It’s finally here, the big day. The NBA Lottery takes place Sunday. Is it the biggest day for the Nets franchise history since the move to Brooklyn? Hardly. That would be “Clean Sweep” back in June 2019 when the Nets signed Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving and DeAndre Jordan. (Less said about what happened next the better.)
That said, it is huge, for all the obvious reasons plus some less obvious that we’ll learn about in the days and weeks ahead. Maybe years! In the meantime, here’s a preview.
The Basics
- The NBA Draft Lottery takes place in Chicago in separate rooms at the McCormick Place convention center
- ESPN coverage of the NBA Lottery will begin at 3;00 p.m. ET. The actual drawing takes place in secure room where reps of the 14 lottery teams gather. Also present, 16 media reps, none of whom cover the Nets as their primary beat.
- Vince Carter, Hall of Famer who played four years with the New Jersey Nets, will be on the dias along with the reps of the other Lottery teams. He will be the only member of the Hall on the dias and only one of two former players, the other being John Wall who will represent the Wizards.
- Joe Tsai will be stationed in the room where it happens: the secure Draft Room where the ping pong balls are drawn from the hopper and order established. He will be the only owner – aka Governor — in the Draft Room
- Mr. Whammy, aka Bruce Reznick, will also attend as a guest of Tsai.
The Draft Order
Fourteen
teams qualified for the Lottery. In order of their final regular season records:
- Washington Wizards
- Indiana Pacers
- Brooklyn Nets
- Utah Jazz
- Sacramento Kings
- Memphis Grizzlies
- New Orleans Pelicans
- Dallas Mavericks
- Chicago Bulls
- Milwaukee Bucks
- Golden State Warriors
- Los Angeles Clippers
- Miami Heat
- Charlotte Hornets
Of the fourteen teams, two will have to give up their picks due to previous trades: the Pelicans traded their first rounder to the Hawks last year in return for Derek Queen. The Clippers traded their first to the Oklahoma City Thunder as part of the Paul George trade in 2019.
Teams’ second round picks are not dependent on the Lottery. The Nets currently have the 33rd (their own) and 43rd (acquired from the Suns as part of a trade for the Nets 2025 second rounder last year.)
Draft Odds
The Nets, along with the Wizards and Pacers, have a 14.0% chance at the overall No. 1; a 13.4% chance at the overall No. 2; a 12.7% chance at the overall No. 3 and a 12.0% chance at the overall No. 4, for a total of 52.1% at a top four pick. Brooklyn also has a 14.8% chance at No. 5, a 26.0% chance at No. 6 and 7.0% at No. 7.
The Nets have never won the Lottery while in Brooklyn. In 2000, with 4.4% odds at the No. 1, they got the overall No. 1 and chose Kenyon Martin. Brian Lewis wrote about that Draft earlier in the week. Here is their overall record which is mixed…
Over the past 15 NBA Drafts, the Nets have had a single lottery pick, No. 8 last year which they used on Egor Demin. Prior to that, their most recent pick was the No. 3 pick in the 2010 when they took Derrick Favors who they traded four months into the season as part of the Deron Williams trade.
Here’s the full lottery odds…
In the Draft Room
Literally, the room where it happens. The group of 14 team reps along with representatives of the league and 16 media witnesses will join the accounting firm Ernst & Young who runs the lottery. All will be told to remove any communications devices prior to entering the room. The room is sealed. Here’s how the NBA describes what happens next:
The drawing uses 14 ping-pong balls, numbered 1 through 14. There are 1,001 possible combinations when four balls are drawn out of 14, without regard to their order of selection. Before the lottery, 1,000 of those 1,001 combinations will be assigned to the 14 participating lottery teams.
For the drawing, all 14 balls are placed in the lottery machine. They are mixed for 20 seconds, and then the first ball is drawn. The remaining balls are mixed in the lottery machine for another 10 seconds, and then the second ball is drawn. There is another 10-second mix, and then the third ball is drawn. There is a final 10-second mix, and then the fourth ball is drawn. The team that has been assigned the combination of the four balls drawn from the machine will receive the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NBA Draft.
The ping-pong balls are then placed back in the machine and the same process is repeated for the second through fourth picks. If the same team comes up more than once (or if the one unassigned combination is drawn), then the result is discarded and another four-ball combination is drawn.
The 20-second and 10-second intervals at which the balls are mixed in the machine are monitored by a timekeeper who faces away from the machine and signals to the machine operator that the applicable period of time has elapsed.
Envelopes will then be prepared with the logos of each team and dispatched by Ernst & Young to the studio and deputy commissioner Mark Tatum. The Draft Room will remain sealed until Tatum completes reading the final draft order. So, Joe Tsai will be the first team official to know the Nets fate but will not be able to tell anyone outside the room till after Tatum announces the draft order.
The Big Reveal
Tatum will open the envelopes in reverse order (i.e., the 14th pick first and the first pick last). No one on stage will know the order. If ESPN and the NBA follow recent history. Tatum will open the envelopes for the 14th through the 5th picks first. If the order of picks does not match the reverse order of lottery teams, in other words if the 10th team is missing from the order of picks, that means said team has moved up to the top four. ESPN will take note. It could happen more than once.
Should the Nets wind up with the 5th, 6th or 7th pick, call it a day at that moment. The Lottery will be over for he Nets and their fans. If not, they will have to deal with the (dreaded) commercial break before the top four are announced. Finally, after picks No. 4 and No. 3, the most dramatic moment arrives, the announcement of top two picks. As Tatum opens the envelope containing the logo for the team that won the No. 2 pick, the No. 1 pick will also be revealed by process of elimination.
Post-Game
ESPN will interview reps of the winning team. They will also talk to prospects. In the past, stationary live cameras have been set up in the offices of all the lottery teams to record the staff reaction.
Don’t be surprised to hear from Brian Windhorst who was among the 16 media reps in the Draft Room about how things went down and Shams Charania about ramifications, including possible trades.
Prediction
WE’RE NO. 1!!!
