Despite the Green Bay Packers’ best efforts to crush fans’ dreams with back-to-back losses in brutal fashion, the team is still in a great position to make it into the playoffs. While the Packers can’t
clinch this week, after the choke job in Chicago, they do have an opportunity to lock in a spot as soon as next week.
As it stands right now, the New York Times/The Athletic playoff simulator gives the Packers an 82 percent chance to make it to the postseason (including a 10 percent chance of winning the division). Here’s how the next two weeks look for Green Bay.
If the team beats the Baltimore Ravens next week and the Minnesota Vikings the week after, they’re in. The Detroit Lions, the only team outside the playoff bubble that still has a chance at a wildcard spot, would be unable to make up the distance on Green Bay in this scenario.
If the Packers just beat the Ravens or just beat the Vikings, their chance to make the playoffs hovers between 83 percent and 84 percent. If you’re doing the back-of-the-napkin math, here, yes, the NYT simulation already basically predicts that Green Bay will drop one more game in the regular season, but it still believes that the Packers will make the postseason.
Really, the only thing that Green Bay has to worry about is the Lions going undefeated for the remainder of the season, along with the Packers dropping at least one.
For the most part, you can basically bank on Green Bay being the seventh seed in the postseason. If they win out, though, the simulation gives the Packers a 30 percent chance of still winning the NFC North, but they’ll need some help to get that done. The only way this happens is by the Bears losing their next two (against the San Francisco 49ers and Detroit Lions) while Green Bay wins its next two.
So, no, the season isn’t over yet, even though the team hasn’t performed well as of late. The simulation has the Packers making the postseason 42 percent of the time, even if they lose their last four games of the season. It’s been a very odd hand that Green Bay has been dealt.
Completely on the table is the possibility of the Packers punching a playoff ticket after a heartbreaking month of games to end the regular season.
