The Dallas Cowboys have very possibly not yet defined what “rock bottom” could look like on this 2026 season, but any version of sinking lower than they are right now would involve a second straight loss to a losing team this upcoming Sunday afternoon. The Cowboys are at the Colts, who have not won in over a month.
Many things about this matchup make it feel like it’s an opportunity sitting on a tee for Brian Schottenheimer’s team to get back in the win column, and just maybe make the run-in to Thanksgiving
interesting.
It’s time for our weekly look at how the Cowboys can keep alternating wins and losses by bouncing back in week nine, or how they could send this season farther down the drain with another bad loss.
The Dallas Cowboys will beat the Indianapolis Colts if…
…they don’t turn the ball over.
Old friend Daniel Jones at QB for the Colts is the next opponent for the Cowboys to put pressure on, both with their defense (more on that later) and ideally the offense too, by possessing the ball and scoring touchdowns. Jones is 1-8 in his career against the Cowboys, from his past time with the Giants, with four touchdowns and six interceptions in these nine games.
At all three levels of the Colts defense right now, they have problems. Up front, they just traded away DeForest Buckner. At linebacker, Akeem Davis-Gaither will be out on Sunday, with the team already starting rookie C.J. Allen at one of the linebacker positions. In the secondary, former Cowboy Charvarius Ward and Sauce Gardner have not played up to potential and are prone to being beat over the top, and committing costly penalties. Nickel defender Justin Walley is also ruled out against the Cowboys.
The Colts also have the worst turnover differential in the league this season, and have been minus three in two of their last three games, both divisional losses. They do not have a game with a positive margin, and their only neutral game was still a 34-22 loss to Mike McCarthy’s Steelers.
With CeeDee Lamb telling the media this week he views the Cowboys offense as beating themselves more than anything, there should be no excuse to not execute the basics against the Colts. Not every drive has to end in points, but not having the focus to stay on the field in short-yardage situations, not getting backed up by unforced penalties, and not finding ways to get the ball to Lamb and George Pickens in space to lean on the Colts all afternoon with this highly-paid offense would be an abject failure.
The Colts defense has not taken the ball away once throughout their active four-game losing streak. If the Cowboys don’t turn the ball over and give the Colts extra life and short fields to keep the game close, the talent differential in this matchup should reveal itself and allow the Cowboys to get out of Indy with a win.
The Dallas Cowboys will lose to the Indianapolis Colts if…
…they don’t get to Daniel Jones.
Colts star running back Jonathan Taylor might be the obvious choice as the potential game-wrecker against the Cowboys defense in this matchup, especially considering the Colts main objective may actually be getting Taylor’s trade value up with a big game against a Dallas defense torched by Tyler Allgeier last week.
Allgeier was certainly a big factor in how the Cardinals made their comeback in Arlington last Sunday, but when the game clearly came down to Gardner Minshew needing to make a throw, he did so as well for the real backbreaking plays against Christian Parker’s defense.
The Cowboys also sacked Jacoby Brissett four times last week, but only got to Minshew once with Quinnen Williams doing so in overtime. Daniel Jones was sacked three times last Sunday against the Jags. He was sacked four times against a Vikings defense that blitzed him at a relentless rate that literally broke records for how often a defense could blitz. The week before that, he was sacked six times against the Titans. The Steelers defense only got to Jones once, but still swung the game in their favor by forcing Jones to drop back 44 times compared to 24 total rushing attempts for the Colts in week five.
In Jones’ last four starts against the Cowboys, all losses, he’s been sacked 16 times. Narrow this down to the last two games, and the Cowboys have won by a combined score of 60-15 with eight sacks, and also three interceptions.
Whether it’s with the blitz or trusting Williams, Rashan Gary, and Donovan Ezeiruaku up front, Parker’s defense needs to make pressure the priority against this Colts offense. The coverage is not good enough to hold up for long enough periods of time to be trusted more than the Cowboys should trust their ability to get to Jones before he can even throw the ball, and the same goes for run defense. Sacks to get the Colts behind the chains is what this defense should be after more than anything.
If the Cowboys continue to struggle finishing around the quarterback and allow Jones to extend plays, it will equally keep Jonathan Taylor as a threat in this game, and could make for a longer than anticipated afternoon trying to beat a team that’s already waved a white flag.
