The NFL regular season creeps ever closer; 16 days from today, the Los Angeles Chargers will face the Kansas City Chiefs at Arena Corinthians São Paulo, Brazil. But before kickoff, The Athletic’s Austin Mock ran his annual projection model to see how the AFC will fare. For the Chargers, it’s bleak. They’re projected 8.5 wins and their playoff odds stand at 39.6%.
“Harbaugh’s Chargers are also coming off a playoff appearance last season, but the devastating preseason injury to offensive tackle Rashawn
Slater gives my model some doubt about what their ceiling can be this year,” Mock wrote. “QB Justin Herbert will need to take the next step if they’re going to end their division title drought.”
The Chargers rank third in the projection model within the division, with the Chiefs ranking No. 2 (10.9 wins; 82.9% playoff odds) and the Denver Broncos at No. 6 (9.2 wins; 53.5% playoff odds). The Chargers face a mighty challenge with not only the conference, but the division being a gauntlet. Mock sees the AFC West as the best (and toughest) division in the conference.
“It’s not shocking that the best division in the AFC boasts three coaches (Kansas City’s Andy Reid, Denver’s Sean Payton and the Las Vegas Raiders’ Pete Carroll) with Super Bowl rings and a fourth (the Los Angeles Chargers’ Jim Harbaugh) who has one of the highest winning percentages in NFL history,” Mock wrote.
The model remains confident in the Chiefs’ reign, but not as almighty from previous years. But the Broncos are the ones projected to the majority of cases not championed by the Chiefs.
“The Chiefs are who they are at this point: the favorites until someone knocks them off the pedestal,” Mock wrote. “Still, this division is strong, and it won’t be an easy road for them. In fact, my model only has the Chiefs winning the division 60 percent of the time. Payton’s Broncos are next up at 21 percent, as they look to build upon a wild-card berth in 2024, a stellar rookie season from quarterback Bo Nix and an elite defense.”
