Thanks to a legendary shot from Braylon Mullins, UConn men’s basketball is heading to their eighth Final Four this weekend in Indianapolis. It’s the team’s third Final Four in the last four years, meaning the Huskies have a shot at three national titles in that same span.
But unlike 2023 and 2024, UConn is far from a favorite to cut down the nets in Indy. The Huskies are underdogs in their Final Four matchup against Illinois and have the lowest national title odds out of any team left standing. Of
course, UConn was also dead in the water against Duke until they weren’t. All four teams left standing in Indianapolis could easily win the national championship, and the Huskies will need to run that gauntlet in order to secure their seventh title.
Here’s two reasons why UConn can win it all once again, and a few reasons why they can’t.
Why UConn can win the national championship
Championship DNA
It sounds corny, but it does matter a lot that UConn has so many guys that have done this before. Alex Karaban has won more NCAA tournament games than just about anybody. Solo Ball, Jaylin Stewart and Jayden Ross have been to the Final Four before and logged minutes. And then there’s Dan Hurley, maybe the best coach in the sport, who has coached the Huskies to back-to-back titles. Following UConn’s epic comeback against Duke, Hurley mentioned that the team’s winning culture allowed them to stay composed and chip away at what felt like an impossible task.
“It takes strong men. It takes a strong team. It takes a tough team. It takes strong men. It takes a bunch of players that let us coach them, let us coach them hard. That starts in June. We run a very intense program,” Hurley said after the Duke game.
“We put a lot of pressure on them on a daily basis to do the right things, to do everything at game speed, to do everything hard, to do everything tough, to be prepared because that’s what it takes to win games like this or to stay in a game like that where you’re getting outplayed.”
UConn may not be the most talented team left on paper, but the experience with the rhythms of the Final Four may be the edge the Huskies need.
Tarris Reed’s ascension
Tarris Reed is otherworldly right now. While he put the tournament on notice with his 31-point, 27-board double-double in the First Round against Furman, his performance against Duke was his best game yet. The former Michigan transfer had 26 points, nine rebounds and four blocks against the Blue Devils, singlehandedly keeping UConn in contention in the first half.
There’s just no other big man left playing at Reed’s level right now. If he can keep it going, he gives the Huskies an undeniable advantage in the post that few teams will be able to stop. The parallels (and stats) to Adama Sanogo’s 2023 title run are eerily similar.
Why UConn can’t win the national championship
The offense has struggled
Aside from Reed, UConn’s 3-point shooting has been a serious issue. The Huskies are just 27-93 (29 percent) from three during the NCAA tournament. Granted, the Huskies did hit threes when it mattered against Duke, but another cold shooting weekend likely means an early Final Four exit. If Mullins, Karaban and Solo Ball aren’t able to hit from deep, teams will be more willing to double Reed in the post and pack the paint.
UConn also has some history going against them. Nineteen of the last 21 national champions had an offensive efficiency inside the top 10. The Huskies currently rank 28th and have no shot moving into the top 10 no matter how the offense performs against Illinois. Michigan, Arizona and the Illini all are within the top five in offensive efficiency, with the Illinois ranking first.
The silver lining? UConn has been the exception to the rule, with the 2011 and 2014 title teams breaking the mold. The Huskies’ offense this season ranks higher than both of those squads, and the defense is still one of the best in the country at No. 9 in defensive efficiency.
Demary Jr., Stewart dinged up
Silas Demary Jr. had some key baskets in the Duke comeback, but the Georgia transfer is still recovering from an ankle injury he suffered in the Big East Tournament title game. He played only 23 minutes in the Elite Eight and the same amount in Sweet 16. If the Huskies want to cut down the nets in Indy, Demary Jr. needs to be healthy enough to play more minutes. As the team’s top perimeter defender, his size and length are crucial to shutting down the elite offense left in the tournament. While Malachi Smith has been excellent filling in for Demary, this team is still at his best when Demary is healthy and Hurley has maximum roster flexibility.
The same can be said for Jaylin Stewart, who missed eight games with a knee injury before returning last weekend. Stewart was more banged up than Demary, totaling just eight minutes in Washington D.C., and will likely still be banged up in Indianapolis. Stewart’s size and versatility made him a mainstay in some of the Huskies’ most efficient lineups this season, and would be massive asset to have against the size the Illini and either Arizona or Michigan offer. With him likely still hurt, Hurley will have to pick and choose his minutes wisely. Against competition this good, it is a massive disadvantage to not have the roster at full strength.
