The most recent episode of the Thinking Basketball podcast, hosted by Ben Taylor and Cody Houdek, featured a fascinating thought exercise: what would a draft lottery look like if we put the past three drafts into a single prospect pool?
It was an interesting conversation that involves weighing the relative merits of players about whom we have varying levels of knowledge. The 2026 draft has yet to play a single regular season game, so they have to be ranked among players who have played one or two
full seasons. In Bub Carrington’s case. “full seasons” is literal — he has yet to miss a game. All 82 both years.
I’m engaging in the exercise myself because their conversation was interesting, and it went directions and included and ordered players in ways I didn’t agree with. This is not to say they’re wrong, we’re picking based on who from this group will have the best careers, and reasonable minds can reach different conclusions.
For example, their top two was Dylan Harper and Caleb Wilson, which…I can’t get there. And I think both players are going to be really good. They Ajay Mitchell going tenth. I couldn’t get him in my top 15. Their full picks are below along with mine.
All that said, give their episode a listen — and then listen to some of their backlist and future episodes. It’s an engaging episode and a great show, and I learn a lot by listening to them.
Taylor and Houdek ended up selecting a top 10 — they’d planned 14 but punted the last four — I’m going the full lottery plus one, just for the heck of it. My consideration list runs 28 players deep — four from the 2026 draft, 13 from 2025, and 11 from 2024.
My draft of the drafts (comparing the relative merits of each draft class) goes 2026, then 2025, then 2024. The YODA evaluations of this year’s draft had four players with scores consistent with being the top overall pick in nearly any draft. In 2025, it was one. In 2024, it was zero. The top overall pick in 2024 — Zaccharie Risacher — had a second round grade in YODA and has already been traded.
For the top pick in this draft class, I have three candidates: AJ Dybantsa, Cooper Flagg, and Cameron Boozer. Those are the top picks in 2026 and 2025, and the third overall selection in 2025. In the “just missing the cut” group I have Darryn Peterson, Caleb Wilson, and Dylan Harper. While I think Harper is going to be terrific, I just can’t get him into that top group.
Choosing between the top three is about hair splitting. All three have great potential. I expect all three to be top-shelf NBA players over the next 10-15 years.
The Wizards chose Dybantsa first in a historically strong draft class because they believe in his athleticism, scoring, and overall ability. So do I.
Flagg went at the top in 2025 because he was clearly the best prospect in the draft and had virtually every marker of future success — strong NCAA production at a young age (he’s still the third youngest in the three combined draft classes), and good size and athletic tools.
Boozer had every statistical marker of becoming an elite NBA player — he was the most productive player in college basketball at age 18. He didn’t turn 19 until July. That kind of production from a collegiate player of any age is rare. At that age? It’s once in a generation kind of stuff. He “fell” in the draft because of questions about his size, athletic tools (he’s not blessed with quick feet or outstanding leaping ability) and perceived limitations on his ceiling.
When I evaluated Boozer, I thought the size questions were misplaced. He makes up for height with long arms, and his strength, craft, guile, and impact impressed.
So, who’s the top pick? While I was impressed with Flagg’s rookie season, and I think highly of Dybantsa and his future, I think Boozer is more likely to have the best career of the three.
For the second selection, I’m obviously choosing between Flagg and Dybantsa. My pick is Dybantsa because of the superior athletic tools.
At four, I’m considering four candidates. Peterson and Wilson from 2026, Harper from 2025, and Alex Sarr from 2024.
As previously mentioned, Peterson and Wilson each scored at the level of top overall picks in nearly any draft, according to YODA. Harper just completed a strong rookie regular season (92 PPA — average is 100 — 92 is a very good score for a teenage rookie), capped by outstanding performances in the NBA Finals. Sarr made a gargantuan leap in his second season, which included being one of the league’s busiest and most effective rim protectors.
This may be rank homerism, but my pick is Sarr. Based on watching every game he’s played the past two seasons, I think he has Defensive Player of the Year potential (especially in seasons when his countryman Victor Wembanyama doesn’t play 65 games) and has shown enough offensive chops to believe he can be a major contributor on that end, as well.
I’ll go Wilson, Harper, and Peterson with the next three picks — a modest preference for Wilson’s size and physical tools, and more hair splitting to choose Harper’s potential over the next decade ahead of Peterson’s.
That brings me to pick No. 8, and I think there’s a significant step down in quality. The top seven are all guys I can see appearing on All-NBA rosters and contending for major awards, including MVP. I see the next few more in that Bradley Beal type of level — potentially very good players who appear in multiple All-Star games, but are more fringe to All-NBA conversations. Like Beal or his backcourt buddy John Wall, third-team All-NBA, not first or second.
At this spot, I’m considering VJ Edgecombe and Kon Knueppel, and Stephon Castle from 2024. Once again, I like all three players. I had high evaluations on each in the draft. Castle was okay as a rookie made a Sarr-like leap in year two. The shooting is a question mark, but the defense, playmaking, and physical tools are outstanding. As a rookie, Knueppel’s shooting was already elite, and his movement shooting is plug-and-play on any good team. Edgecombe rated above average as a rookie last season (though behind Knueppel and Flagg).
So, my next three picks are: Castle, Knueppel, and Edgecombe, in that order.
As an aside, holy crap Spurs! In 2023, they drafted Victor Wembanyama. In 2024, they got Castle. In 2025, they chose Harper. That’s loading up!
At this point, I think there’s another step down in talent and potential. The next group are more likely to be high-quality role players who might make an All-Star game or two if everything breaks right, but I don’t think they’ll be competitive for all-league honors (except for maybe Sixth Man or perhaps All-Defense). That’s not to say they won’t be valuable — just that I don’t see “elite” in their futures.
That next group for me is Ace Bailey, Jeremiah Fears, Collin Murray-Boyles, Cedric Coward, Derek Queen, Ajay Mitchell, Matas Buzelis, and Tre Johnson. That’s eight guys for five spots. A few thoughts:
- Bailey is a skilled wing with good size and some shooting ability.
- Fears is a dynamic playmaker with great speed and not great size.
- Murray-Boyles is a potential defensive terror.
- Coward is a good shooter and solid all-around player.
- Queen is a skilled big man with below average athletic tools, defensive deficiencies, and a higher turnover rate than I’d like.
- Mitchell is a strong wings-and-guards defender with some shooting ability, though he’s 24 years old.
- Buzelis is long, athletic, and skilled.
- Johnson might be a great shooter in the mold of Klay Thompson, but hasn’t shown all-around production or defended well.
So, for picks 11-15, I’m going: Coward, Fears, Buzelis, Bailey, and Murray-Boyles.
Here’s final order:
The 2024-26 Re-Draft
- Cameron Boozer | F | Memphis Grizzlies — Thinking Basketball: Dylan Harper
- AJ Dybantsa | F | Washington Wizards — TB: Caleb Wilson
- Cooper Flagg | F | Dallas Mavericks — TB: Cooper Flagg
- Alex Sarr | C | Washington Wizards — TB: Cameron Boozer
- Caleb Wilson | F | Chicago Bulls — TB: Darryn Peterson
- Dylan Harper | G | San Antonio Spurs — TB: AJ Dybantsa
- Darryn Peterson | G | Utah Jazz — TB: Kon Knueppel
- Stephon Castle | G | San Antonio Spurs — TB: Stephon Castle
- Kon Knueppel | W | Charlotte Hornets — TB: VJ Edgecombe
- VJ Edgecombe | G | Philadelphia 76ers — TB: Ajay Mitchell
- Cedric Coward | W | Memphis Grizzlies
- Jeremiah Fears | G | New Orleans Pelicans
- Matas Buzelis | F | Chicago Bulls
- Ace Bailey | W | Utah Jazz
- Collin Murray-Boyles | F | Toronto Raptors
My biggest disagreement with the Thinking Basketball guys was Sarr — I had him fourth, they left him out of the top 10. Another big one: they picked Harper first overall, and I had him sixth.
My Honorable Mentions
- Derek Queen | C| New Orleans Pelicans
- Tre Johnson | G | Washington Wizards
- Ajay Mitchell | W | Oklahoma City Thunder
- Donovan Clingan | C | Portland Trail Blazers
- Kyshawn George | W | Washington Wizards
- Hugo Gonzalez | W | Boston Celtics
- Reed Sheppard | G | Houston Rockets
- Zach Edey | C | Memphis Grizzlies
What’s your top 15 from the past three drafts?
