“I wish people would really just stop talking about it”
-Jeff Brohm (Probably)
Ask any prognosticator or talking head around the Louisville Football sphere what they think this season will look like when it comes to wins and losses and this line, or a deviation of it, is bound to come up at some point in the dialogue “….and of course, we have to factor in the Jeff Brohm clunker”.
Ahh yes, the annual headscratcher, the perpetual enigma, the habitual conundrum. Call it what you will but a Jeff Brohm lead team for a handful
of seasons now always seems to drop a game that on paper makes absolutely zero sense. Now this is typically where the college football fanatic in me likes to point out that most teams not fighting for a national championship also do this every year, but lets not mix facts with emotion, and frankly around these parts we don’t care about those “other” teams. So what gives? How do we get past this frustration and clear our minds to a more positive outlook? One must look inward first to reveal where the issues originate from before trying to address them. Take a seat while I pull out my ongoing analysis of the situation…
While one could argue this issue goes back a bit further, my focus for the initial investigation was going to center on the last three seasons, two of which were here in Louisville, and one that takes us up the farm lined stretch of I-65 to West Lafayette, IN. There could also be some debate about what is considered a “clunker” but for me it’s game in which the Brohm lead team was not only favored, but often overwhelmingly favored to win. I settled on the following games for the past three years which seem to not only check the box, but fill that stinkin’ box up with anxiety driven scratches and scribbles.
The 2022 Season: Wisconsin
- Finished Big Ten play 4-5
- Finished Regular season 7-6 (bowl win)
- Wisconsin record at time of game, 3-4
The 2023 Season: Pittsburgh
- Finished ACC play 2-6
- Finished Regular season 3-9
- Pittsburgh record at time of game, 1-4
The 2024 Season: Stanford
- Finished ACC play 2-6
- Finished Regular season 3-9
- Stanford record at time of game, 2-7
So I picked up my pencil and a pad a paper and started looking over each of these games from a thirty thousand foot view. What was unique about each, why did they stand out among others on the schedule? Then I zoomed in a bit, and tried to see some of the specifics around their placement, where they fell in the season long test, if there were any consistencies across the years. Days, nights, nights, days….I didn’t sleep for a week, I lived on pretzel crumbs and warm water from a leaking faucet (I was suffering for the cause, stop asking questions). After several pages of notes, and a few rabbit holes on the internet about negative thought jars, I finally found the formula. The combination of factors which all resulted in a loss which simply should not have happened. The concoction which provides horrific results. And the blueprint certainly has some complexities.
BYE WEEKS
In all three games noted above, the Brohm squad was either coming off a bye week or heading into a bye week after. While important to note in overall equation, this alone is not the determining factor. There are plenty of games pre or post bye weeks the team over achieves or plays incredible. The solution is not this simple, we must go deeper.
RANKED WIN
Again, in all three games in their respective seasons, the team had defeated a Top 25 team within the three weeks leading up to the devastating defeat. In 2022 Purdue knocked off a ranked Minnesota squad three weeks prior to the Wisconsin wobble. In 2023 Louisville had stormed the field the week prior after taking down Top 10 Notre Dame (Harlow!) before the Pittsburgh plummet, and last year just two weekends before the Stanford stumble top ranked Clemson got put to sleep. But again this alone is not the answer…we need more.
ROAD KILL
All three of these games took place outside the friendly confines of Brohm’s home stadium, and while Camp Randall can be a bit rowdy with all the jumping around, the Heinz Ketchup Coliseum and the Stanford library are not known for their raucous environments. But ask any coach, and they’ll tell you that winning on the road is never easy, and a road trip in conference should absolutely be part of the equation.
GOING HOME
Once again, after looking into this trend I also uncovered that in every instance above the Brohm lead unit was playing a home game the following contest. No potential burnout due to back to back road trips looming after the game, so maybe there was a short sightedness knowing they returned back to West Lafayette/Louisville the coming week?? Add it to the mathematical statement!
BIG ONE COMING
The teams in all three instances had a very big game on the calendar within the next three weeks. Back in 2022 the Boilermakers had a ranked Illinois team coming to town for a shot to play in the Big Ten Championship. In 2023 the Cards had a ranked opponent in Duke looming two weeks later, and last year Louisville had the Governor’s Cup in just two weeks, a game they really wanted to get back on the right side of the rivalry. Another segment of the expression to be added.
So here we are. I’ve founds the trends, analyzed the data, and have lost at least 5 pounds and 3 months off my life. The formula is complete, the calculations have been run, the computer has analyzed it all, and I’m officially out of pretzel crumbs. In all it’s glory, the equation we must all use moving forward to forecast the dreadful and agonizing ‘Jeff Brohm Clunker’…
Pretty straight forward right?
So lets get to the meat of it….where’s the clunker in 2025??? I dropped my formula into the most sophisticated computer I could locate to help find the answer. I chatted with twenty seven different AI bots, and while I think one of them has developed an inappropriate fascination with me, and I have all the tools to start my own real estate business, I also found the answer to the equation for the upcoming season. Which game is going to catch the Brohm lead Cardinal by surprise and shake up the college football landscape? Which game is going to frustrate the fans and have no reasonable explanation for it’s results? Which game fits the ‘Jeff Brohm Clunker’ algebraic equation?!?!?……….NOT A SIGNLE ONE!!
Don’t trust me, look at the math…
The Cards must have a BYE week the week before or the week after: Possible Candidates include James Madison, Bowling Green, Virginia, and Miami.
The Cards must have a ranked win within three weeks prior to the slip up. The first opportunity for a ranked win will likely be Miami, meaning candidates include Boston College, Virginia Tech, and California
The team has always been on the road, not dropping one at home. Possible Candidates include Pittsburgh, Miami, Virginia Tech, and SMU.
The Cards must have a home game their next contest. Possible candidates include Eastern Kentucky, James Madison, Pittsburgh, Miami, Virginia Tech, California, and SMU
The Cards must have a big game (ranked/rivalry) within three weeks after the clunker. While I don’t know who will be ranked we can take a good guess Miami, Clemson, and SMU will be. Possible candidates include Bowling Green, Pittsburgh, Virginia, Boston College, Virginia Tech, and California.
Scan the lists. Scan it twice. Try to find one. Try some more. The strawberries taste like strawberries, the snozberries taste like snozberries, and not a single team checks all the boxes needed to qualify as a certified clunker threat. Alert the media. This is the year the curse is broken. Let’s play football.
(Editors note: Virginia Tech checks a lot of boxes….but we ain’t worried about it, right?)
