Note: As you may recall, I like to do select play breakdowns from each week. However, this week I’m away from my usual editing setup, so I won’t be able to put those together. Instead, I’ll be linking to breakdowns of some plays I’d like to highlight from a few of my favorite Bears and football content creators.
People, it feels so good to be back.
The long hibernation from Chicago Bears football is finally over, and boy did we wake up with a roar.
In a game that featured very little defense, the Chicago
Bears took down the Carolina Panthers 59-37. I’m sure many of you have already heard some of the gaudy numbers and records put up by a Bears offense led by Caleb Williams and coached by offensive guru Ben Johnson, but for those who may have missed a few of them, let’s do a quick recap.
It was the highest-scoring season opener in NFL history, with both teams combining for 96 points, breaking the previous mark of 88 set by the Buccaneers and Saints in 2018.
The 59 points scored by Chicago set a franchise record for the most points in a season opener. They were also the most points the Bears have scored in any game since December 7, 1980, when they absolutely smoked the Green Bay Packers 61-7.
And the records didn’t stop there.
Chicago racked up 552 yards of total offense, the most the franchise has ever produced in a season opener and tied for the seventh-most in Bears history. It was also the second time in Ben Johnson’s tenure that Chicago has eclipsed 500 yards of offense, joining the ridiculous 576-yard performance against Cincinnati last season.
Among those 552 yards, the Bears saw both D’Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai rush for more than 100 yards, marking the second time in just seven regular-season games that the duo has accomplished the feat. Before Swift and Monangai first did it against Philadelphia last November, you had to go all the way back to 1985, when Walter Payton and Matt Suhey each rushed for more than 100 yards against the Lions.
Not to be outdone, or left out of the record book, Caleb Williams set a Bears franchise mark of his own.
With another two touchdown passes against Carolina, Williams has now thrown for at least two touchdowns in eight consecutive games, including the playoffs. The streak dates all the way back to December 7 against the Packers at Lambeau Field and is now the longest such streak by a quarterback in Bears history.
And somehow, after scoring 59 points and piling up 552 yards, the prevailing feeling inside the Bears locker room was that they still left points on the board.
That might be the craziest part of all of this.
For me personally, it was one of the most memorable opening games to a Bears season since 2012, when Chicago kicked off the year with a 41-21 win over the Indianapolis Colts.
For more information including scoring key, game-by-game grading sheets, weekly grading scorecards, and an overall look at his 2026 season, you can view Caleb’s entire season workbook here.
Benchmarks
Stat Formatting Key: (Last Season totals are underlined, Last Season averages in Italics, and this week’s stats appear in regular text.)
C/A: 330/568 (58.1%) | 19.4/33.4 (58.1%) | 21/29 72.4%
Yards: 3942 | 231.9 | 269
Touchdowns: 31 | 1.8 | 4
Turnovers: 8 | 0.5 | 0
QB at Fault Sacks: 13 | 0.8 | 0
aDOT: 8.9 | 10.7
Passer Rating: 90.1 | 124.1
True Passer Rating: 125.8 | 173.6
Time to Throw: 3.00s | 3.04s
Time to Pressure: 2.67s | 2.56s
Pressure Rate: 30.84% | 41.46%
On-Target Rate: 67.6% | 84.0%
Poor Play Rate / Big Play Rate: 9.0% PPR / 7.6% BPR | 4.7% PPR / 11.6% BRP
EPA per dropback: +0.11 | +0.54
ANY/A: 6.8 | 9.7
Game Scorecard
The full grading sheet for each play can be foundhere.
Game Notes
Note: Last year, I included PFF grades in these breakdowns. With PFF continuing to expand its use of AI across its platform, and with my confidence in how accurately its grades reflect quarterback performance declining, I’ve decided to move away from them this season. In their place, I’ll be using PFN’s Impact Score, which will be notated as PFN on grading sheets moving forward.
- NFL Passer Rating / True Passer Rating / PFN:IS: 124.1 / 173.6 / 87.7
- The average NFL passer rating through Week 1 of the 2026 season sits at 95.3, putting Williams’ 124.1 NFL Passer Rating well above the league average and firmly in the range of a very good to near elite performance based off that metric.
- A 173.6 TPR represents an elite game in my model, with 100 serving as the baseline for “Average.”
- Caleb had just one start during the 2025 season north of a 170 TPR, when he posted a 187.7 against the Dallas Cowboys in Week 3. He has now already matched that total in one game.
- On the PFN scale, where 75 represents an average qualifying quarterback and 90 represents elite territory, Williams’ 87.7 Impact Score was one of the best performances of Week 1.
- His 87.7 ranked third among all quarterbacks for the week.
- Williams averaged a 74.9 Impact Score during the 2025 season, which ranked 20th among quarterbacks. Needless to say, he’s off to a much hotter start in that metric this year.
- On-Target Throws: 2025 Season Average: 67.6% | Week 1 vs. Panthers: 84.0%
- Reminder: Completion percentage ≠ On-Target Percentage. On-target throws are only measured on aimed passes, meaning throwaways, spikes and passes deflected at the line of scrimmage are excluded. Drops, however, can still count as on-target throws.
- Short-Level Passing (Behind LOS–9 yards): 15/15 | 100.0% On-Target
- Deep-Level Passing (10–20+ yards): 6/10 | 60.0% On-Target
- Williams had just one start during the 2025 season in which he topped an 80.0% On-Target Rate: Week 15 against the Cleveland Browns, when he also finished at 84.0%.
- One start into the 2026 season, and he has already matched his best mark from a year ago.
- It also represents a massive improvement from where he started last season. Against the Minnesota Vikings in Week 1 of 2025, Williams posted just a 41.7% On-Target Rate. One year later, he more than doubled that number in his season debut.
- Poor Play Rate / Big Play Rate: 4.7% PPR / 11.6% BPR
- Williams averaged a 9.0% Poor Play Rate in 2025 compared to a 7.6% Big Play Rate.
- He’s off to a much better start in both categories this season, recording just two poor plays across 43 graded plays while producing five big plays against Carolina.
- The best of the bunch was his 22-yard touchdown throw to Cole Kmet, a perfectly placed ball with linebacker Devin Lloyd draped over Kmet in coverage.
- Time to Throw: 3.19 seconds
- Williams posted a 3.19-second Time to Throw, 0.19 seconds higher than his 2025 season mark.
- As we know by now, that number can be somewhat deceiving with Williams. A portion of it is inflated by his uncanny ability to extend plays, escape pressure and keep his eyes downfield rather than simply taking what would otherwise be a dead play.
- Under Pressure: +0.66 EPA per dropback
- Williams was particularly dangerous when pressured against Carolina, leading all quarterbacks in Week 1 in EPA per dropback while under pressure, according to PFN using TruMedia data, at +0.66 EPA/dropback.
- Using the same pressure charting for a more traditional look at his performance, Williams completed 4 of 8 passes for 96 yards and a touchdown, good for a 133.3 passer rating.
- And that doesn’t account for what he did with his legs, where he added two rushing touchdowns on scrambles.
- A Tale of Two Halfs?: Well, not really. Despite a pretty jarring difference between the scores for each half (6.60 vs. -0.30) Caleb was tasked to do less within the second half, sticking to underneath routes that focused on moving the chains while the ground game took over. 6 of his 9 second half completions either resulted in a first down or touchdown, while he also scrambled for a 1st down in the half as well. A couple a negatively graded throws weighs down the second half grade a little, but overall he took what the defense gave him, and did his part near the end to reward Jah’Dae Walker for the game he had with a 1-yard layup.
Play Reviews
The plays we’ll be reviewing are presented in the order they occurred in the game.
Situation: 1st Quarter, 3rd and 10 CHI27 09:49
Play Grade: Good
Result: 15-Yard Completion to Luther Burden III
Notes: (+) Medium Level Accuracy (+) Situation – Long 3rd Down Conversion (+) Anticipation
Situation: 2nd Quarter, 1st and 10 CAR41 14:48
Play Grade: Average
Result: 19-Yard Completion to Kyle Monangai
Notes: (+) Accurate Short Level Throw
Situation: 2nd Quarter, 1st and 10 CAR41 14:05
Play Grade: Elite
Result: 22-Yard Touchdown to Cole Kmet
Notes: (++) Anticipation (+++) Deep Level Accuracy/Ball Placement (+++) Explosive Play Leading to Score
Situation: 2nd Quarter, 2nd and10 CHI47 0:38
Play Grade: Great
Result: 24-Yard Completion to Luther Burden III
Notes: (+) Medium Level Accuracy (+) Explosive Play (++) Anticipation
Summary
Williams finishes Week 1 with final grades of 1st Half (6.60) / 2nd Half (-0.30) / Game (6.30), earning a “Great” grade to open the 2026 campaign.
That 6.60 first-half grade is also the highest grade I’ve given out for any individual half since I began grading.
Among every game I’ve graded, this performance ranks in the 93rd percentile, it also is his second highest graded game in his career, and his best graded game since week 10 in 2025, against the Giants. It was truly a great performance against a Carolina defense that entered the season with significant expectations after being heavily retooled during the offseason, and Williams did it on the road in the sweltering Charlotte heat.
Of the five quarterbacks I’ll be grading throughout this season (Caleb Williams, Cam Ward, Jayden Daniels, Jordan Love, and Tyler Shough), Williams finished first in Week 1.
For a look at how all five quarterbacks graded side-by-side, you can see that here.
Williams starts his 2026 campaign well on the right track and will now head back to Chicago for his home debut against the Minnesota Vikings next week.
We’ll also be back to doing full play breakdowns moving forward.
Until then, Bear Down!
Gary Baugher Jr. is a second year contributor to WCG, bringing football insight backed by over 16 years of experience in organized football and more than 30 years as a passionate fan of the game. You can follow him on Twitter at @iamcogs.
