There’s been a lot of smoke around the idea of the Royals trading Michael Wacha and Seth Lugo. A lot of it has come from the media, including Jim Bowden and Andy McCullough of The Athletic, one who proposed an unlikely trade to the Cubs and the other who said the Royals need to bite the bullet and make it happen. Certainly, Royals Review writers have repeatedly begged for it to happen.
But one question keeps coming up, including from the Royals’ own front office: If the Royals trade Wacha, who will
pitch next season?
Well, there are actually a lot of candidates. They may not all seem appealing at first glance, but well, let’s take a closer look at them, shall we? Here’s a list, courtesy of Suff76’s Feed post (Thanks for doing all that work so I didn’t have to!):
First, I want to mention a few guys that got left off Suff76’s list who could also be options.
Michael Lorenzen has a club option for next year that doesn’t feel particularly likely to be picked up. Yes, he’s been awful this year, but the underlying numbers suggest he’s actually pitching somewhere between as well as he did in 2024 and 2025. If he came back to the Royals, could they help him make the most of what he’s got again? He wouldn’t be projected to be as good as Wacha, but he’d also be cheaper. And he might be comparable to Lugo.
Tatsuya Imai has an opt-out, or player option if you prefer, after the conclusion of this season. He’s set with an AAV of $18 million and another opt-out after that, so maybe he doesn’t take it this time, considering how poorly his first season with the Astros has gone. But he has also pitched slightly better than his numbers, and his biggest problems have been walks. That’s something he struggled with when he was younger in Japan but had seemed to figure out in the last couple of years. I’d bet on him improving it again, and if the Royals could either sign him or trade for him, I’d like their odds of helping him.
Jordan Montgomery hasn’t pitched in the big leagues since 2024, but he’s currently rehabbing in the Rangers’ system. It hasn’t gone spectacularly, but he’d be someone you could consider on a bounce-back contract for next season.
Now we can jump into the list.
Kevin Gausman isn’t the problem for the Blue Jays this year. He hasn’t pitched poorly, and his metrics suggest he’s pitched better than his numbers with an unusually low strand rate. Even at 36, he’s striking out more than a batter per inning, and while he’s making a lot of money this year, his next contract will probably be for less than Lugo will make. I’d actually be very excited about a one- or two-year deal for him at $12-$14 million per year.
Shane Bieber is 33 and was still really good when healthy last year, but appears to have lost all semblance of command this season. He’s maybe not someone you want to rely on, but if you can get him for seven digits, you can pray for health and a bounce-back. You might get lucky and get the really good Bieber again.
Jack Flaherty was one of the top pitchers dealt at the 2024 deadline and then returned to Detroit on a two-year deal. He’s actually been better than you probably think, and he’s only 30. Like almost everyone else on this list, you don’t want to give him a ton of money, but he’s not a free agent to completely ignore either.
Clay Holmes is on the opposite side of the spectrum from most of the guys we’ve discussed so far. His 2.39 ERA is probably a performance a bit beyond his skis. That said, if you can pay him like the 4.00 SIERA guy he’s actually been, it could work!
Shota Imanaga is probably my favorite target on this list. I’ve long coveted adding a splitter to the Royals’ pitching repertoire, and he brings a good one. He surprised everyone after opting out of his Cubs deal by taking the Qualifying Offer they made, and his ERA is almost identical this season to last, but with more strikeouts and groundballs. At age 32, if you’re looking for someone to be who Wacha and Lugo were when the Royals first signed them, he might be the guy you’re looking for.
Robbie Ray is a mystery wrapped in an enigma. It really just feels like you never know what you’re going to get from him. For that reason, I’d probably pass on him even though he’s in a second straight season with a sub-4.00 ERA. Let someone else pay him and roll those dice.
Zac Gallen took a significant step back in 2025 but was still much better than you probably realized. This year he’s been awful. He’s another guy I might give a small one-year deal to and see if you can fix him, but not a true Wacha/Lugo replacement.
Chris Bassitt is one of the best cases for the Royals trading Wacha and Lugo sooner rather than later. He came into his own in his early 30s as a starting pitcher but fell off a cliff this season at 37. And there’s a reason he struggled to find a contract; everyone else knew that was a strong possibility. Reminder: Lugo will be 37 next year while Wacha will be 36.
Tyler Mahle was always pitching over his head last year, but has actually improved in several key ways this year, including K-BB% despite having significantly worse results. At 31, he reminds me of 2023 Lugo/Wacha with less health and more walks. He’s probably not a great target to replace them, but the Royals will need pitchers in addition to replacements for them with Ryan Bergert, Cole Ragans, and Stephen Kolek shelved until midway through next season at least.
Brady Singer could be a reunion target. But his ERA has been on a steady rising pattern since his terrific 2022 season. He still has no offspeed pitch, and unless he’s finally willing to actually work on one, the Royals should probably pass.
Zach Eflin had Tommy John surgery at the start of the year. He might be back to start next season, but I’m not writing his name in pen anywhere, especially not in the Royals rotation.
Trevor Rogers is the second Oriole on this list, and he’s right up there with Imanaga on my list. He had a breakout 2025 season, and the Orioles were counting on him to be an ace this year. Unfortunately, he regressed a bit and hasn’t been nearly as good. Still, he’ll only be 29, and the Royals would be one of the teams I think could help him find his 2025 form again.
David Peterson is yet another guy with some secondary metrics that suggest he should have had better results than he’s shown. Certainly worth a look for his age-31 season next year.
Matthew Boyd has been very good when healthy, but he’s had a really hard time staying healthy with a pair of IL stints already this year. The Royals already have a really good lefty who can’t stay on the field; they probably shouldn’t mess with Boyd. But if he could be had for cheap, I don’t mind adding him – just not as a Wacha/Lugo replacement.
Taijuan Walker was so bad that the Phillies decided to cut him. He’s currently a free agent. The Royals might consider him to replace Lugo and Wacha this year because they need the innings, but he’s not someone I’d consider for next season without an astonishing finish to 2026.
Jameson Taillon is our third of three Cubs pitchers. A lot of his underlying metrics say he’s the same guy he was last year, but this year, when batters hit the ball, they hit it hard. You can probably pass on him.
Jeffrey Springs was one of the guys helping to power the Athletics to their surprising start, but he fell off and he fell off hard. I’m not saying there’s no value to be had with him, but if I were a GM, I think I’d only go to him as one of my last resorts.
Dustin May is a really interesting guy. He’s having a career year at age 28, seeming to have finally put all the pieces together in St. Louis. But he also has a 4.59 ERA thanks to a really rough July that appears to have been kick-started by his awful performance in Kansas City on June 21. He rebounded in his last start. He might be fun, but I think with his pedigree and the bounceback, someone will want to pay him a lot, and I don’t trust him enough to do that myself. If you can pay him like Wacha, though, sure, do it.
Nick Martinez is one of the weirdest pitchers I can think of. He rarely gets any respect during the season, but he gets paid every offseason and puts up respectable numbers. I don’t want to be the one holding the bag when it all crashes around him, though.
Zack Littell appears to have already fallen off the cliff at age 30. He’s a guy you can sign to be a Lorenzen-esque swingman, but he’s no Wacha/Lugo.
Lucas Giolito can’t stay healthy, and he’s walked more than he’s struck out when he’s been on the mound this year. Pass.
Before we even get to the summary of all that, I want to talk about how the Royals have spoken of Lugo and Wacha. The team has argued that if they trade either of those guys, they’ll need to find a replacement in free agency. That’s true; they don’t have anyone close to ready in their farm system. But it also relies on the faulty assumption that Lugo and Wacha will be at least as good next year as they are this year. Refer back to my comments on Chris Bassitt. There simply is no guarantee, or even a likelihood, that Lugo and Wacha will be quality pitchers next season. If the Royals aren’t going to be willing to carry large payrolls, they can’t afford to pay guys like Lugo and Wacha to be bad. They should get rid of those salaries now and find cheaper replacements from the above list.
Speaking of the list. Yes, there are some absolute duds on there. But there are some dudes, too. None of these are top starting pitching free agents. As Suff76 notes, the Royals probably won’t be involved in the bidding for Tarik Skubal, Michael King, Casey Mize, or even Freddy Peralta. By my math, that still leaves five or six guys that the Royals could target to replace Wacha and Lugo. I don’t think any of them would cost more; several could cost less. Even without dumping Lugo and Wacha’s salaries next year, the Royals are set to spend about $60 million less than they are this year, according to Roster Resource.
Consider that both sides of the current CBA negotiations are aiming toward some sort of spending floor/encouragement, the Royals might find themselves needing to spend even more than that next year. They’ve got room to spend on multiple pitchers. They could even sign several of those guys that I was less sure about with the idea that everyone can compete for the rotation and whoever doesn’t make it goes to the bullpen. The team has done a much better job scouting starter talent than reliever talent, so maybe that’s how they can do an end-around on the problem.
If you’re curious, here is my list of guys I’d consider adequate Lugo/Wacha replacements at similar or lower salaries, acknowledging that I don’t know what the coaching and scouting staff know about who would need what help, whether the team can provide that help, or whether any of them would be interested in pitching for KC:
- Shota Imanaga
- Trevor Rogers
- Kevin Gausman
- Jack Flaherty
- Dustin May
- David Peterson
- Tatsuya Imai
Here’s the list of guys I’d take a look at for the rotation after replacing Lugo and Wacha:
- Shane Bieber
- Zac Gallen (He’s right on the edge, though, if the Royals think they can fix him)
- Robbie Ray
- Jordan Montgomery
- Clay Holmes
- Nick Martinez
And here, just for fun, is a StatCast comparison of all of the potential replacement pitchers from above in 2026 to how Wacha and Lugo were pitching in 2023:
There’s a lot of blue on that image, to be certain, but none more than Lugo (except maybe Peterson, yikes!) That said, it seems like people have forgotten that Lugo and Wacha were not considered amazing pitchers before they came to KC. They weren’t awful, but no one thought they’d end up being All-Stars in Kansas City. Certainly no one figured either would get Cy Young Award votes. If the Royals could do it with Lugo and Wacha, they can do it again. Randy Dobnak is somehow a serviceable starter and getting better every time out for KC after not throwing as many as ten big league innings for FIVE YEARS since 2021. Don’t look me in my face and tell me they can’t work some magic with some or even many of these guys.
And if they can’t do it again, then none of it matters anyway because even if Lugo and Wacha are good next year and the year after that (big ifs), they won’t be good forever.
