The New England Patriots have not participated in the NFL playoffs since 2021, but their hot start this year has put them in a favorable position to finally return to the tournament. Winning their fifth game of the season on Sunday against the Tennessee Titans, the Patriots are the current No. 2 seed in the AFC and have one of the best statistical outlooks of any team in their conference.
In fact, according the playoff simulator over at The Athletic, the team has a 92% chance of qualifying for the playoffs
at this point in time. Only one team in the entire league — the top-seeded Indianapolis Colts (96%) — has a higher postseason probability than New England at the moment.
Whether or not the Patriots will live up to the simulation remains to be seen. The mere fact that they are even in the conversation just seven games into Mike Vrabel’s tenure as head coach is nothing short of impressive, though, and a positive sign for the future.
With all that said, let’s take a look at the playoff picture seven weeks into the 2025 NFL season.
AFC playoff picture after Week 7
- Indianapolis Colts (6-1)
- New England Patriots (5-2)
- Denver Broncos (5-2)
- Pittsburgh Steelers (4-2)
- Buffalo Bills (4-2)
- Los Angeles Chargers (4-3)
- Jacksonville Jaguars (4-3)
On the bubble: 8. Kansas City Chiefs (4-3), 9. Cincinnati Bengals (3-4), 10. Houston Texans (2-4)
Not technically eliminated but let’s be real here: 11. Las Vegas Raiders (2-5), 12. Cleveland Browns (2-5), 13. Baltimore Ravens (1-5), 14. Miami Dolphins (1-6), 15. Tennessee Titans (1-6), 16. New York Jets (0-7)
There is a clear split in the AFC between teams fighting for the playoffs and the bottom-dwellers. As a consequence, it seems that no more than 10 teams appear to have realistic hopes of making it into the tournament after Week 7. Obviously, there is still plenty of football to be played before the standings are finalized, but any other team beyond maybe the Texans entering the playoff conversation would be a surprise.
This, in turn, also means that the Patriots — who will be going up against the easiest slate of games in the NFL down the stretch — have only a handful of teams to worry about as direct competition for a playoff spot. Two among them, the Bills and Bengals, are on their schedule still.
The NFC playoff picture, meanwhile, looks as follows
NFC playoff picture after Week 7
- Green Bay Packers (4-1-1)
- San Francisco 49ers (5-2)
- Philadelphia Eagles (5-2)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-2)
- Detroit Lions (5-2)
- Seattle Seahawks (5-2)
- Los Angeles Rams (5-2)
On the bubble: 8. Chicago Bears (4-2), 9. Carolina Panthers (4-3), 10. Dallas Cowboys (3-3-1), 11. Atlanta Falcons (3-3), 12. Minnesota Vikings (3-3), 13. Washington Commanders (3-4)
Not technically eliminated but let’s be real here: 14. Arizona Cardinals (2-5), 15. New York Giants (2-5), 16. New Orleans Saints (1-6)
The NFC playoff picture saw a shakeup in Week 7. After previously being led by the Buccaneers, Tampa’s loss to the Lions on Monday night pushed them from the top spot and allowed the Packers to take over.
Overall, the NFC is much more open and competitive than the AFC at this point in the season: there are only four teams with losing records, compared to double the amount in its counterpart conference.
