The Cubs lost the first two games of 2025 between these two teams in Japan — and then took four of the next five. It’s too bad the Cubs lost their division series to the Brewers, because I think a Cubs/Dodgers NLCS last year would have been awesome. Maybe this October.
For this Dodgers series preview, I welcome Molly Knight to BCB. Molly and I randomly ran into each other last year in Tokyo, which she wrote about at her Substack newsletter The Long Game. We’ve become good friends, and I’d like to strongly
encourage all of you to sign up for The Long Game, a fantastic community of baseball fans. Here’s Molly on the Dodgers.
There’s good news and bad news for the Cubs as they head into Chavez Ravine for a three game set against the Dodgers this weekend.
The good news is LA has looked mortal this week, going a lackluster 3-4 against the Rockies and Giants on the road. The bad news is that this is mostly because Shohei Ohtani and Kyle Tucker haven’t been hitting, which figures to sort itself out soon.
The Dodgers starting pitching has been dominant this season, which is a huge shift from their last two World Series winning seasons — especially 2024 when they white knuckled it through the post-season with Jack Flaherty, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, some scotch tape and bubblegum.
That was Yamamoto’s rookie season, and he has since established himself as one of the best pitchers in the game, and a postseason God. Again, good news here for the Cubs is they won’t have to face Yamamoto, or Shohei Ohtani (who is leading the National League with a 0.38 ERA as a side quest this year), or Tyler Glasnow, who just tossed 8 shutout innings against the Giants on Thursday.
In their last 15 games, the Dodgers have had their starters go at least 6 innings in 11 of them. The team is second in the majors in average length of start.
The biggest surprise on the starting pitching front has been Justin Wrobleski, a lefty who looks like Timotheé Chalamet’s beefy older brother. Wrobo was used as a swing man last year and found his groove in the World Series getting huge outs in relief. He parlayed that effort into a spot in the Dodgers starting rotation while Blake Snell is on the shelf nursing a sore shoulder.
He’s been terrific in three starts (1.88 ERA), but his numbers might indicate he is due for a regression (only 9 Ks in 24 IP). He does not miss a ton of bats, but he’s been pounding the zone with strikes, going eight innings against the Mets and seven at Coors Field without issuing a walk in his last two turns.
His strike throwing is really all the Dodgers need out of their number 6 starter, as they have been the best defensive team in baseball so far this season (22 defensive runs saved). When teams put the ball in play against LA it usually results in an out.
Friday’s starter Emmet Sheehan has just been OK. His velocity is down, and he and the Dodgers swear it’s due to a mechanical issue rather than an injury — which, fine.
Saturday’s starter Roki Sasaki has been a hot mess, and is the most likely of the lot to either head to the bullpen or to Oklahoma City once Snell returns to sort himself out.
On the offensive side, Andy Pages has been one of the hottest hitters on the planet, ditto for Max Muncy and back-up catcher Dalton Rushing — who will probably catch Sunday and be used as a pinch hitter on Friday and Saturday.
The Dodgers have been getting more production from the bottom of their lineup than the top, which is odd and won’t last. The main reason the team is in the midst of its worst week of the season is Mookie Betts is hurt, Freddie Freeman missed a few games while on the paternity list, Edwin Diaz had surgery for loose bodies in his elbow, and Ohtani is grounding out to first base like that’s what he’s being paid $700 million to do.
The thing about Ohtani — and probably every great slugger mired in a slump — is it will probably take one swing to turn him back into Baseball Jesus, and there is a high likelihood that will happen against the Cubs this weekend. This is a man who stunk during the first three games of the NLCS six months ago, took on-field batting practice instead of his usual underground cage work, and then proceeded to hit three home runs while firing six shutout innings in a game — enough to win the NLCS MVP. He is not human.
As the Dodgers will be playing the Cubs without their top three SPs this weekend, their game plan will be to keep the game close, hope their prodigious offense wakes up from its three-day dirt nap, and use their terrific bullpen to lock down close wins. Tanner Scott is closing in Edwin Díaz’s place now, and looks great after a terrible 2025. Alex Vesia has yet to give up a run. Both of these men throw with their left hand (as do Jack Dreyer and Wrobo), which will not help PCA or Ballesteros.
Like you guys, I’ve been waiting for PCA to get right after signing that huge contract extension. He went to high school here at Harvard-Westlake, and I interviewed him for The Athletic when he was drafted by the Mets back in 2020 (good trade, btw). He loves playing at Dodger Stadium, loves to needle Dodger fans, and this series might give him the juice he needs to get off the schneid.
I picked the Cubs to beat the Dodgers to make the NLCS this year, so I hope they don’t embarrass me!
Fun facts
When the Dodgers were based in Brooklyn, through 1957, the Cubs had a .474 winning percentage there (328-364-6).
Since they moved to Los Angeles, the Cubs’ percentage when visiting the Dodgers is just .437 (160-206).
In all 2,147 games, the Dodgers have won 17 more, 1,075-1,058, with 14 ties. They have outscored the Cubs by just 12 runs, 9,203-9,191.
The Cubs won two of three at Dodger Stadium each of the past three years, after having gone 2-10 the previous three, including seven straight losses in 2021-22, three the first year and four the next.
(Courtesy BCB’s JohnW53)
Probable pitching matchups
Friday: Jameson Taillon, RHP (1-1, 3.97 ERA, 1.279 WHIP, 6.06 FIP) vs. Emmet Sheehan, RHP (2-0, 5.85 ERA, 1.400 WHIP, 5.15 FIP)
Saturday: Colin Rea, RHP (3-0, 3.00 ERA, 1.042 WHIP, 3.31 FIP) vs. Roki Sasaki, RHP (0-2, 6.11 ERA, 1.868 WHIP, 6.37 FIP)
Sunday: Shōta Imanaga, LHP (2-1, 2.17 ERA, 0.724 WHIP, 2.90 FIP) vs. Justin Wrobleski, LHP (3-0, 1.88 ERA, 0.875 WHIP, 3.02 FIP)
Times & TV channels
Friday: 9:15 p.m. CT, Apple TV (how to watch). Apple announcers: Wayne Randazzo, Dontrelle Willis and Heidi Watney.
Saturday: 6:15 p.m. CT, Fox-TV (regional — coverage map). Fox announcers: Joe Davis and John Smoltz.
Sunday: 3:10 p.m. CT, Marquee Sports Network, MLB Network (outside the Cubs and Dodgers market territories)
Prediction
The Cubs are hot, obviously, riding their nine-game winning streak. The Dodgers lost four of six on their just-completed road trip, but are 9-3 at Dodger Stadium so far this year. As Molly noted, the Cubs don’t have to face the top Dodger starters this series. The pitching matchups look slightly favorable to the Cubs, so I think the Cubs can take two of three (fingers crossed).
Up next
The Cubs head down the California coast for a three-game series against the San Diego Padres beginning Monday evening.
