The Detroit Lions (6-2) and New England Patriots (5-4) are headed to Munich, Germany for a Week 10 battle between interconference opponents. Despite coming off a Super Bowl appearance in 2025, the Patriots’ season has been wildly inconsistent, looking unbeatable at times and completely vulnerable at others. While it’s impossible to know which Patriots team will show up on any given week, the Lions expect New England at their best in this matchup.
“Real good team here,” Lions coach Dan Campbell said
of the Patriots. “I know the record is not the true indication of what this team is. There’s a number of things that go into that. […] You look at the totality of what this team is capable of, the firepower they have, and they’re a good team. They’re dangerous. And they’re going to clean a lot of things up.”
Former Patriots quarterback and current color commentator Tom Brady covered the Patriots’ last game against the Packers—a 45-27 blowout—and he was less kind in his assessment of the Patriots:
“Half the season they played like this, and the other half of the season they haven’t turned the ball over, they haven’t exposed the defense, have played more physical on defense, but right now it’s just too inconsistent. Which team are they going to get? The team that is loose with the ball, is loose with decision-making, looking like they can be beaten by anybody. Or the team that takes care of the football, that makes the other team play left-handed, and can do what they want to do. Can they be a good team? They haven’t quite done that because good teams leave the smallest margin of error.”
Let’s take a closer look at the Patriots’ coaching staff, the scheme they run, and scouting notes from their most recently viewed games.
Patriots head coach: Mike Vrabel
Head coaching seasons: 8 seasons (Patriots 2025-present, Titans 2018-23)
Defensive coordinator: 1 season (Texans, 2017)
NFL coaching seasons: 13 seasons (Patriots, Browns, Titans, Texans)
NFL player seasons: 14 seasons (Chiefs, Patriots, Steelers)
Other coaching roles held: LB coach, DL coach, Consultant (Browns, 2024)
Influences: Bill Belichick, Romeo Crennel, Bill Cowher
Coached under: Crennel (DC), Bill O’Brien (HC)
Play caller: No
Dan Campbell on Patriots coach Mike Vrabel:
“I think Vrabel’s a hell of a coach”
Offensive coordinator: Josh McDaniels
NFL coaching seasons: 25th season (Patriots, Raiders, Rams, Broncos)
Head coaching seasons: 4 seasons (Raiders 2022-23, Broncos 2009-10)
Offensive coordinator seasons: 16 seasons (Patriots 2025-present, 2012-21, 2006-08, Rams 2011)
Previous coaching positions: QB coach, assistant
Influences: Bill Belichick, Charlie Weis, Nick Saban
Coached under: Belichick, Mike Vrabel, Steve Spagnuolo (Rams), Saban (Michigan State)
Offensive scheme
Passing game: Pro style
Running scheme: Downhill inside zone scheme
Scouting notes:
- 11 personnel is the primary set (60%)
- 12 personnel has seen an increase in recent seasons (24%)
- 13 personnel is less than 4%, despite rostering and playing four tight ends
- 21 personnel features both two-RB and RB+FB sets (8%)
- Scheme staples: shotgun (58%), pre-snap motion, RPO, rollouts, screens, adaptable game plans
- Play-action has been a staple in the past but has seen a reduction under QB Drake Maye
- Play-action rate: 20.4% (23rd in the NFL) — Maye’s EPA using play-action: -0.28 (37th)
- When the offense clicks, they can move the ball: 369.4 yards per game (8th), 6.0 yards per play (5th)
- Turnovers have been an issue all season: -1.2 turnover differential per game (31st)
- Interceptions have been a problem for Maye: 11 (tied for most in the NFL)
- 3 first-half INTs against the Packers: 1) communication; 2) threw into traffic; 3) telegraph
- 4th turnover vs. Packers: Fumble in the second half by RB Rhamondre Stevenson
- Injuries on the offensive line have led to problems in protection
- Pressures allowed: 141 (28th); pressure rate: 42.9% (31st); time to pressure: 2.78 seconds (29th)
- Sacks allowed: 20 (17th); rate: 6.6% (18th)
- Maye is very comfortable against the blitz: 0.03 EPA (14th); and pressure: -0.o4 (4th)
- Maye navigates the pocket very well and uses designed rollout to get better looks when pressured
- WR AJ Brown has been the top target (22% target share) when healthy, but he hasn’t been healthy most of the season and is currently injured
- Watch out for TE Hunter Henry, who only sees a 14% time share (4th on team) but has the second-highest total EPA amongst the skill players
- Run game is a priority but has underwhelmed
- Middle-of-the-road rankings in most statistical categories
- Success has come in yards after contact: 3.44 average YAftC (4th best)
- Rush inside on 58.6% of run plays, 4th most in the NFL
- Starting RB Rhamondre Stevenson is their best option, but he is dealing with an injury
- RB2 TreyVevon Henderson has underperformed and has already been declared out.
Dan Campbell on Patriots offense:
“Josh (McDaniels) and those guys have done a hell of a job. Drake (Maye) is, I mean, he’s as good as they come getting out of the pocket right now. I mean, he’s very, very dangerous. Buying time, these five-plus-second throws, he’s dangerous. And then the skill he’s got around him, (WR DeMario Douglas) three and (WR Kyle Williams) 18, and then they got (WR Mack) Hollins back now and (TE Hunter Henry) the tight end. So, it’s potent. It is very potent. We got our hands full.”
Defensive coordinator: Zak Kuhr
NFL coaching seasons: 7th season (Patriots, Giants, Titans)
Defensive coordinator seasons: 2nd season (interim in 2025)
Previous roles: Inside LB coach, defensive assistant, quality control
Influences: Mike Vrabel, Shane Bowen (Giants DC 2024)
Coached under: Vrabel, Bowen, Brian Daboll (Giants)
Lions coaching staff connections: Assistant HC Terrell Williams (former Lions DL coach)
Defensive scheme
Base: Balanced 34 hybrid (Belichick system)
Coverage: Cover-1 Man Free, Cover-2/3/4 Zone — off-cover corners/split-zone safeties
Scouting notes:
- Base 34: 21.5% usage
- Nickel 24: 77.7% usage — second-highest usage in the NFL
- Heavy blitz rate: 40.1% (6th) — hyper-aggressive in these situations
- Blitzes are mostly straight down the middle with a Cover-3 look in the secondary
- Non-blitz = stunts and twists get mixed in
- Pass rush is their best weapon right now
- Pressures: 120 (10th); rate: 37.3% (9th); time to pressure: 2.62 (13th)
- Sacks: 25 (9th); rate: 7.8% (5th)
- Pass rushers are athletic on the edge, and their interior defensive tackles can win one-on-one
- However, at their core, they have a “stop the run first” mentality
- Rush yards allowed per game: 96.7 (9th); per play: 3.9 (9th)
- Yards before contact: 0.57 (3rd); yards after contact: 3.31 (24th)
- Allow an explosive play on 12% of run plays (20th) — typically when teams attack the edges
- Teams run outside on Patriots 53.8% (10th highest rate)
- Man-Heavy secondary (36%), mainly Cover-1 Man Free — single-high with “Free” player used situationally
- Zone schemes are balanced: Cover-2 (22%), Cover-3 (23%), Cover-4 (19%)
- The secondary was supposed to be their strength, but they’re struggling, especially of late
- EPA per pass yards allowed for the season: 0.07 (26th)
- EPA per pass allowed over last four games: 0.35 (31st)
- Explosive passes allowed: 7.2% (30th)
- Lots of off-coverage and split-zone busted assignments against the Packers and Bears
Dan Campbell on Patriots defense:
“Defensively, they’re kind of a lot like us, man. They don’t want you to run the ball on them. They’re going to make sure that they stop the run. They are disruptive. They’re long. They got versatility at the D-line. Man, there’s a wave of guys. They got two or three deep waves of guys that are good football players across the board that they create havoc. And then here comes the pressure; here comes a lot of sticky man coverage, make you make accurate throws with people in your face and make contested catches.”
