Mackenzie Dern made her UFC debut way back in March 2018 opposite the unheralded Ashley Yoder.
Widely expected to dominate, the bout was unexpectedly close and a ultimately a sign of things to come. Dern
won a split-decision, but the jiu-jitsu ace looked uncomfortable on her feet and struggled to consistently ground her opponent. More than seven years later, we could still point to that pair of issues even in Dern’s strongest performances and best victories.
That’s not to say that Dern has completely failed to improve. Rather, her career and growth have consistently followed a two steps forward, one step backwards pattern. In October 2019, for example, Dern suffered her first career defeat when Amanda Ribas defended her takedowns and picked her apart. She rebounded with a greater commitment to the takedown and some improvement to her right hand, which helped her scrape by Virna Jandiroba in their first 2020 encounter. Then, two years after the Ribas loss, she was defeated again when Marina Rodriguez defended her takedowns and picked her apart.
Dern combines world-class grappling and unusual knockout power with a habit of underwhelming in the Octagon. There is no connective tissue between her striking and jiu-jitsu, which can leave her stranded and hittable on the feet. That was the case in the 2019 Ribas loss, the 2021 Rodriguez defeat and her two most recent losses to Amanda Lemos and Jessica Andrade, which took place less than two years ago.
After each of those fights, Dern has returned to the drawing board and come back a little better. Usually, this produced a win or two that reinspired some hope in her future. Then, the old disconnect pops back up and reveals the flaw still remains. When Dern started working with Jason Parillo, the improvement was more noticeable in her jab’s snappiness and the drive behind her double leg shot. Their collaboration produced some of the sharpest work of Dern’s career, but once she stopped working with the famed boxing coach, she instantly regressed.
Two steps forward, one step back.
Time and time again, we’ve seen Dern bounce back after failing to live up to her potential. At 32 years of age and nearly a decade into her pro career, however, Dern should be done with the backwards steps stage. She should be in her prime ahead of the biggest opportunity of her life at UFC 321, her title rematch versus Jandiroba. There is no more time for missteps, not while the division is wide open.
Dern’s chances of capturing Strawweight gold plummet if Zhang Weili returns to town.
All of Dern’s inconsistency and struggles have led to this bout. If she can internalize those lessons, she walks away with UFC gold and a second victory over Jandiroba. If she fails, there’s not going to be a better opportunity or more favorable matchup — the belt will escape from her reach for good.
