After playing for first place in the SEC on Saturday, the Kentucky Wildcats now sit in 8th place in the conference (losing tie breakers) after two straight losses.
With their backs against the ropes and a very real path where they are on the NCAA Tournament bubble, the Wildcats travel to play the Auburn Tigers
, who have lost five straight and are fighting just to get back into the NCAA Tournament picture.Now led by Steven Pearl, Bruce Pearl’s son, Auburn has the talent to compete with anyone, but
similar to Kentucky, they have lacked consistency. They have key wins over St. John’s, Arkansas, and Florida on the road, and only lost to Houston by a point. Of their 12 losses, seven have come against ranked opponents.
Two desperate teams, a great conference environment, and a primetime slot should provide a great game for fans and an opportunity for each program.
Let’s take a look at the matchup.
Guard Play
Analytically, Auburn’s defense is the second-worst in the SEC, only ahead of Oklahoma. They really struggle defensively in their backcourt, giving up several big performances to some of the league’s best guards, most recently Mississippi State’s Josh Hubbard, who lit up the Tigers for 46 points, 35 of which came in the first half.
Kentucky’s guard play has carried Kentucky offensively of late. This could be another opportunity for Denzel Aberdeen, Collin Chandler, and Otega Oweh to have big games en route to another big road win, just as they have against Arkansas, LSU, and Tennessee. They will need to, as Auburn’s offense is top 10 nationally.
To beat them, that trio is likely going to have to combine for 50+ points.
No pressure.
Don’t Beat Yourself
In Kentucky’s last two losses, to Florida and Georgia, you can point to one stretch that cost them the game. Against Florida, it was the first 10 minutes of the game. Against Georgia, it was the final 10 minutes of the first half. What do those stretches have in common? Kentucky beat itself.
Turnovers, lack of ball movement, lack of urgency. All things that are fixable, and Kentucky has shown improvement on, but continue to pop up in games.
The Wildcats need to start putting full games together and execute for 40 minutes to beat a talented offensive team like Auburn.
Foul Trouble and Depth
Auburn attempts the second-most free throws in the country, drawing more than 20 fouls per game. In an environment like Neville Arena, expect the officiating to favor them, given human nature, meaning Kentucky has to play disciplined defense, and will likely battle foul trouble. They will need players to step up, especially in the frontcourt.
Against Florida, Malachi Moreno was limited to just 21 minutes due to foul trouble. In his place, Brandon Garrison played 17 minutes, recording 0 points, 3 rebounds, and 5 fouls. You are going to struggle in SEC games when getting that little production from your backup big.
Mark Pope doesn’t like to give up size, but you could see Kentucky play some smaller lineups in short spurts because of this.
Players to watch
G Keyshawn Hall 6-7, 225 lbs
- 21.0 PPG (17th nationally)
- 7.0 RPG
- 41.6% 3P
G Tahaad Pettiford 6-1, 170 lbs
- 15.0 PPG
- 3.6 APG
- 38.6% FG
F KeShawn Murphy 6-10, 230 lbs
- 10.8 PPG
- 7.2 RPG
- 55.6% FG
Kentucky Basketball vs. Auburn Tigers
- Time: 8:30 PM ET on February 21, 2026
- Location: Neville Arena in Auburn, Alabama
- TV Channel: ESPN
- Announcers: Tom Hart and Jimmy Dykes will call the action.
- Online Stream: WatchESPN and the ESPN app.
- Radio: Tom Leach and Jack Givens will have the call on the UK Sports Radio Network.
- Replay: WatchESPN and the ESPN network (check local listings)
- Rosters: UK | AU
- Stats to Know: UK | AU
- KenPom: UK | AU
- Team Sheet: UK | AU
- Odds: FanDuel Sportsbook has yet to release the odds, so check back for those. ESPN gives the Wildcats the strongest chance to win at 41.3%. KenPom (38%) and EvanMiya (36.5%) are close behind. BartTorvik is the most pessimistic at 33%.
- Predictions: While the metrics have Kentucky as the underdog, the score projections expect a close game, all picking Auburn to win by five points or less. EvanMiya (81-78) and Haslametrics (79-76) have the Tigers winning by three. KenPom has the Wildcats losing by four points, 81-77, and BartTorvik has them losing by five points, 82-77. Kentucky has some big wins on the road this season with their backs against the wall, which is why I think they leave Auburn with the win. I’m going with an 80-76 victory, Kentucky!
Send us your predictions in the comments section!
And as always, Go CATS!
