Magomed Ankalaev and Alex Pereira have done this dance once already, but it never felt like their story was over.
How could it be with Pereira having gone out in such uninspiring fashion, having failed to solve the Ankalaev puzzle over the course of 25 minutes back in March. On Saturday, in the main event of UFC 320, “Poatan” gets his chance to prove his poor performance was the result of one bad night and not one terrible matchup.
Ankalaev, the UFC’s new light heavyweight king, wants to settle once
and for all that he has always been the man to beat at 205 pounds. Undefeated in 14 straight fights, Ankalaev is knocking on the door of the all-time greats, trailing only Jon Jones (20), Anderson Silva (16), Islam Makhachev (15), and Kamaru Usman (15) for the longest unbeaten runs in UFC history. He’s not just out to close the door on a rivalry, he seeks to rival the achievements of some of the most dominant fighters in MMA history.
There’s seemingly less buzz around Saturday’s co-main event, as Merab Dvalishvili continues his inexorable march towards bantamweight GOAT-ness—a goal one could argue he’s achieved already. A dominant win over Cory Sandhagen for his third straight title defense solidifies his case, but don’t expect the hungry Sandhagen to just roll over for him. As bumpy as Sandhagen’s contender path has been, he’s always loomed as a dangerous challenger and now he gets to bring his booming brand of violence into Dvalishvili’s world.
In other main card action, Jiri Prochazka and Khalil Rountree duel to be the next man up at light heavyweight, Josh Emmett plays featherweight gatekeeper to Youssef Zalal, and Abus Magomedov puts Joe Pyfer to the test in a middleweight contest.
What: UFC 320
Where: T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas
When: Saturday, Oct. 4. The five-fight early preliminary card begins at 6 p.m. ET on ESPN+ and Disney+, followed by a four-fight preliminary card airing on ESPN+ and Disney+ at 8 p.m. ET. The five-fight main card begins at 10 p.m. ET exclusively on ESPN+ pay-per-view.
(Numbers in parentheses indicate standing in the MMA Fighting Global Rankings and Pound-for-Pound Rankings)
Magomed Ankalaev (1, P4P-6) vs. Alex Pereira (2, P4P-10)
I believe Alex Pereira when he says he was at less than 100 percent for his first fight with Magomed Ankalaev. But couldn’t that be said of almost every fighter when it comes time to step in the cage?
Even if you believe the Pereira we saw in Fight 1 was the worst version of him yet in the UFC, you can’t discredit Ankalaev’s tactics. For five round, he neutralized the most dangerous puncher in the game and he did it with smart footwork and timely grappling. Whatever issues were plaguing Pereira ahead of the fight, the main reason he lost is because Ankalaev was better than him.
That doesn’t mean that will hold true in the rematch. Fight sequels often play out in starkly different fashion than the original and if Pereira is right, he’s not only in much better shape now, he expects to be far more aggressive hunting Ankalaev in the octagon. However, it’s that mind set that could end up costing him everything.
Ankalaev is a great striker, despite often being perceived as dull (would it surprise you to know only Chuck Liddell, Shogun Rua, and Khalil Rountree have more UFC knockouts than him?). It’s true, he can be technical to the point of monotony, but if Pereira is offering to play the daredevil, then this could lean even more heavily in Ankalaev’s favor.
Picture this: Pereira is turning up the heat, building up to a fight-ending flurry, and then WHAMMO, a perfect counter leaves him out cold on the canvas.
I see it.
Pick: Ankalaev
Merab Dvalishvili (1, P4P-4) vs. Cory Sandhagen (3)
I really want to pick Cory Sandhagen! Can’t do it.
Sandhagen has so many ways to hurt people. He can brutalize you with athletic strikes from all angles, he can pummel you with ground-and-pound, he can attack your ligaments, he’s just a nasty fighter. There’s no reason he can’t do some damage to Merab Dvalishvili. The man is human, after all.
But picking against Dvalishvili’s *ahem* “Machine”-like dominance is just foolish. Maybe Sandhagen can rock him early. Maybe he can stuff a few takedowns. Heck, maybe he scores a couple of takedowns of his own. It’s in the championship rounds where Dvalishvili will turn it on, though, and few have been able to do much of anything with him when the pedal is all the way to the metal.
I still believe Umar Nurmagomedov is the man to dethrone Dvalishvili and he’ll get another chance someday. For now, it’s Dvalishvili all the way, no matter how badly Sandhagen wants this.
Pick: Dvalishvili
Jiri Prochazka (3) vs. Khalil Rountree (T5)
Khalil Rountree has defused plenty of potent strikers in his day, but I don’t know if he has an answer for Jiri Prochazka, one of MMA’s premier chaos merchants.
On his rise to the top, Rountree established a well-deserved gimmick as the Glory Kickboxing killer after taking out Gokhan Saki, Karl Roberson, and Dustin Jacoby. His UFC 307 war with Alex Pereira and then a bounce-back win against Jamahal Hill only bolstered that reputation. Rountree has the skills and smarts to go toe-to-toe with anyone in the division. Oh, he’s got some juice in those fists, too.
One of Prochazka’s greatest strengths is his unpredictability and that’s where I feel Rountree could struggle. You can be doing everything right against Prochazka and then the next thing you know there’s a spinning elbow going through your skull. Rountree is capable of making sharp reads, but what good are reads when the book is being written on the fly?
Prochazka and Rountree will feel each other out for a round before the berserker voices in Prochazka’s head take over and he blitzes Rountree for a finish in Round 2.
Pick: Prochazka
Josh Emmett (10) vs. Youssef Zalal (13)
Josh Emmett can KO anyone, but I don’t like his chances of tracking down the slippery Youssef Zalal.
In his fourth straight victory since re-signing with the UFC last year, Zalal showed how much he’s matured as he out-struck Calvin Kattar for two rounds before letting up on the gas in the third. He makes the most of his tall frame, utilizing leg kicks and the threat of the takedown to dull his opponents’ offense. His submission game is a looming threat, but I doubt he’ll get much of a chance to use it against Emmett, who has always had strong grappling defense.
Emmett’s best bet is to pressure early and not let Zalal set up his range striking. Much easier said than done. There’s an 11-year age gap between these two and in the featherweight division, that kind of speed and agility imbalance is even more pronounced.
Zalal has plenty of tools with which to outwork Emmett and in the end, youth might be the most valuable one of all. He takes the decision.
Pick: Zalal
Abus Magomedov vs. Joe Pyfer
Hey, who wants to see Abus Magomedov wrestle? Because he should do that.
Don’t get me wrong, Magomedov can hit plenty hard and I’m sure there’s a part of him that wants to go bonus-hunting and just slug it out with Joe Pyfer. But the path to least resistance lies in mixing the martial arts, something Magomedov has shown he’s more than capable of during this recent win streak.
Besides, drawing a few boos is probably better than just standing there and hoping not to get hit by Pyfer’s fastball right hand. Pyfer is still a work in progress and though he probably learned a lot from going 15 minutes with Kelvin Gastelum, I think he has plenty of catching up to do to match Magomedov technique for technique.
As a fan, I’m hoping Magomedov just goes in swinging so we can get some dumb middleweight fun. If I’m his corner though, I’m shouting at him to put Pyfer on his back and take the win any way you can get it.
Pick: Magomedov
Preliminaries
Ateba Gautier def. Treston Vines
Edmen Shahbazyan def. Andre Muniz
Farid Basharat def. Chris Gutierrez vs.
Daniel Santos def. Joo Sang Yoo
Macy Chiasson (T5) def. Yana Santos (12)
Patchy Mix (12) def. Jakub Wiklacz
Punahele Soriano def. Nikolay Veretennikov
Austin Vanderford def. Ramiz Brahimaj
Veronica Hardy def. Brogan Walker
