There is an impression among many New York Giants fans that because he has only a half-sack through his first nine games, that No. 3 overall pick Abdul Carter has been a disappointment.
So, if that is true
how is that NFL analyst Bill Barnwell of ESPN still believes Carter will win NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year honors?
The answer is that if you look beyond the sack total the numbers tell a far different story about how impactful Carter has been.
Barnwell says:
The sacks will come. Carter has only a half-sack to his name through eight games, but the underlying pressure metrics suggest that there’s a lot more happening. He has been the best rookie pass rusher in the NFL, and that has been by a considerable margin.
Per NFL Next Gen Stats, Carter has 34 pressures. No other rookie has more than 17. He has 20 quick pressures, the immediate victories that help blow up plays before they form. No other rookie has more than nine, and Carter’s total is third among all players (trailing only Nik Bonitto and Will Anderson Jr.). He hasn’t been excellent against the run, a teamwide problem for a Giants defense that ranks last in EPA per play against designed rushes this season, but Carter’s time is coming. Don’t be surprised if he has a more visible second half.
Brandon Thorn, one of the best offensive and defensive line analysts in the business and author of ‘Trench Warfare’ on Substack charts a statistic called ‘True Pressure Rate.’
Thorn ranks Carter 15th in the league in ‘True Pressure Rate,’ which he defines as pressure minus sacks. Carter’s TPR is 23.0.
For reference, Kayvon Thibodeaux (17.8) is 35th. Brian Burns, who leads the league with 11.0 sacks, is not in the top 50.
Thorn charts a stat called “High Quality Pressures.” He defines those as “A 1-on-1 (or 1-on-2) QB hit or hurry against an above (or below) average blocker due to the rusher’s skill, move(s) and/or athletic ability.”
Carter is 18th among all NFL pass rushers with 12 high quality pressures. Thibodeaux is 40th with eight. Burns is 47th with seven.
In pass rush snaps per pressure, Thorn has Carter with a pressure every 7.9 rush attempts, 23rd among all rushers. Thibodeaux is 49th at one pressure every 11.8 rushes. Burns is not listed.
In pass rush snaps per high quality pressure, Carter is again the best Giant. At one high quality pressure for every 17.6 rush attempts, Carter is 29th. Thibodeaux is 42nd. Burns again is not listed.
We see a similar trend in the Pro Football and Sports Network Impact Score.
Carter is ranked No. 26 in impact among edge defenders with an 81.3 score. Burns is 28th (80.8). Thibodeaux is 36th (77.8).
All of that is just meant to say, don’t go thinking Carter has been a bust. That couldn’t be farther from the truth.
