With opening night (for the Bucks) just three days away, I want to highlight something we haven’t really discussed yet: this will be the first time we’ll see a Jon Horst-constructed team without Giannis Antetokounmpo. Moreover, this marks the first rebuild Horst has ever spearheaded (even if nobody wants to call it that). As obvious as these facts are… they feel incredibly notable! Let’s discuss.
Jon Horst took over as Milwaukee’s general manager in 2017 at a time when the team was already ascending
on the back of a burgeoning superstar. That is not the path most GMs take. Generally, the incoming GM builds the team from the ground up and nurtures it from a low point to (hopefully) a high point. No, Horst took the reins with the full understanding that Giannis was going to be special, and he needed to optimise everything around him (and do so quickly).
And he did. So much so that the Bucks GM was awarded the NBA’s Executive of the Year for the 2018-19 season, where his shrewd moves—identifying Mike Budenholzer as the right coach, signing Brook Lopez on the bi-annual exception, picking guys like Pat Connaughton off the scrap heap, trading for George Hill—led the team to 60 wins and an Eastern Conference Finals appearance.
From there, it was all systems go. The team clearly had the capacity to win titles, and Horst acted accordingly. He has never been in a position where his job wasn’t to aggressively build around number 34, and for good reason—Giannis was, indeed, that good. To Horst’s benefit, one of GA’s special features was that he would “deodorise” many problems—stenches—that lay beneath the surface. He made poor defenders look less damaging than they truly were (sorry, Bobby) and maximised the skill sets of limited offensive players (hello, Taurean). GA has shown throughout his career that his presence alone generates a heap of wins and covers up a heap of flaws.
Like, not to sound flippant, because building a contender is not simple, but at a basic level, if Horst plugged in the right archetypes around Giannis—another All-Star-level player, shooting, defence, and tertiary playmaking—the team would win ~50 games like clockwork. I know I took that for granted a little bit over the years, just the consistent force that Giannis became. 30, 10, and six. Year after year after year.
Well, Giannis is gone now, and Horst has to operate like the other ~25 GMs without the luxury of building around an apex predator. No offence, but let’s not pretend that San Antonio GM Brian Wright is some all-knowing genius. They tanked at the right time—which, granted, does require some tactical nous—got lucky, and drafted Wemby; that’s 60% of the job done. These guys are once-in-a-generation talents, and if you land one, they’ll make you look extremely smart.
Alas, the Bucks have no other option but to soldier on and build this thing from the ground up—something Jon Horst has never done, as I mentioned. So, without the draft as a fallback for a while, how does the Bucks GM move this team forward sustainably over the coming years? How does he build the team in a fashion that highlights its new best players and their skill sets? For example, Horst has searched almost exclusively for shooting centres for the past eight years. How up to speed is he on what to look for in a rolling centre? These are the sorts of questions that go through my head (I should really see someone about that).
Additionally, how crafty is he on the margins from a trade standpoint? Make no mistake: “bad teams” can still get involved in transactions and generate small wins; we saw that in the Caris LeVert deal, where Horst took on an unwanted contract and got two second-round picks. Nice! We need to see more of that. The Bucks have always been the team that asks a bad side to take their unwanted contract; now they get to leverage win-now teams.
Overall, Horst has a bunch of stuff in front of him, disparate parts that may or may not fit together. There are young guys, young-ish guys, older guys (who, given truth serum, would probably prefer to be elsewhere), and a bunch of players who sit in between. What the heck does he do with all of that? Hey, I loved his coaching hire and his rookie selections, but there are many more tests to come.
But you know what? I couldn’t be more excited. Like, don’t get me wrong, pressure is a privilege. Rooting for a team that’s been all-in for the last eight years was exhilarating in a way that won’t be replicated for a while, but I’m also incredibly excited to barrack for the new-age Bucks differently. Yes, wins will probably be much scarcer than what we’re used to, but crucially, I now won’t be watching with the sole goal of desperately hoping Milwaukee wins. Now, there are other lenses to view the team through, such as:
- Tracking the development of a team filled with players whose best basketball is ahead of them, not behind, including lottery picks!
- Learning about a brand-new coaching staff’s goals and philosophies.
- Analysing how the front office operates differently as a rebuilding team, as I mentioned.
Ultimately, though, Jon Horst is driving this ship, and there is no precedent to guide us on how he’ll operate, which makes me equally excited and nervous.
