw likely never connects.
Analysis: Last play, and one that perfectly showcases what makes Caleb Williams so special. Once again, it’s the Sail concept, a great fit when you’ve got a big-bodied receiver paired with someone who can drag coverage off the line and drag it deep. But the wrinkle here is that as soon as Caleb comes out of play action, he’s got pressure right in his face. Watching it live, I thought he was dead to rights. When he released the ball, I assumed he was just throwing it safely out of bounds over his receiver’s head.
Nope. Instead, Caleb flashes those ridiculous off-platform skills, muscling the ball to Rome Odunze on the out, and not just getting it there, but putting it right on target. That accuracy gave Rome the chance to turn upfield, convert the first down, and keep the drive going.
An incredible display of raw talent and a textbook example of why Caleb was the No. 1 overall pick.
Summary
His final scores of 1st Half (1.95) / 2nd Half (1.50) / Game (3.45) land him with an overall “Good” game grade. Out of the seven QBs I grade, he placed 1st in Week 3.
You can also check out scores of every QB I grade from week 1 and 2.
This was a great get right game for both the Bears offense and defense, they now travel to Las Vegas to take on a Raiders team who also find themselves at 1-2. This is the last week of Bears football before the early week 5 bye. What are your guys’ predictions for week 4? I’m hopeful for another promising step forward from the offense, especially against a Raiders defense that ranks 23rd against the pass.
Gary Baugher Jr. is a rookie contributor to WCG, bringing football insight backed by over 16 years of experience in organized football and more than 30 years as a passionate fan of the game. You can follow him on Twitter at @iamcogs.
